DB expert takes a bitter stock of the 9-euro ticket: "I know train drivers who have switched to the car"

Created: 08/31/2022, 06:11

By: Max Mueller

A train ride is fun, a train ride is ... sometimes not for people with claustrophobia.

© Bodo Marks/dpa

A three-month experiment ends: the 9-euro ticket.

Did the train convince people?

She doesn't really want to know, fears expert Böttger in an interview.

Cologne – There are terms that are inextricably linked to a year.

For the year 2022 there will probably be no avoiding the war in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the 9-euro ticket made the headlines for weeks at least in the summer – and as part of the second relief package, it is also an indirect consequence of the war.

Now the era of discounted special tickets is ending, and it's not just politicians who are puzzled: How well did it work?

And what comes after that?

These are questions that Christian Böttger answers

.

He is a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin and has been researching Deutsche Bahn for years.

Professor Böttger, you have had a “Bahncard 100” for a long time.

How did you notice that something had changed in the last three months?

I did not get on crowded trains in some cases.

If you pay little, you might not find it so dramatic.

But the "Bahncard 100" costs a hell of a lot of money (4,144 euros in 2nd class, editor's note) - accordingly, the expectations are higher.

Otherwise it was the same as usual: you can tell that there is a lack of staff, trains are cancelled, the network is overloaded.

I'm used to that.

I also know train drivers who even switched to the car because of the overcrowded trains.

It's supposed to go in exactly the other direction: from road to rail.

According to the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV), 52 million tickets were sold.

Is this a success?

The number is certainly impressive, but it's not enough to measure success.

The results of the VDV survey, which is said to be financed by the federal and state governments, have not yet been made public.

Only individual statements were published.

The VDV represents the transport companies and has financial interests in the discussion about the 9-euro ticket.

I find it unfortunate that such a biased association is carrying out the accompanying research and that the results are not published in full in a timely manner. 

That means you don't think the numbers are right?

I cannot understand some of the figures mentioned, such as the number of trips that are said to have been shifted and the resulting CO₂ effect.

There are so many universities in Germany.

Why didn't anyone collect any data?

Do you know how expensive an empirical study is?

The VDV stated that they surveyed 6,000 households every week for 15 weeks.

That's almost 100,000 interviews, each costing maybe 20 euros.

So we're talking millions.

Universities can't just do that so easily.

9-euro ticket: full trains, annoyed passengers – up to 700 disputes a day

What many agree on: the 9-euro ticket has not substituted car journeys, but rather provided for additional journeys. 

Measuring such effects is not trivial.

In any case, most studies on the €9 ticket have not shown any serious displacement effect.

This applies to the investigation by the Federal Statistical Office, which evaluated movement data with the mobile phone provider Telefonica, the studies by the German Aerospace Center and the Technical University of Munich.

Only the VDV study sees a shift effect of around three percent of car journeys.

It is clear, however, that the majority are additional journeys.

However, a study by the navigation manufacturer Tomtom came to a similar conclusion.

Accordingly, there are fewer traffic jams with the 9-euro ticket.

So a displacement effect after all?

Tomtom has not published its methodology either.

They argue that there was an effect in 14 out of 16 major cities.

Rural areas have been completely excluded.

In addition: The 9-euro ticket comes at a time when many events are being rescheduled after Corona, and the overall volume of travel has increased.

I've already traveled across Germany twice this year because weddings have been rescheduled.

Festivals are taking place again, more people are working from home, and the price of petrol has risen dramatically.

What are you trying to say?

There are endless factors that influence mobility.

That is why I find the quality of the debate so unbearable.

The world is more complex than: "We have sold 52 million 9 euro tickets".

You would also have to look at what areas you are talking about.

In Ingolstadt, Solingen or Krefeld, the municipal transport companies probably don't notice much of the 9-euro ticket.

In these cities, commuter traffic dominates.

On tourist routes, for example on the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the trains have been regularly overcrowded in recent months.

Is frustration inevitable?

I recently read a number in an industry magazine that is stunning: According to this, there were around 700 incidents a day that were reported to the operations centers - overcrowded trains, disputes with passengers, including fisticuffs and similar incidents.

9-euro ticket: What has Wissing done since taking office?

"Nothing"

The discussion about a connection solution has been going on for some time, nothing has been decided yet.

There is a 49-euro ticket or 69-euro ticket (per month) or a 365-euro ticket (per year) in the room.

Are these realistic prices?

It's always about the price.

This is pure speculation.

Introducing a 49-euro ticket would cost maybe five billion euros.

Unfortunately, all the other effects are not discussed.

The entire tariff logic would have to be revised, since it is also about the city and the surrounding area and local and long-distance traffic.

Just one example of the effect of a permanent flat rate in regional transport: With a ticket like this, we make long-distance commuting more attractive and ensure that more people move to the countryside.

Inevitably, more will then be built, which will exacerbate the climate crisis.

I think one should carefully weigh the effects before such far-reaching decisions are made - I currently miss these debates.

Don't you see any attempts at reform?

I do think that there is very limited potential to simplify tariffs across Germany.

But there is resistance to this.

On the one hand, states and municipalities do not want to give up any autonomy, on the other hand there are of course many well-paid jobs with local transport and tariff associations that could be lost. 

Lots of systems, lots of administrative work?

Yes.

Many subscription customers have not even received their refund.

Still, all those traffic experts from each party are always talking about some kind of prices and connecting tickets.

These are usually people who have seldom if ever seen a train from the inside. 

Volker Wissing has announced: No more "tariff jungle".

I'm currently seeing a lot of dashing press statements from politicians.

However, I have the impression that there is not always much expertise behind the statements.

Mr Wissing has been Minister for nine months now, and I am not aware of any serious initiative to simplify the tariff system.   

Would it be necessary?

The ticketing system is not as complicated for the individual passenger as is always claimed.

Take the DB Navigator, it's really a great app.

You can use it to book a ticket from the smallest village to a large city - no matter how many transport associations are used.

Some aspects such as taking dogs and bicycles could be standardized.

But otherwise the effect is not that huge if you adjust the tariffs.

Professor Christian Böttger works at the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin.

© HTW Berlin

9-euro ticket: rail investment backlog of 120 billion euros

You have good contacts with the railways.

What is the balance of the 9-euro ticket there, apart from the public statements?

You can see that the whole operation is at maximum capacity.

It crunches at every corner and end.

I also notice that many employees are resigned.

Deutsche Bahn is constantly being criticized.

How is it actually abroad, does a lot work better there?

In Tallinn there was an attempt to make public transport free of charge.

Even then, it didn't really lead to any major changes in behavior.

The railway is used where the offer is good.

Take Italy: there is a high-speed line (funded with EU money) from Milan to Rome to Naples.

Outside of this route, traveling by train in Italy is not a revelation either. 

Let's put ourselves back in the early morning of March 24, 2022 at around 5 a.m.

The idea of ​​the 9-euro ticket came up during a night session of the coalition committee, which had been going on for eight hours by then.

Imagine if you were there: what would you have said?

I wouldn't have said anything at first, just shook my head.

If we really want to make public transport more attractive, capacities have to be expanded.

The federal government is pushing a list of projects worth more than 100 billion euros that urgently need to be tackled.

Two billion euros are currently available annually for such projects.

For comparison: the 9-euro ticket costs 2.5 billion euros.