Jeremy Stubbs: 'Both London and Paris have failed to stop illegal Channel crossings'

Jeremy Stubbs is President of the Association of British Curators in Paris and Deputy Editor of the journal

Causeur

FIGAROVOX.

- 1,295 migrants crossed the Channel on Monday August 22, a new record in one day.

How to explain it?

Jeremy Stubbs.

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The number of migrants crossing the Channel towards the English coast is constantly growing because, first of all, as Alexandre Dumas senior wrote, “

”.

The fact that so many people manage to make the crossing each month encourages more and more others to try their luck.

Another consequence of success is that the traffickers who are at the origin of this phenomenon make more and more profits: they can reinvest part of this money in more and more sophisticated operations to thwart the actions of the security forces. order on the French side and attract more and more customers, because these migrants are also customers.

While at first the crossing was mostly done in rather small and fragile canoes, they are now more robust and large enough to carry 50 or 60 migrants.

The usual price being around €6,000 per head, a 50-passenger canoe brings in €300,000.

Traffickers can launch advertising campaigns on online social networks announcing slashed prices.

Jeremy Stubbs

We have also seen that, when they deem it necessary, traffickers can launch advertising campaigns on online social networks announcing discounted prices.

The economic models of these criminals are therefore increasingly sophisticated.

From this point of view, the suspension of the British operation consisting in sending migrants to Rwanda is a godsend for the traffickers.

The latter can therefore emphasize the urgency: "Hurry to cross now, before the threat of Rwanda materializes!"

The last important element is the good weather which favors trouble-free crossings.

It was said that Russia was protected by General Hiver;

we can say that the English coast is made vulnerable by Admiral Summer.

La Manche is a very public, hyper-mediatised showcase.

The government therefore has a great need to reduce crossings and, if possible, close this route.

Jeremy Stubbs

According to the Press Association agency, 22,670 migrants have crossed the Channel since the start of the year compared to 12,500 on the same date in 2021. Is this a failure for the British Conservative government, which wanted to curb illegal arrivals by sea?

It's not yet a failure but we can't say that things are moving in the right direction!

In 2021, 28,526 migrants arrived in the UK through the Channel;

in 2022 we are already at more than 22,560;

and some forecasts give a potential total of 60,000 for the year.

According to a House of Commons report published on July 22, the total number of visas granted by the government in the previous twelve months was one million.

The number of migrants through the Channel would represent only 3% of this figure.

In addition, the United Kingdom is not the most requested country in Europe for asylum applications: in 2021, 48,000 applications were lodged there – less than in Greece, and much less than in Spain, France and Germany.

Yet the Channel is a very public, hyper-mediatized showcase for British immigration policy.

The government therefore badly needs to reduce crossings and, if possible, close this route.

On the migration issue, the French and British governments criticize each other.

Is the responsibility shared?

Where is Franco-British cooperation on the migration issue today?

The two governments are equally involved and, for the moment, both have failed, each on its own.

Nigel Farage, the former Brexiteer now star host for the GB News news channel, recently proclaimed that the British government should stop criticizing the French authorities and take responsibility for themselves.

On the other hand, representatives of French NGOs, notably Utopia 56 and France terre d'asile, interviewed by

on August 19, pointed to what they claim to be the poor reception conditions for asylum seekers in France. , conditions that encourage many to set their sights on the United Kingdom.

What is certain is that only a very high degree of cooperation between the two countries can reduce or put an end to this human trafficking.

Between 2021 and 2022, the UK is supposed to pay 64 million euros to France to contribute to the costs of operations on French soil.

Yet we know that relations between the leaders of the two countries are not looking good, while the master of political bursts, Gérald Darmanin, has not hesitated to put the blame on an insufficiently successful British labor market. regulated – an opinion that did not please across the Channel.

It must be admitted that France has its own difficulties concerning immigration, in mainland France and elsewhere, in particular in Mayotte.

What conclusions can we draw from Boris Johnson's "immigration plan"?

What would be likely to change in migration policy with the arrival of the new Prime Minister on September 5?

Boris Johnson's record is incomplete as the results of his policy are not yet apparent.

It ended the specific target of reducing the number of immigrants set by previous Conservative governments.

It is still too early to judge its main policy, based on the notion of chosen immigration.

The Rwanda policy is not yet a failure as it has not yet entered into force.

Since Brexit, the United Kingdom no longer has the possibility of returning migrants to the European countries from which they came.

Jeremy Stubbs

Cooperation with France has given some results all the same: according to the Ministry of the Interior, it has made it possible to dismantle 21 organizations of traffickers and to make 500 arrests.

The United Kingdom no longer has the possibility of returning migrants to the European countries from which they came, because since Brexit the Dublin regulation obviously no longer applies in its case.

No bilateral agreement with EU members has replaced it.

At the same time, the Dublin regulation was already not working very well.

The candidates for BoJo's succession, Truss (the probable winner) and Sunak [currently campaigning with members of the conservative party, editor's note], promise to continue the Johnsonian approach, competing with voluntarist declarations.

Both want to maintain the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Truss promises to no longer submit to the judgments of the European Court of Human Rights, while Sunak wants to set an annual limit on the number of asylum applications and perhaps house the applicants on ships.

Truss also talks of reconsidering the idea, abandoned by the government in February, of asking Royal Navy boats to push back migrant dinghies in French territorial waters.

The only way to prevent deaths is to prevent migrants from attempting the crossing, which means dismantling the gangs of traffickers.

Jeremy Stubbs

The report of the maritime prefecture of the Channel and the North Sea reports 30 dead and 4 missing at sea during the year 2021. Do the means implemented by the French and English governments make it possible to reduce this number?

According to the British authorities, since the beginning of the phenomenon of these sea crossings, there have been 166 deaths or disappearances.

The only way to prevent deaths is to prevent migrants from attempting the crossing, which means dismantling the gangs of traffickers.

It is obvious that the loss of life is to be deplored.

But it should be noted that these migrants, pushed and supervised by traffickers for this purpose, practice a form of blackmail: they put themselves in danger on the Channel so that we can come to their rescue.

Then, when they are rescued from their canoes, they throw useful items – like telephones – into the water to make them appear more helpless and vulnerable than they really are.

Many claim to be without papers, but, questioned once in England, give the impression that these papers are kept safe somewhere by the traffickers.

The key to everything therefore lies in the dismantling of criminal organizations.

For the moment, we are far from it.