Following the order of a federal judge, the FBI has finally partially released the affidavit it used to obtain a search warrant for Mar-a-Lago.
The affidavit was 38 pages long, and nearly half of it was withheld because of the confidentiality of civilian witnesses.
The potential accusation against Trump is also inseparable from the issue of classified files that the outside world already knew, and the obstruction of justice issue that Trump has encountered many times before, which is not a big surprise.
This led Trump to once again describe the search as a "witch hunt."
The informant asks him to deal with it
Still, the affidavit provided three important clues to the FBI's search earlier this month.
First, the important background of the search was the contents of 15 boxes of documents that the State Archives Bureau had retrieved from Mar-a-Lago Garden as early as January this year. The affidavit revealed that there were 184 confidential files, including 25 “highest-level documents”. Top Secret, which also includes information on top secret informants.
If such information is leaked, it will cause uncontrollable consequences. For example, in the early 2010s, China reportedly obtained similar information. Within two years, dozens of U.S. intelligence sources in China were swept away, and the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) CIA)'s informants in China were wiped out.
Second, after obtaining the above 15 boxes of documents, the US Archives still requested the Department of Justice to intervene in the investigation. One of the reasons is that Trump's handling of confidential documents was extremely negligent, and a large number of confidential documents and presidential communications, as well as newspapers and magazines. , photos, and notes are mixed together, and some of the confidential documents have not been properly collected, overlapped with different confidential documents, or have not been properly identified.
Opinions such as the editorial page of the "Wall Street Journal" that are more supportive of the Republican view believe that Trump's handling of classified documents is just sloppy, and the FBI does not need to use a search warrant to directly search the former president's residence.
However, Mar-a-Lago is a wealthy club where many idlers come and go, and some people use it as a tool to get close to the Republican dignitaries-a few days ago, the media revealed that there was a Ukrainian who claimed to be a member of the wealthy Rothschild family. A woman of American descent who managed to get close to Trump at Mar-a-Lago last year, even playing golf with Trump and senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
Mar-a-Lago, which is not strictly guarded, cannot guarantee that it will not become a starting point for foreign conspiracies to steal US state secrets.
Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
(AP)
Why is Trump delaying?
Third, the affidavit also stated that the authorities had "substantial reason to believe evidence of obstruction of justice" could be found at Mar-a-Lago, but did not mention the specifics.
But the most immediate speculation may have to do with why Trump has been reluctant to turn over White House documents, classified or not.
According to the case further clarified by the affidavit, the Archives Bureau began to contact Trump as early as last May for the White House documents that Trump took away, and designated dozens of boxes of White House documents at that time.
However, Trump has since delayed, and it was not until January of this year that the Archives Bureau was able to send personnel to Mar-a-Lago to retrieve 15 boxes of documents.
However, the archives personnel immediately discovered that some of the documents they retrieved had been torn up by Trump, and Trump still kept the presidential archives in Mar-a-Lago and had not sent them to the Archives.
After the Archives made a public statement about this to no avail, they asked the Department of Justice to intervene.
In the following months, the Department of Justice first investigated the nature of the documents, then issued a subpoena to Trump through a grand jury to find confidential documents, and then sent personnel to visit Mar-a-Lago, and then issued a subpoena for the CCTV footage of Mar-a-Lago. It has been unable to get the cooperation of Trump, and finally entered Mar-a-Lago to search and take away 11 sets of documents after getting a search warrant issued by the judge on August 8.
Trump's golf course in New York.
Trump was reportedly in New York when the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago.
(AP)
From the perspective of law enforcement officers, confidential documents related to national security are stored in a place that is easily infiltrated by people with intentions, and the holders of the documents not only seem to be not serious about preventing the leakage of secrets, but also for up to a year. Nei made several excuses and did not return all the documents. I don't know if he had other plans. It seemed to be understandable to take such a tough action as a house search.
The only place that raises doubts is probably only because the person involved is a former president and a potential candidate for Biden who may run for president again in the future.
Although Trump used words such as "encirclement" and "invasion" to describe the FBI's search, in fact, the search process was extremely peaceful and low-key. Trump himself was not at Mar-a-Lago, the former president of Mar-a-Lago. Security guards were also given advance notice, and the only use of force was presumably when Trump's folder was opened.
Acting according to law, political suppression and political calculation
With this semi-public affidavit in the background, it's really hard to say that the Department of Justice's actions are not acting according to the law.
Of course, acting in accordance with the law can also be political suppression at the same time, but can a search of Mar-a-Lago, or even accusing Trump of the crimes in the case, count as political suppression?
Political suppression can be roughly divided into two categories.
The first type is reputational suppression, which discredits the opponent in the hearts of voters, and has no hope of competing for power in the democratic voting system.
The second category is the suppression of rights, which makes the other party subject to legal restrictions, so that they no longer have the right to participate in politics legally.
Political repression in the traditional sense has nothing to do with Trump.
(AP)
From his campaign in 2016, his incumbency to his resignation, Trump has always portrayed himself as an outsider to the Washington political elite. "Being suppressed by the elite" has always been his source of political support, from smears, criticism, and even law enforcement actions by the political elite. , is political capital for Trump, not political suppression.
Therefore, the FBI search can be regarded as a political favor for Trump, which is good for his "reputation" and not harmful.
On the other hand, since the U.S. Constitution has already clearly stipulated the qualifications of the president and is not affected by other general legislation, even if Trump is charged, convicted, or imprisoned, his right to run for president cannot be revoked. It's impossible to talk about.
Of course, acting in accordance with the law may not only be political suppression, but also a part of political calculations.
The Democrats won in 2020 not because more Americans supported the Democrats, but because more Americans hated Trump more.
Looking ahead, many people believe that Trump is the only candidate who can lose to the Democratic Party.
What has been described as a "political crackdown" on Trump would cement Trump's position within the Republican Party.
This, in turn, is a favorable situation for the Democrats.
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