Lambsdorff: "I'm nervous about European cohesion if Ms. Meloni governs Italy"

Created: 06/09/2022, 16:54

By: Anna-Katharina Ahnefeld

Italy votes on September 25th – in all probability on the right.

FDP foreign politician Graf Lambsdorff on political will-o'-the-wisps and the possible consequences of the election.

Berlin/Rome – Italy is about to shift to the right.

On September 25, after the resignation of the non-party head of government Mario Draghi, new elections will be held in the EU's third largest economy.

The right-wing alliance of the post-fascist party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia), Matteo Salvini's right-wing Northern League and Forza Italia, which is tailored to Silvio Berlusconi, has a good chance of winning the election.

The most promising candidate for the post of prime minister is the ultra-right politician Giorgia Meloni, whose brothers Italy is at the top in recent polls.

IPPEN.MEDIA 's

spoke to

FDP foreign policy expert and deputy parliamentary group leader Alexander Graf Lambsdorff

about the effects of an election victory by Giorgia Meloni on the EU, the potential course of a right-wing alliance in Ukraine - and about a possible end to the Russian invasion war in Of Ukraine.

FDP politician Alexander Graf Lambsdorff is concerned about European cohesion if Giorgia Meloni wins the elections.

© FDP

Italy election: FDP foreign politician Graf Lambsdorff on Giorgia Meloni, effects on the EU and Berlusconi

On September 25th there will be new elections in Italy.

Right-wing parties are on the rise.

How deep is Italy's democracy in crisis and what are the reasons for this?

As is known from Italy, the new election is coming after a very short time.

But this is not a systemic crisis in Italian democracy.

In Italy, changes of government are practically the order of the day.

During the 16 years of Angela Merkel, the Italians had nine prime ministers.

What is remarkable, however, is that a party that is very right-wing national is leading the polls.

Fratelli d'Italia with Giorgia Meloni as Chair.

Exactly.

If she actually wins the elections, and the polls are currently pointing in that direction, that could cause us some problems in Europe and in foreign policy in the future.

Nevertheless, unlike in Germany, Italy has managed to massively downsize the two chambers of parliament.

This suggests that democracy works in Italy.

An expected shift to the right does not necessarily speak for a functioning democracy.

Why is Giorgia Meloni so successful?

Since the demise of the Christian Democratic Party, the conservative party landscape in Italy has undergone massive changes.

Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia was the dominant force for a long time, then the Lega Nord came along, but Matteo Salvini was also disenchanted during his reign.

Now it's the turn of the Fratelli d'Italia, Italy's brothers, in the conservative camp.

I regret that. It would be better if you had a moderately conservative, Christian Democratic party.

The Fratelli are definitely not.

But since the right-of-centre force that dominated Italy for decades has simply disappeared, the party landscape in this part of the political spectrum is very much in flux.

How would you classify Silvio Berlusconi's renewed ambitions in this context? 

Silvio Berlusconi finds it difficult to remain diplomatic.

As prime minister, he wasn't exactly a shining example of great statesmanship.

His personal behavior severely damaged Italian politics internationally, but also the political class in Italy itself.

If the people vote for him, that's their right.

But I believe that someone like Berlusconi, who is well over 80, is not the future of the Italian Republic.

Rather, the future could belong to the right-wing politician Meloni.

Would her election victory have the potential to plunge the EU into chaos?

Italy is a founding member of the European Union and the third largest economy.

The EU treaties are not called the Treaties of Rome by accident: they were signed in Rome.

A government in Italy that would oppose cooperation with the European Union therefore obviously has the potential to harm the EU.

In the past, Ms. Meloni's party has enjoyed working with right-wing nationalist parties such as Jarosław Kaczyński's in Poland or Viktor Orbán's in Hungary.

I am nervous about European cohesion should Mrs Meloni govern.

Cuddling up to Viktor Orbán, EU-sceptical tones and a strong sense of nationalism: would Italy, under Giorgia Meloni, be in danger of going it alone in foreign policy?

You can't completely rule it out.

The conservative parties in Italy have traditionally been very understanding of Russian politics.

But I believe that Russia's attack on Ukraine has brought some people to their senses in Rome too.

Italy has been a member of NATO for many decades – one of NATO's largest commands is based in Naples.

It is my strong hope, therefore, that Italy, whoever governs, will support our Western alliance policies that we have been crafting over the past few months in response to this terrible war.

Giorgia Meloni's potential allies, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, have always been close to Putin, and Mr. Salvini has even questioned the sanctions against Russia.

Ms. Meloni, on the other hand, is committed to NATO and arms deliveries to Ukraine.

So there seems to be potential for conflict.

Which Ukraine course can be expected under this legal alliance?

This shows how complicated things are.

Ms. Meloni's party wants to work with both Mr. Kaczyński's anti-Russian Poland and Mr. Orbán's pro-Russian Hungary.

It must be possible to keep Italy as a reliable partner in the western alliance - with all the consequences that follow from this.

Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi are both political will-o'-the-wisps.

If there is a legal alliance and Ms. Meloni becomes prime minister, one can only hope that she will prevail against these two coalition partners.

So is Ms. Meloni the lesser evil in this trio?

Among the blind, the one-eyed is queen, as you can see.

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Russia-Ukraine war: FDP politician Graf Lambsdorff on the possible end of the war

Let's take a look at what is currently Europe's biggest trouble spot: the Russia-Ukraine war has been raging for over six months.

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) is already assuming that the war will last for years – do you also expect that?

Yes.

We are witnessing a traditional land war in which the attacker did not achieve his war goal quickly and is now proceeding in a completely different way.

I see it the same way as the foreign minister: There are many indications that Vladimir Putin will continue to pursue his goal, namely the dismantling of the Ukrainian state and the destruction of Ukrainian identity, for several years to come.

At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's war aims have grown, and the Ukrainian president is now aiming to recapture Crimea as well.

Where does this change come from?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy makes a completely self-evident point: his war aim is to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity.

This is militarily difficult and I cannot assess how realistic that is.

I'm rather skeptical.

But of course it must be the political goal of a president to regain control of the entire territory of his country.

In doing so, he is making it clear to all those hesitant voices in the West that negotiations with Russia are not possible under the current conditions.

After all, we see the crimes being committed on Ukrainian territory, against Ukrainian civilians, against Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Finally, let us outline a possible scenario for an end to the war.

How can negotiations be reached and who is a suitable mediator?

There will be no bilateral negotiations, that much is clear.

The continued support of Ukraine, including with heavy weapons, is a prerequisite for negotiations that do not result in a dictated peace in which Russia simply dictates what has to be done.

I would consider the United Nations as a mediator, such as the Secretary-General or a top diplomat commissioned by him.

What about Germany or Turkey?

Turkish President Recep Erdogan took a very active part in the negotiations.

However, countries such as Norway and Finland, which have often organized behind-the-scenes negotiations in the past, are also traditionally successful in such missions.

But when the time comes and to what extent negotiations will take place, Ukraine must decide.

That is why she must be able to make these decisions confidently.

This requires further help from Germany and other western countries.