In the United States, it is difficult and difficult for the ruling party to maintain its congressional battle in the mid-term elections, or even make progress.
The most frequently mentioned is that in the 2002 midterm elections, the reason why the Republican Party, led by then-President Bush Jr., was able to reverse this political law and continue to increase in congressional elections, relied on the likes of 9-11. Event-like upheaval.
The implication is that unless there is another 9-11, the ruling party can only hope to reduce losses in the mid-term elections.
Since Biden withdrew his troops from Afghanistan last year, his popularity has plummeted, and various policies on the platform have remained on the platform. The progressives of the Democratic Party, such as the abolition of the police force, have been wantonly amplified by the right wing. The border refugee problem is unsolved, and the epidemic The post-economic rebound has also been hampered by high inflation, and the Fed's tightening policies have also greatly dampened confidence in the U.S. outlook.
This was about a little over a month ago when Democrats were disheartened and prepared for a "double-lost" fate in the Senate and House of Representatives in November's midterm elections.
However, today's situation is very different from more than a month ago.
Biden's comprehensive opinion polls have rebounded sharply from 37.5% in late July, the lowest in his tenure, to 41.9% today, just in time to overwhelm Trump and get rid of the name of the president with the lowest popularity in history.
Seeing the rebound in public opinion, Biden is also a little high-spirited. Even though many Democrats still hate Biden's poor popularity and are unwilling to canvass votes with him, he himself has rarely taken the initiative to declare war on Trump's political forces a few days ago. Claiming that at this moment "if not the beginning of the extreme MAGA (by: Make America Great Again) philosophy, it is its death knell", criticizing Trump's thinking as "half fascism".
The Democratic Party's election is beginning to see the light of day, it is determined by destiny, and it is also artificial.
On Aug. 26, Biden met with local officials on fertility care.
(AP)
Inflation or downside Gasoline prices fall for 10th straight week
First, inflation appears to be easing.
Although the annual consumer price index (CPI) in July was at a high level of 8.5%, it fell by half a percentage point from the previous month; coupled with the Federal Reserve's determination to suppress inflation, people's inflation expectations also fell.
The New York Fed survey showed that one-year consumer inflation expectations fell to 6.2% in July from 6.8% in June, and its two-year and three-year inflation expectations also fell.
Meanwhile, 528,000 new jobs were created in July, and the unemployment rate fell back to a half-century low of 3.5 percent.
On the one hand, there is pressure to push up prices, on the other hand, it may also allow the Fed to suppress inflation without causing too many job losses (but only a reduction in job vacancies), and it also shows that the US economy is still alive. , so it can be regarded as a semi-positive news.
Moreover, in the United States, where the driving culture is prevalent, the price of gasoline, which is most directly seen by people, has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks, from a high of $5.1 a gallon on June 13 to $3.9 on August 22, which is relatively At $3.3 a year ago, it's actually not that much higher.
That might assuage concerns about inflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy, and it’s natural to feel that Biden’s governance isn’t too bad.
In the United States, where driving culture is prevalent, the price of gasoline, most directly seen, has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks.
(AP)
In addition to Biden's unmanageable inflation problem, there are at least three human factors that are pushing up the Democratic race.
'Abortion rights': GOP too much
First, after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the constitutional guarantee of the "abortion right" in June, the aftermath is emerging one after another.
After the announcement of the verdict, there was an obvious one-time receipt of Democratic political donations in various states, showing the public's attention to this issue.
On the other hand, some Republicans hope to "follow up the victory" on the issue of abortion, and promote "fetal personality" legislation in some US states, treating the fertilized embryo as a complete citizen, so abortion will be equivalent to killing.
Legislation based on the same logic is already in effect in Georgia, where unborn fetuses qualify for tax deductions, childcare assistance, and are included in demographic and gerrymandering calculations.
In addition, some conservative politicians hope to use the "national abortion ban" to stimulate the enthusiasm of Republican voters to retake Congress, such as former Vice President Mike Pence.
Most Americans, however, are clearly moderate on the issue of abortion rights.
On August 2, Crimson Kansas held a state constitutional referendum, hoping to expressly state that the state constitution has no protection for women's right to choose an abortion.
In the end, in a state where Trump beat Biden by 15 points, the pro-abortion rights side won by 18 points.
This is the first statewide vote on the issue since the Supreme Court rejected the guarantee of abortion rights.
Americans' opinion on abortion rights: More people than last year say they will only vote for candidates who share their views on abortion rights, and that abortion should be legal in most or all situations than those who disagree out more than doubled.
(Twitter @OpinionToday)
By Aug. 23, in New York State's 19th House district, the issue of abortion appeared to be winning again for Democrats.
This constituency is one of the few swing constituencies that determines who is the key to Congress. It switched to the Democratic Party in 1996, returned to the Republican Party in 2000, returned to the Democratic Party in 2008 due to the Obama effect, and then fell to the Republican Party in response to the Trump trend in 2016. The hand, and in 2020, will be won by the Democratic Party again, which can be said to be a weather vane of the general political trend in the United States.
In this by-election, at a time when Biden's popularity and economic situation are not good, Democratic candidate Pat Ryan (Pat Ryan) defeated his Republican opponent under the banner that the Republicans will take away the freedom of abortion.
This result is widely interpreted as a positive impact of the abortion issue on the Democratic Party.
According to a poll conducted by Fox News in mid-August, in swing states such as Arizona and Wisconsin, the issue of abortion ranked second in importance after inflation.
Just as progressive Democrats' "police repeal" claims are too extreme to lose support, Republicans' pro-abortion leanings are likely to make the same mistake.
Trump's party wins the primary and loses the election?
Second, at a time when the Republican Party is further Trumpizing (80% of the Republican primary candidates endorsed by Trump can beat their opponents in the party), some of Trump's "horse" have outperformed the party. In the primaries, in the formal elections, they fell significantly behind their Democratic opponents because they were too radical or outliers.
For example, in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro currently leads Trump-backed Republican candidate Doug Mastriano, who has publicly opposed the separation of church and state, by more than 7 percentage points; Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman , even with cardiomyopathy and unable to fully commit to the race, leads Trump's TV doctor Mehmet Oz by 9 percentage points.
By contrast, Biden leads Trump by just 1.2% in Pennsylvania in 2020.
This seems to come true: the only Republican who can lose to the Democrats is Trump.
Who is "Dark Brandon"?
Third, I don’t know if it’s an intentional “expectation management” or a chance to seize the opportunity. In the past month, Biden has suddenly changed from “a year in office with no achievements” to a “performance generator”, from anti-terrorism, industrial On issues ranging from policy, climate, drug prices, taxes, cutting government debt to student loan debt, Biden has delivered tangible results to voters.
Dark Brandon in a nutshell. pic.twitter.com/Ws7zAJGicq #SaveOurDemocracy
— TomthunkitsMind (@VippusaO) August 27, 2022
On July 31, Biden issued an order to use a drone to cross the border to Kabul, Afghanistan to assassinate Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of the al-Qaeda organization, proving that the US military is still effective in fighting terrorism after the withdrawal of Afghanistan; Biden signed the $280 billion "CHIPS and Science Act", launched an industrial policy for semiconductor production, and greatly increased domestic high-tech R&D investment; on August 16, Biden signed the "Inflation Reduction Act" (Deflation Reduction Act), implement the largest climate spending of 370 billion in U.S. history, authorize Medicare for the first time to negotiate drug prices with drugmakers, save 222 billion in drug expenses, implement a 15% minimum corporate tax and a 1% share repurchase tax, and finally cut 300 billion federal government debt.
By August 24, Biden had deducted a maximum of $10,000 in student loan liabilities for an annual income of less than $125,000 (that is, 95% of Americans), directly benefiting many middle-class people, and targeting greater opportunities Minorities with student debt.
Although a large number of "socialist" Republicans and progressive Democrats chanted "insufficient", 60% of Americans support student debt forgiveness, which is also a major campaign item for Biden.
Biden suddenly went from incompetent to effective, and the online memes of "Biden eating ice cream and ignoring government" were largely replaced by the red-eyed "Dark Brandon" ("Brandon" is the name for the right-wing "Fxxk Joe Biden"), The right-wing denigrates the words used by Biden as their own, making them part of the slogan supporting Biden, and the image of "Dark Brandon" is extremely malleable, making Biden suddenly become a hot topic on social media , broke into the propaganda field previously occupied by Trump.
Even people in the White House began to share "Dark Brandon" memes.
I've been loving this meme now. I enjoy Dark Brandon. pic.twitter.com/UGED0znzol
— swordofthejedi (@lynnnysamusic) August 26, 2022
Although "Dark Brandon" is just an online joke, the popularity of this kind of propaganda since Biden killed Zawahiri coincides with the rising trend of Biden's popularity, and seems to have a mutually supportive relationship with Biden's popularity.
Of course, Biden's achievements are not limited to the results of this month, but also last year's trillion-dollar infrastructure bill, at least from getting the United States out of Afghanistan, connecting allies to aid Ukraine, and facilitating the first congressional gun barrel legislation in the United States in 30 years, etc. .
Although Biden’s popularity is still not high at the moment, if this political momentum does not diminish, the Democratic Party may indeed resist the Republican offensive in the mid-term elections and retain control of Congress.
Such a prospect has given many Democrats hope at the moment, allowing them to see the light of dawn in the darkness.
Typical image of "Dark Brandon".
(Twitter @HugimmvMunnin)
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