The headlines over the weekend heralded two seemingly major dramas: the first, a deep crisis in the nuclear talks with Iran, which may cast doubt on the possibility of signing the renewed agreement; The second, the change in Israel's policy in Syria, which led to Russia acting against Iranian activity in the country.
As always, the headlines were more dramatic than the reality.
It's not that nothing has happened, but nothing has been decided yet - not in the nuclear arena, nor in the issue of efforts to establish and arm Iran's proxies in Syria and Lebanon.
In both cases it is a battle of digs, in which the sides accumulate points and constantly change tactics, in an attempt to gain an advantage for the next round.
The talks on the nuclear deal (archive), photo: Reuters
In the nuclear issue, the main debate now revolves around the "open files".
These are three cases that were revealed as part of the nuclear archive brought to Israel by the Mossad in 2018, and from which it appears that Iran has carried out actions that are contrary to its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
These actions were carried out before the signing of the original nuclear agreement in 2015, and the International Atomic Energy Agency demanded - and has not yet received - explanations from Iran about exactly what was done with them and for what purposes.
The agreement will focus exclusively on the issue of uranium enrichment, photo: E.
Nose.
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For them to see and be seen
Iran is now demanding that the files be closed as part of the signing of the renewed agreement.
The Americans refuse, and rightly so, not only because Iran will get away with the violations it has committed, but because this will signal to every other country in the world that similar violations can be committed with impunity.
In an attempt to pressure the West, Iran rejected proposals that the issue be concluded after the signing of the renewed agreement, but it is not at all certain that Tehran will not turn around again and agree to the proposal.
The head of the Mossad, Dedi Barnea, who will visit Washington this week, will try to convince his American colleagues to toughen their positions towards Iran.
It is doubtful whether he will succeed, but it is enough if Washington does not back down on the "open files" issue for the visit to be crowned a success.
In such a case, Israel and the United States will have to decide how to behave if no agreement is signed, and especially if Iran continues to move (slowly, but steadily) towards the bomb.
Iran may suffer severe sanctions even after signing the agreement, photo: Reuters
Barnea will also deal with his hosts on the issue of terrorism and Iranian arms smuggling, mainly to Syria and Lebanon.
It is likely that he will warn that the arena is more explosive than ever and may deteriorate into escalation.
The two recent attacks attributed to the Air Force on Aleppo and Damascus airports were indeed intended to disrupt the landing of cargo planes carrying weapons, but they also put pressure on Syria and Russia.
The first is indeed interested in Iran curbing its activities in its territory, but is too weak to enforce this, and the second only acts when its interests are in danger, and following the attacks it demanded that the Iranians withdraw their forces slightly from several positions in order to distance them from the Russian forces.
A meeting between the American delegation and the Iranian delegation as part of the negotiations for the nuclear agreement (archive), photo: AP.
Iranian determination
This military pressure in Syria is expected to continue in the coming period as well, although the Israeli determination to prevent smuggling is met with a corresponding Iranian determination to continue it in any possible way.
In the meantime, deterrence in the northern arena is maintained, and if anything threatens to undermine it, it is precisely the debate over the economic water issue between Israel and Lebanon.
In this context, the coming weeks may bring significant news, if the agreement between the parties is indeed signed;
Its meaning will not only be an official agreement between Israel and Lebanon, with all that implies, but also a significant economic horizon for Lebanon that will be a significant brake and curb against future escalation in the north.
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