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Wind | Observatory: The eastern convective clouds in the Philippines are about to move in a few days or form a tropical cyclone

2022-08-19T11:12:28.994Z


The weather in Hong Kong near Japan is unstable, cloudy and sunny. The observatory wrote that today (19th), a broad trough of low pressure affected the northern part of the South China Sea to the coast of Guangdong, and a weak low-level vortex center could be vaguely found in the satellite cloud image.


The weather in Hong Kong near Japan is unstable, cloudy and sunny.

The Observatory wrote that today (19th) there is a broad trough of low pressure affecting the northern part of the South China Sea to the coast of Guangdong. A weak low-level vortex center can be vaguely found in the satellite cloud image. However, due to the large vertical wind shear in the northern part of the South China Sea, it is not conducive to tropical cyclones. It is predicted that a broad trough of low pressure will still bring unstable weather, and showers and thunderstorms are expected in Hong Kong today and tomorrow (20th).


The Observatory also stated that another vast convective cloud cluster in the northwestern Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has begun to "just about to move", and pointed out that the development of the convective cloud cluster has the opportunity to form a tropical cyclone in the next few days, possibly close to the Luzon Strait to the southeastern coast of China. Its strength and path are uncertain.


▼On the evening of August 18, there was lightning in the cloud on a sunny day▼


Early this week, high-altitude disturbance encountered strong vertical wind shear and did not form a tropical cyclone

The Observatory wrote an article today that it was mentioned earlier that there would be high-altitude disturbances affecting the northern part of the South China Sea on Tuesday (16th) and Wednesday (17th), and the chance of forming a tropical cyclone cannot be completely ruled out.

However, the area of ​​low pressure eventually failed to develop into a tropical cyclone, and was described as: "gently crossing the waters south of the Pearl River Estuary."

▼The Observatory issued a yellow rainstorm on August 17▼


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The Observatory explained that the "cause of death" of the low-pressure area was due to the strong vertical wind shear in the northern part of the South China Sea, which caused a deviation between the convective cloud clusters associated with the low-pressure area and the center of its low-level vortex, and some low-level vortex centers were exposed. destroy its convective structure.

Although the low pressure area has little impact on the winds in Hong Kong, the related unstable weather brought heavy rain to Hong Kong. From 4:00 p.m. to about 6:00 p.m. on Wednesday (17th), the Observatory issued a yellow rainstorm warning signal, and many areas recorded more than 30mm of rainfall, more than 70mm in some parts of the New Territories, and more than 90mm in one hour in Tsuen Wan.

After the tropical cyclone is formed, or close to the Luzon Strait to the southeastern coast of China

The article also pointed out that another broad trough of low pressure will affect the northern South China Sea to the coast of Guangdong today. It will all go softly, leaving no strong wind area, but another broad convective cloud mass in the Pacific Northwest east of the Philippines has begun to move."

The Observatory explained that the latest European ensemble forecast system shows that a low-pressure system has the opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next few days, and may be close to the Luzon Strait to the southeastern coast of China, but the strength and path of the low-pressure system in major computer forecast models There are differences in development.

As for the intensity, there is still no coherent prediction of the intensity development of the low-pressure system from major computer forecasting models.

A low-level vortex loomed on the north side of a broad trough of low pressure in the satellite imagery at 8:30 a.m. on August 19.

(Photo from the Observatory's website)

The Central Meteorological Observatory also predicts a typhoon

Referring to the mid-term forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory in the Mainland, a typhoon may be generated on the northwest Pacific Ocean in the next 10 days.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has not seen any tropical cyclone formation, and the US Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts that the low-pressure area east of the Philippines may move towards Japan.

Nine Days Weather|The Observatory expects a thunderstorm and anticyclone to intensify today and tomorrow, with 8.23 ​​places of extreme heat reaching 34 degrees. The Observatory expects to continue to be hot and showery in the next two to three days. On Thursday, a tropical depression may approach the Observatory, or a tropical cyclone may develop. District Saturday at the Hong Kong Observatory The weather will be fine in the next one or two days, with two districts as high as 35 degrees. Next week, the "summer" is still very hot. The observatory is expected to welcome the extreme heat of 8.15 to 33 degrees. Sunshine Mainland predicts that 1 to 2 typhoons will still be generated in the next 10 days

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-08-19

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