Crimean recapture of Ukraine?
Military experts explain chances of success
Created: 08/19/2022, 17:26
By: Julia Schöneseiffen
Within a week there were several heavy explosions in Crimea.
The question now is whether Ukraine can recapture the peninsula.
Simferopol - The heavy fighting in the Ukraine war continues.
Within a week there had been two heavy explosions in Crimea.
On August 9, the explosions shook the Russian air base in Saki, and a week later, according to the Crimean administration, an ammunition depot in the north was hit.
It is unclear who is responsible for the attacks.
However, in mid-June 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promised his compatriots that he would recapture Crimea, which had been annexed by Russia.
“The Ukrainian flag will again fly over Yalta and Sudak, over Jankoy and Yepatoria.
Of course we will also liberate Crimea.”
Recapture of Crimea: access to the peninsula is heavily secured
But how likely is Crimea to be recaptured by Ukraine?
Many experts consider this unlikely at this point in time.
After the first Crimean explosions last week, military expert Prof. Carlo Masala told the
world
: “I consider it an unrealistic war goal under the current conditions that Crimea should be liberated”.
This is mainly due to the fact that Ukraine lacks both the personnel and the material to conquer Crimea.
Military expert: There is a lack of personnel for a Ukrainian recapture of Crimea.
(Iconic image) © Evgeniy Maloletka/dpa
In addition, access to the Black Sea Peninsula is secured mainly through the Kretsch Bridge.
This is the direct connection between Crimea and mainland Russia and "is easier to defend than to attack," according to Masala.
As a result, military strategist Mauro Mantovani told the Swiss newspaper
Blick
that there had been no Ukrainian attack on the Kerch bridge .
"An attack on this bridge seemed less promising than attacks on the other two targets.
The bridge is particularly well protected against air raids and rocket fire.
Attacks in Crimea: "I think recapture is unthinkable"
Nevertheless, Mantovani can imagine that both Crimea and other areas occupied by Russian troops can be recaptured.
In the short term, retaking Kherson Oblast is realistic, the expert told
Blick
.
"In the long term, however, also the restoration of Ukraine in the borders of 2013".
This would also include the recapture of Ukraine's Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
On the other hand, Russia expert Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck, like expert Masala, considers a conquest of Crimea by the Ukraine to be unlikely.
Russia has had plenty of time to militarily build up Crimea and will do everything possible to prevent Crimea from being lost, Mangott told the
editorial network Germany (RND)
on August 11.
"I think it's unthinkable that Russia will allow Crimea to be recaptured."
(jsch)
