On August 29, Ukraine appeared to officially launch the long-publicized Kherson counteroffensive.
The spokesman for the command of southern Ukraine was the first to announce that Ukrainian forces had "launched offensive operations in several directions, including the Kherson region".
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he would drive the Russian troops to the border, "if they want to survive, it is time for the Russians to flee," hinting at the existence of the offensive.
The Ukrainian side claims that it has broken through the Russian side's first line of defense in many places.
The Russian Ministry of Defense affirmed the Ukrainian offensive, but said it suffered a fiasco, losing 560 people, two military aircraft and more than 20 tanks and armored vehicles.
CNN quoted Ukrainian officials as saying that the Ukrainian army broke through the defense line at three points on the front line and won four strongholds around Kherson.
Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych also said Ukraine was attacking a Russian ferry that supplies the western bank of the Dnieper River, calling it a "mini-attack".
A Russian military blog also said that Ukraine pushed forward 6 kilometers on the Inhulets River, a tributary of the Dnieper, and captured a frontline stronghold.
Russian sources also pointed out that a former congressman who cooperated with Russia was shot dead at Kherson's home, suspected to be the work of an underground organization behind the enemy in Ukraine.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian side also continued the previous attack on the Russian army's rear supply line, ammunition depot and command center with the "HIMARS" multiple rocket launcher.
The bridges across the Dnieper River around Kherson continued to be attacked, and the Russian side continued to build bridges across the river to enhance the supply capacity of Kherson, its only stronghold on the west bank of the river.
The Economist quoted Ukrainian military sources as saying that Haimas had been used for the first time in strategic battlefield situations to attack front-line positions such as infantry positions to gain a greater distance advantage than attacking the Russian rear.
The publication also quoted Ukrainian military intelligence sources as saying that breaking the Russian first line of defense is good news, but penetrating the second line of defense protected by mobile armored forces will be a more difficult test.
If the Ukrainian side can break the second line of defense, it is very likely that the front line will be pushed to the Dnieper River, which will help the Ukrainian army to drive the Russian personnel out of the west bank of the Dnieper River.
The map of the war situation in the Kherson area by the US think tank Institute for War Studies (ISW) on August 29. The green circle shows the location of heavy fighting in the past 24 hours, and the center of the map shows the location of Kherson.
(ISW)
An August 30 intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defence noted that Ukraine had increased its artillery strength on the southern front, but could not confirm its advance.
At the same time, this intelligence update also indicates that Russia has been consolidating its forces on the west bank of the Dnieper since early August, revealing understaffing and supply problems on the front line.
Based on the above news, it is certain that Ukraine has indeed stepped up its offensive against Kherson, but the results of this offensive on the first day are unknown, and its sustainability is also questionable due to potential damage.
According to polls, more than 90% of the Ukrainian people believe that the Ukrainian army will eventually win.
The above-mentioned rhetoric of Zelensky, who called on the Russian army to flee, did not make any clear allegations, but only generalized remarks; Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the president, called on the media not to speculate too much about the progress of the war, saying that "war is not the content. "; Arestovich, another presidential adviser quoted above, also said that the attack was just a "slow move to kill the enemy."
It can be seen that the blueprint of Kherson's counterattack is actually uncertain.
On the one hand, the analysis of military experts from all sides almost unanimously believes that Ukraine does not have the armament, personnel and experience to carry out a large-scale counter-offensive.
The "New York Times" quoted a U.S. Defense Department official on the 29th as saying that Ukraine's counter-offensive claim "shows the Ukrainians' appetite for progress on the battlefield," but the U.S. remains cautious about whether Ukraine's existing military capabilities are sufficient to make significant progress.
(The following is a photo of the Ukrainian army attack posted on Twitter by a person claiming to be a resident of Kherson and should be used for informational purposes only.)
Strikes in Kherson. Just now. #Ukraine #Kherson pic.twitter.com/aKuHDU6s2h
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 30, 2022
On the other hand, if Ukraine's current offensive does not seek to rush to retake Kherson, but only increases the pressure on the Russian army on the west bank of the Dnieper, this kind of "counter-offensive" is actually nothing new. Since the end of June The Ukrainian side has been putting pressure on the Russian army's rear targets and using underground organizations to sabotage the enemy's rear. So far, it has indeed made it difficult for the Russian army to supply the front line of Kherson. "Quantitative" changes, not "quality" changes.
To a certain extent, if the Ukrainian side has self-awareness of its strength, the "counter-offensive" publicized this time is more propaganda than attack, and it can be regarded as a "bluff".
After the war had reached a stalemate, Zelensky did face heavy pressure for a quick counter-offensive.
When the autumn and winter seasons approach, it is difficult for both sides to make significant progress on the battlefield in Ukraine, but this winter is testing whether Europe, which is suppressed by Russian energy, can maintain its resilience to aid Ukraine. This is a big risk.
In addition, if Kherson and other places are under the control of the Russian army for a long time, the latter will have more time to build defense fortifications, and even implement public investment in Russia to establish a completely Russianized governance mechanism. The Russian army, which is widely recruiting soldiers, will be able to increase personnel input.
These changes will make it more difficult for the Ukrainian side to fight for land in the future.
At the same time, Ukraine itself is facing an economic crisis of a vacant state treasury, soaring inflation, and a slump in output, and the people are gradually beginning to get tired of war, such as the Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, which accounted for Ukraine's domestically produced electricity before the war. 20%) threats of power outages also endanger Ukraine's livelihood and economy.
On August 25, Zelensky met with visiting Italian Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio.
After the general election in Italy next month, it is possible that the far right will come to power, which will change its aid policy to Ukraine.
(AP)
Moreover, although Ukraine has received a steady stream of military aid from European and American countries, many analysts believe that because the national defense layout of Western countries has not prepared for a long-term traditional war like the Russian-Ukrainian War, its ammunition production will face difficulties in the long run. On the bottle neck; in contrast, the Russian side's low-standard ammunition was rated as almost "exhausted".
So time is not on Ukraine's side.
At this moment, the bravado of the Ukrainian side's "counterattack on Kherson" is, to a certain extent, a publicity response to the pressure of this rapid counterattack.
The problem is that propaganda doesn't address Ukraine's limitations on a practical level.
When the constraints are tightened, bluffing will turn into an all-out gamble.
The loss of the failed counter-offensive will certainly severely damage the strength of the Ukrainian army and the morale of the people, but the counter-offensive, which is always only talked about, cannot bring about changes on the battlefield.
Taking a gamble on the counterattack Kherson seems to be the inevitable way out for Zelensky.
The two sides have different views, Ukraine counterattacks Kherson, saying that the defense line was broken and 4 villages were captured. Russia: Ukraine suffered heavy losses. US media: British and American officials believe that Russia's military expansion will not affect the momentum of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The situation in Russia and Ukraine | Departure to inspect the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war: Ukraine has to make a difficult decision after all
