Development like in North Korea?

Ex-Kremlin adviser explains what's in store for Russia after Vladimir Putin

Created: 06/09/2022 10:26 am

By: Patrick Freiwah

An expert analyzes what could happen in Russia if Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin resigns.

© Alexey Maishev / dpa

How much does Russia's political system depend on Vladimir Putin?

What happens after departure?

A Kremlin expert has a striking thesis ready.

Moscow/Washington - It is clear that Vladimir Putin will eventually lose his position as head of the Kremlin.

The big question, especially in the Ukraine conflict, is "when".

Also.

when there may be wishful thinking behind reports that Putin is ill and has not much longer to live.

Nevertheless, secret services and political experts are diligently sketching out scenarios for an imminent regime change in Russia.

A long-time Kremlin insider even spoke to Sergei Gurijew about the time after Putin.

Russia without Vladimir Putin?

Ex-Kremlin adviser sees country on the brink of collapse

The 50-year-old told the US TV channel CNBC what he thinks the political system in Russia will look like when the current ruler is no longer in office.

Guriyev sees hard times ahead for the country: “He built the regime in such a way that the system would not work without him.

The people around him don't trust each other, sometimes they even hate each other," explains the interviewee, referring to Putin, whose famous predecessor Mikhail Gorbachev died.

In the American report, the economist Gurijew even predicts a collapse of the system if Putin disappears from the Kremlin.

However, it is unlikely that Russia's strategy in the Ukraine war will be supported solely by President Vladimir Putin: Duma deputies have called on the head of state to eliminate Volodymyr Zelenskyj.

Nonetheless, Guriyev acknowledged that it is enormously difficult to predict what the future of Russia will be like after the end of Vladimir Putin: "Regimes like this change in very unpredictable ways." Who will take power in Russia when the current leader takes office loses?

"Probably an ultra-nationalist or possibly a military junta will take over," Guriyev said on US TV.

However, according to him, a collapse is inevitable.

Russia of the future: Expert predicts horror scenario from President Putin

Political expert Gurijew then brought up a horror scenario for Putin and his vision of a reinvigorated Russian empire: On the one hand, he considers a development conceivable in which Russia becomes a “North Korea on steroids”.

"But a situation could also arise in which the system collapses and someone who wants to rebuild the economy turns to the West," is his thesis.

Vladimir Putin: The political career of the Russian head of state in pictures

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However, the West should probably not take this prediction for granted: After the start of Western sanctions against Moscow, Guriyev declared that the oil embargo would hit the Russian economy massively.

Only a short time later, Russia became the most important exporter of the raw material for the People's Republic of China and in this way cushioned some of the consequences.

In addition, the state-owned energy company Gazprom earned more money in the first half of 2022 than ever before in the company's history.

Money that also promises flourishing revenues for the Russian treasury.