Forecasts that blow hot and cold.
In an interview with
Ouest-France
, the Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau discusses the economic context in France.
According to him, growth in the third quarter
“should be slightly positive”.
It therefore maintains the forecast of 2.3% for the whole of 2022 made last June.
“The French always want to consume, companies always want to invest, demand seems to be resisting, but supply problems must be taken seriously.
This is why we must beef up the French and European economy, that is to say strengthen our production capacity, ”
points out François Villeroy de Galhau.
Read alsoThe governor of the Banque de France determined to fight inflation
Because if he keeps a positive growth outlook in 2022, he is not as optimistic for the following year.
“Nothing can be ruled out in the period of great uncertainty that we are experiencing, but we expect France to see a sharp slowdown rather than a recession,”
he says.
Why ?
Because the economic thrust of the exit from the Covid crisis is already far away: in 2023,
“there will not be the same momentum for the French economy which has started to slow down, even if it is resisting rather better than expected.”
French inflation
,
"the lowest in the euro zone"
Regarding inflation, the Governor of the Banque de France welcomes the tariff shield measures
“taken to protect the purchasing power of the French”.
“
Inflation in France at the end of August fell a little, and is the lowest in the euro zone, at 5.8% in the “national” index or 6.5% in the harmonized European index.
The average in the euro zone reached 9.1%
, ”underlines the senior official.
With one objective: to bring this price increase back to 2%
“by 2024”
by
““normalizing” monetary policy, that is to say getting out of exceptionally low interest rates”.
Read alsoThe Banque de France deciphers the economic facts
As for real estate credit, the Governor of the Banque de France indicates that
“growth over one year is 6.4%”.
“
The rates are rising very gradually but they are on average at 1.45% in July (...).
This therefore remains very favorable rates
, ”he adds.
It is also an opportunity to come back to the criticisms made of the usury rate – the credit ceiling rate – which can block part of the real estate market.
The Banque de France sets the maximum rate at which banks are allowed to lend each quarter.
The ceiling is now set at 2.40% over 20 years.
Which is too low for many buyers.
Many of them are denied access to credit.
“The lenders who are demanding an additional increase in the usury rate are those who want to be able to lend more to the French,”
mocks François Villeroy de Galhau.
According to him, when lending rates
“rise gradually, the ceiling rate itself rises gradually as it was at the end of June, and again at the end of September.
“
It is not up to the Banque de France to change the law,”
he announced.
See you in a few weeks to find out if the wear rate will be revised or not.