As the new crown epidemic heats up, the direction of Hong Kong's epidemic prevention policy has once again become the focus. Among them, whether Hong Kong will lift the hotel quarantine restrictions in November is the most concerned.
"Bloomberg" reported earlier that the government is inclined to cancel the hotel quarantine policy in November this year, and said that Chief Executive Li Jiachao is inclined to relax, but the director of the Medical and Health Bureau, Lu Chongmao, disagreed. There are differences.
Regardless of who is right and who is wrong, one thing is certain, the SAR government is facing an important fork in the epidemic prevention policy.
Some politicians admitted frankly that even if the current epidemic rebounds, it is imperative to maintain Hong Kong's long-term competitiveness and relax the quarantine policy to "0+7" or even looser.
At present, the positive and negative reasons are quite clear. Li Jiachao needs to make a political decision to establish and clarify the direction of the epidemic prevention policy to the whole society. Whether and under what conditions will it be possible to return to normal. This is the first step after the new government takes office. a political hurdle to overcome.
▼On September 4, the police announced that they will strictly enforce the epidemic prevention laws for 7 consecutive days▼
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Competitors are loosening epidemic prevention, Hong Kong lags behind
Since the fifth wave of the epidemic, Hong Kong's external connections have been interrupted for a time, and the strict foreign import policy has also caused dissatisfaction with foreign countries. The US government's current travel warning for Hong Kong is Level 3 "reconsider travel", and the content refers to Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s quarantine policy and social distancing measures may lead to parents being forced to separate from their children once the diagnosis is confirmed, which will greatly affect the business and investment environment in Hong Kong, especially when major competitors have relaxed domestic and external epidemic prevention restrictions in recent months. Hong Kong still requires people entering the country to undergo "3+4" quarantine, which is relatively backward; it is undoubtedly a move of "rushing out" for senior executives of foreign banks, overseas athletes, etc.
A senior establishment faction who did not want to be named reminded that whether it is President Xi Jinping's important speech on July 1st, or Vice Premier Han Zheng's recent exposition of Hong Kong's role in the "Belt and Road", they all emphasize Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and its role in "One Country, Two Systems". unique advantage.
The person pointed out that, in fact, if the speech of the central leaders was changed in another direction, the question would be "without international connections, what is left of Hong Kong".
This is not something that can be solved with just a few politically correct slogans, but a long-term consideration for Hong Kong's role in the country's development.
Leaders attach importance to Hong Kong's international status
As the epidemic in Hong Kong began to slow down in April, the government also knew that being isolated from overseas for a long time would be tantamount to handing over its status as an international financial center, and successively cancelled the flight ban and the flight "circuit breaker" in certain countries and regions.
Before the current government took office, Lu Chongmao also stated early in June that he would strive to shorten the quarantine period for passengers to 5 days or less, which can be combined with home isolation.
Both he and Li Jiachao have successively stated that everything depends on the data and makes scientific decisions, but everyone with a discerning eye knows that the general direction of the entire policy is from tight to wide.
Following the expectations of all parties, the government announced the "3+4" quarantine arrangement in mid-August, that is, 3 days of hotel quarantine and 4 days of medical monitoring, in conjunction with the implementation of the "red and yellow code" system.
Although entry and quarantine restrictions still exist, which may not be very attractive to foreign bank executives, they are generally regarded by the political circles as a pilot for further relaxation, and they are looking forward to the next step of "0+7".
Chief Executive Li Jiachao.
(file picture)
Anti-epidemic end?
Li Jiachao emphasizes the protection of old and young, medical care
However, the rebound of the local epidemic continued. By the end of August, the daily increase of 10,000 cases was approaching the mark, and the government had to reconsider the policy direction.
"Bloomberg" reported last Thursday, the main content is that Li Jiachao tends to support the lifting of hotel quarantine before the November event, to show that Hong Kong has returned to normal operation, in time for the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit organized by the HKMA Hotel quarantine arrangements are lifted before the Hong Kong Sevens.
The Chief Executive's Office immediately issued a statement that evening, reiterating the five-point principle of the government's anti-epidemic policy, including: (1) Do not lie flat, continue to control the number of confirmed cases, better manage risks and improve resilience, and prevent the medical system from overloading its capacity; (2) reduce (3) Protecting high-risk individuals, including “one old and one young” and chronically ill patients; (4) Identifying people with different risk levels in a scientific and accurate way to reduce the number and scope of control, allowing the most daily activities and the number of people involved; (5) balancing risks and economic dynamics, and maintaining livelihood activities and Hong Kong’s competitiveness while risks are controllable.
The subtext of the government's statement is that it will continue to try to strike a balance between epidemic prevention and normalcy/restoration of external contacts.
On the same day, Li Jiachao held a press conference to explain the progress of reverse isolation. When asked what the final outcome of Hong Kong's anti-epidemic policy was, he said that the basis of the overall anti-epidemic policy is to protect high-risk individuals, and the public medical system can maintain the premise of coping with the epidemic and providing general services. Only then can the society have the greatest space to relax social distance and connect with international standards.
Lu Chongmao, director of the Medical and Health Bureau.
(file picture)
Such an article reminds me of the drama "Strategy of Yanxi Palace", which was a hit in the mainland a few years ago and described infighting in the palace. It doesn't matter whether there is a real person in history or not. Anyway, it is a TV drama script. Or to achieve the purpose of the screenwriter is successful.
Director of the Medical and Health Bureau Lu Chongmao's blog on September 4
The official denies internal differences, the concept of epidemic prevention is essentially facing a dilemma
Until the day before yesterday (September 4), Lu Chongmao sternly clarified on his blog: "The accountability team led by the Chief Executive has always had the same goal of the overall anti-epidemic policy. We will continue to adjust individual measures according to the development of the epidemic. In order to achieve precise anti-epidemic." Without naming names, he criticized "Bloomberg" for creating incidents.
On the same day, Executive Council member and former Food and Health Secretary Ko Wing-man also joined the discussion on the epidemic prevention policy. He believed that it was too early to say that the new crown virus was "flu-like", and he did not support the early lifting of epidemic prevention measures. .
Some people in the establishment reminded the author that although Lu Chongmao’s blog published the day before yesterday strongly denied his disagreement with Li Jiachao, he did not deny the current dilemma facing the government—that is, under the rebound of the epidemic, how to continue to loosen the conditions Quarantine policy; Gao Yongwen's remarks further highlight that the two ideas have not yet been reconciled.
Some members of the guild pointed out that Li Jiachao's general direction of anti-epidemic is towards loosening restrictions, but he must follow the steps. At present, there are 10,000 cases diagnosed every day. It is very cautious, and external customs clearance must take into account factors such as the medical system and the impact on the mainland.
Tian Beichen: "0+7" foreign businessmen may not accept
Tian Beichen, a member of the Legislative Council of the Real Politics Roundtable, pointed out that the current government's focus is to try to avoid the occurrence of severe and fatal cases, as well as the burden on the medical system, while the competitiveness of Hong Kong has been damaged due to the quarantine policy, which "has already helped Singapore to hold back and rush to the sun. There are so many talents”, so the government very much hopes to open up the quarantine policy.
According to his understanding, some foreign businessmen and senior executives of foreign banks are not satisfied with the "0+7" arrangement. They believe that they should be in line with other neighboring regions in Southeast Asia, especially Singapore, and do not need to undergo quarantine and free movement. Therefore, in principle, they hope that the government will change the quarantine arrangement into a new arrangement as soon as possible. "0+7", and then wait and see the results for a period of time, and then make appropriate optimizations, such as allowing free movement under regular nucleic acid testing.
However, he admitted that the current epidemic situation is heating up. If the quarantine arrangement is rashly relaxed, even if the actual impact on the epidemic situation is limited, it will inevitably be questioned as "flattening" in terms of political perception. Therefore, how to strike a proper balance between the relaxation of quarantine and the local epidemic situation is the future of the government. It is also the first political problem that the current government has faced since taking office.
He added that the leaders of the central government have repeatedly stated that they attach importance to Hong Kong's international status. In fact, to a certain extent, the relaxation of quarantine in Hong Kong has "gone the green light."
Executive Council member and vice-chairman of the Pakatan Harapan, Lam Kin Fung, pointed out that from the perspective of the business community, it is of course hoped that the number of quarantine days will be as short as possible, especially since October is the peak period for exhibition activities, and there will also be many international-oriented events and conferences in November. However, Hong Kong itself always needs to do its own epidemic control work, such as protecting the elderly and the young, and speeding up vaccinations to prevent severe illness and death. I believe the government will continue to adjust policies according to the actual situation.
Another member of the Executive Council, Tong Jiahua, said that Hong Kong's competitiveness is indeed at a disadvantage compared with neighboring regions, and that restoring economic freedom as soon as possible should be one of the government's priorities. This is quite a challenging issue.
Chen Kaixin: Insufficient vaccination of young and old, the government has scruples about relaxation
Chen Kaixin, a member of the Legislative Council who was a former political assistant to the Food and Health Bureau, said that at present, I believe that everyone in Hong Kong, including government officials and members of the Executive Council, understands the importance of returning to business and maintaining Hong Kong's competitiveness, but the other end of the scale is Hong Kong's public medical care. There is a chance that the system will collapse again, the medical care will be overwhelmed, the elderly and the young will die, and the disaster situation of March will be repeated. The government cannot allow this to happen.
Among them, the immediate effective reproduction rate of the virus is still higher than 1, and 3,444 new cases were reported by schools yesterday. These figures must have attracted the attention of the government. Therefore, it does not necessarily meet the current context to talk about further relaxation of quarantine.
She agrees that even if the epidemic prevention policy is tightened, it can only be aimed at citizens who have not received all injections. It is difficult to ask "good" citizens to accompany them to "suffer". The high-risk group of "one old and one young" is precisely the The group with the least ideal injection rate, so I hope the government will make further efforts to increase the vaccination rate to ensure that the road to normalcy is not hindered.
As for the need to implement more compulsory injection measures, it is up to the government to make a decision after weighing the political risks.
It is rumored that the quarantine hotel policy will be cancelled in November. The Chief Executive Office: Do not lie flat, continue to accurately control Lu Chongmao, who denounces "Bloomberg" as untruthful, and uses "Story of Yanxi Palace" as an analogy: to achieve the goal of screenwriting, it will be successful. "Bloomberg" quoted news: Chief Executive Li Jiachao is inclined Support the lifting of hotel quarantine policies by November
