On January 20, 2021, Joe Biden was sworn in, becoming the third person to handle the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan after Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Problem of the US President.
(This article is the third in a series of articles)
During Obama's tenure, in the face of the resurgent Taliban and the Afghan government with a bad reputation, he tried to balance the differences between the withdrawal faction and the military, hoping to use a compromise solution to buffer the lethality of the Afghan predicament. Therefore, he did not agree with the military at first. The request for an increase of 30,000 troops did not fully listen to Biden's proposal to withdraw troops, but instead hoped to maintain the United States' anti-terrorism cause in Afghanistan with "nation-building" and an appropriate amount of troops.
However, after the military put pressure on public opinion, Obama could only agree to increase the troops, but he also listened to Biden's suggestion and announced on November 23, 2009 an increase of 33,000 troops. Gradually withdraw from Afghanistan.
After Trump took office, the situation in Afghanistan is worse than that of Obama. The US military has gradually withdrawn from Afghanistan, and the Taliban's offensive has become more and more fierce.
In the face of a small increase in troops from the military, Trump fell into the struggle between the establishment and the anti-establishment faction, and after the defeat of the anti-establishment faction represented by Steve Bannon, on August 18, 2017 An additional 4,000 troops were announced.
However, because the security situation in Afghanistan still did not improve, and in order to seek re-election, Trump must fulfill his campaign promise of "supporting the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan", so he finally bypassed the Afghan government and started negotiations with the Taliban. Signed on February 29, Trump said the withdrawal would be completed by May 1, 2021, if "the Taliban fulfilled their commitments."
However, after Trump's re-election defeat, this hot potato was passed on to Biden.
On July 29, 2022, members of the Afghan Taliban stationed in Kabul where an explosion occurred.
(AP)
Biden's position with the team
When Biden came to power, there were still about 3,500 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan, while the Taliban already controlled nearly 20% of Afghanistan, and the Afghan government actually controlled only 30% to 50% of the Afghan territory.
On February 3, 2021, the Biden administration began to hold meetings on Afghanistan affairs one after another.
As of April 14, 2021, before the decision was announced, the U.S. government had held 25 National Security Council meetings and sent officials on-site visits to assess and communicate, such as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (also translated as Austin) for March 2021. On March 21, he visited Afghanistan, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken also went to Brussels on March 23 to communicate with NATO allies.
In the end, Biden announced on April 14 that he would start a full withdrawal on May 1, and the overall process would end by September 11.
Unlike previous presidents, Biden has extensive international experience and has been working on Afghan affairs for a long time.
During his tenure as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden visited Afghanistan many times and witnessed the corruption of the Afghan government with his own eyes, and thus strengthened his political position that "the US military is not worth the sacrifice".
In addition, Biden experienced the political turmoil of the U.S. withdrawal of troops from Vietnam in his early years, and he knows the truth of withdrawal and stop loss.
Therefore, under the interaction of the two contexts, Biden particularly insisted on withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. "Previous presidents wanted to withdraw troops, but the simplest decision was to maintain a certain amount of military strength in Afghanistan. I don't want to be a president who makes simple decisions."
On July 29, 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken attended a meeting at the State Department.
(AP)
In terms of the composition of the decision-making team, most of the members selected by Biden are willing to coordinate with the president and will discuss with the president's will.
For example, Secretary of State Blinken of the diplomatic system, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain, National Security Advisor Jacob Sullivan (also translated as Sullivan), etc., are all Biden's previous long-term advisers and assistants. Denton's tough stance on withdrawing from Afghanistan.
In addition, the attitude of the military is also different from that of Obama and Trump. Not only did the Secretary of Defense Austin, who was a soldier, not stop him, but also the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley (also translated as Milley), also said at the internal decision-making meeting that he personally experienced When the military forced Obama to increase troops, I learned two things: first, don’t force the president to make decisions, but give the president space to think; second, if you are dissatisfied with the president’s decisions, you should also seek legitimate channels for advice , rather than resorting to the media.
The second point is that on September 21, 2009, The Washington Post published an exclusive interview with Stanley A. McChrystal, the then commander-in-chief of the U.S. coalition forces in Afghanistan, leaking the Obama administration. Negative attitude towards the increase of troops, and expressed that "if you don't increase troops, you will be defeated", intending to force Obama to compromise with public opinion.
To sum up, Biden's Afghanistan decision-making team can be described as the combination that is most dominated by the will of the president after Obama and Trump. Even the military, which has always advocated increasing troops, no longer adheres to its existing position.
However, although this structure has minimized internal conflicts to the greatest extent, it has also buried new hidden concerns: Biden's overestimation of the Afghan government and the underestimation of the Taliban's counter-offensive, the lack of obvious checks and balances within the decision-making team, plus the rest. We also underestimated the strength of the Taliban, so the U.S. military did not withdraw according to the schedule left by Trump. but still evacuating" magical scene.
Members of the Afghan Taliban mark the first anniversary of the Taliban's occupation of Kabul in front of the U.S. embassy in Kabul on August 15, 2022.
(AP)
Why is the withdrawal time miscalculated?
Looking back, Biden's miscalculation of the Taliban was actually seen as early as in the memo he submitted to Obama in 2009.
At that time, Biden advocated that promoting "nation-building" in Afghanistan was not in the national interest of the United States. The United States' strategic goals in Afghanistan were only anti-terrorism and combating al-Qaeda, and defeating the Taliban was never on the agenda.
"The Taliban was and is still a part of Afghan Pashtun society, and most of its members can be integrated into Afghan society. Even if the United States does not increase its troops, the Taliban will not have the ability to completely overthrow the Afghan government and will not pose a threat to the United States." Biden also predicted that it is highly unlikely that al-Qaeda will return to Afghanistan, and that even if the Taliban gains a political advantage, they will not invite al-Qaeda to return.
From the perspective of actual development, although Biden has a certain understanding of Afghan affairs, he has indeed overestimated the Afghan government supported by the United States, and seriously underestimated the combat effectiveness of the Taliban and its alliance with Al Qaeda.
This judgment was amplified by the optimism of Blinken and others in the diplomatic and intelligence systems in the subsequent decision-making. Although military personnel had made a contrary assessment, they were also relatively optimistic.
First of all, on the side of the diplomatic intelligence system represented by Blinken and Sullivan, they imagined the best situation after the withdrawal of the US military, and believed that the Taliban might reach a "political reconciliation" with the Afghan government, but the Taliban would control more areas, and The actual control of the Afghan government will be reduced.
Therefore, in late March 2021, Blinken also proposed to extend the withdrawal time to promote political reconciliation in Afghanistan.
Austin and Milley, who represent the military, imagined the worst-case scenario, believing that a civil war might break out in Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban might occupy Kabul, the Afghan government would collapse, al-Qaeda would regroup, and the human rights conditions in Afghanistan would plummet. , and as many as 500,000 refugees will flock to other countries.
Although the military's prediction is generally in line with the follow-up development, its assessment of the collapse of the Afghan government is "months or even years", which is obviously inconsistent with the actual trend.
Therefore, even Austin proposed a relatively slow multi-step withdrawal plan at that time.
On the eve of the first year of the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, dozens of women demonstrated outside the Ministry of Education building in the capital Kabul, fighting for the rights of local women such as education and work.
(Getty Images)
To sum up, the Afghan decision-making team under Biden, from the president, diplomacy, intelligence to the military system, was too optimistic about the situation in Afghanistan, which led to a series of surprises in the follow-up.
After the withdrawal began on May 1, 2021, Austin and Milley found that the situation did not seem to be as expected. The Taliban's counter-offensive was quite rapid. Under the consideration of ensuring the safety of the US military and avoiding terrorist attacks, the two suggested Biden to speed up the pace of withdrawal.
On July 8, 2021, Biden announced that the completion time for the withdrawal of troops would be advanced from September 11 to August 31, 2021. At this time, the Taliban had controlled 90 administrative regions of Afghanistan, accounting for about 22.5% of the country; but until August On the 16th, the day after the Taliban entered Kabul, 98.2% of Afghanistan's territory had fallen into the hands of the Taliban, but the United States was still in the process of retreating, and it was not completely completed until August 31st.
From Bush, Obama, Trump to Biden, the four presidents of the United States have all misjudged the war in Afghanistan. Bush hastily started a 20-year military quagmire; Obama and Trump can only face a strong military. Continued ineffective investment in the U.S. military; although Biden finally found a golden lineup and practiced his will to withdraw, he was defeated by the rhythm scheduling.
Although the United States is now free from the dilemma in Afghanistan, it has lost the high spirits of 20 years ago. After years of wastage in the Middle East, the lost national strength is like a life lost in war, and it is difficult to recover in the short term.
[Biden withdraws troops from Afghanistan Q&A]
Why did Biden's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan go more smoothly than under Obama and Trump?
Members of the decision-making team are well aware of the president's firm stance on the withdrawal of troops, and the military no longer adheres to the established stance of increasing troops.
What went wrong with Biden's withdrawal decision?
From Biden himself, to diplomacy, intelligence, and military systems, the Taliban's counterattack has been overestimated.
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