Just as Ukraine is slowly counterattacking the Russian army on the front line of Kherson in the south, Prague, the Czech capital, ushered in 70,000 far-right and far-left pro-Russian demonstrations on September 3, demanding that the Czech authorities take "Czech first". ” strategy, stop arming Ukraine, and renegotiate a gas supply agreement with Russia. Anti-NATO and anti-EU slogans were widely seen in the demonstrations.
The demonstration, although not yet threatening the current Czech government, is the prelude to this week's theme of the European energy crisis.
Last week, the European Commission announced that it would introduce short- and long-term policies to deal with the energy crisis, causing European natural gas futures prices to plummet and focusing on the September 9 EU energy ministers meeting.
countries do their best
Just as countries were discussing various plans behind their backs, the G7 countries announced on September 2 to set a price ceiling on Russian oil, using Western countries' access rights to the shipping, insurance, and barter industries as a tool to set limits.
On the same day, Gazprom, which was originally scheduled to end the three-day maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline, continued to stop the Nord Stream 1 gas transmission on the grounds that Western sanctions affected the maintenance. respond.
By September 5, the Kremlin had made it clear that Nord Stream 1 would not resume supply unless sanctions were lifted in the West; European gas prices, which had once fallen, were again seeing some gains.
In the face of the energy crisis this winter, many European countries have taken the lead in the European Union and introduced countermeasures on their own.
On September 2, the day before the aforementioned pro-Russian demonstrations in Prague, Czech authorities had introduced energy subsidies worth 7.2 billion euros (equivalent to 3 percent of economic output).
On September 4, Germany launched the third round of energy relief, with a total value of 65 billion euros, equivalent to more than double the sum of the previous two rounds, including corporate tax exemptions, one-time payment, and restrictions on basic electricity prices for households and small businesses. policy; on the same day, Finland and Sweden also introduced liquidity guarantees worth more than $30 billion to power producers.
Anti-government demonstrations on the streets of Prague on September 3.
(AP)
Previously, Spain and Portugal have used state-subsidized fuel costs for power plants to drive down electricity prices.
France, on the other hand, nationalized EDF, capped electricity price increases to 4%, continued to freeze natural gas prices at last October's levels, and added subsidies to gasoline prices.
Italy has allocated more than 52 billion euros this year to deal with the cost of living crisis.
Many other countries have also introduced different measures to deal with the energy crisis, such as price caps, tax cuts, one-time distribution of money, and energy conservation.
Copy the epidemic solidarity?
Just as the Covid-19 crisis has highlighted the need for alliance-wide engagement, the EU sees the need for collective action and is planning an alliance-wide response.
According to the Czech proposal document of the rotating presidency obtained by the political news website POLITICO, its response to the proposal can be divided into four major projects.
One is
to separate the price of electricity from the price of natural gas
.
As the wholesale electricity market pricing in the EU is ultimately determined by the price of natural gas to generate electricity, regardless of the cost of generating electricity for individual generators, the price of natural gas today, which is 10 times higher than the same period last year, has seriously affected electricity prices.
There are several related proposals. One is to set a maximum price for Russian natural gas, which is similar to the G7's recent action against Russian oil; the other is to set a maximum price for non-natural gas power plants that are making huge profits, or dump huge profits. Taxes to drive down or subsidize electricity prices.
The second is
to provide liquidity guarantees to power generators
, as in Sweden and Finland .
Because power plants usually hold short positions of natural gas in the futures market to hedge the risk of natural gas price fluctuations, if the gas price falls, the loss can be offset by the short position, and if the gas price rises, it can be offset by the profit from selling electricity The loss of selling short positions.
However, power producers with short positions are facing hefty margin calls from exchanges amid a surge in gas prices.
Government-backed guarantees could help address the liquidity crunch at power plants.
The third is to roll out a coalition-wide electricity demand reduction plan
, like the gas demand reduction agreement reached in July
.
The fourth is to
regulate carbon emissions controls in the EU ETS
, releasing more emissions permits when prices rise above a certain level.
Battle in the Kherson area as of September 5.
The Ukrainian army has made some progress, and the local Russian governing unit has stopped the preparations for the referendum on joining Russia.
(ISW)
However, just as the EU countries have recently failed to reach a plan to completely revoke visas issued to Russian citizens, or many countries in the above-mentioned natural gas demand reduction agreement have obtained their own exemptions, it is expected to launch an alliance-wide plan to deal with the energy crisis. will be difficult.
Sources from all parties also show that after more than a week of intensive negotiations, EU countries have not yet been able to reach an agreement.
According to more optimistic estimates, the European Commission may release the details of the plan on the same day as the EU's "State of the Union" speech on September 14.
more and more cracks
At present, the factors that can lead to the division of the EU are emerging one by one.
First of all, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not give up the interests of high oil prices after Biden’s “accusation” to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. On September 5th, OPEC and Russia jointly announced a daily production cut of 100,000 yuan. barrels of oil, canceling the same increase in production after Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia.
This shows the limits of US support for the EU on energy issues.
Second, in addition to the Czech Republic, some EU "peripheral countries" are also re-engaging in Russia's gas circle.
One is, of course, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has always been pro-Russian.
The second is Bulgaria after the government collapsed in June.
The country's transitional government, appointed by a pro-Russian president, is seeking to restart Russian gas supplies that had stopped in April, halted some planned LNG imports from the United States via Greece, and halted the process of an already-built gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Bulgaria. The approval process is hindered.
Bulgaria will hold its fourth general election in two years on October 2, the result of which will affect whether Bulgaria will return to the arms of Russian gas.
The problem is, the preparation needed for energy for the winter may not wait until October.
More seriously, Italy, the third largest country in the EU, which is much larger than Bulgaria, will face an early election on September 25.
The current Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who has played a leading role in solidarity and anti-Russia at the EU level since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, may be replaced by a far-right coalition government.
Although Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the leading FdI party in the coalition, has indicated that he will follow the ally's sanctions against Russia, Matteo Salvini, the leader of the second-largest League party (Lega) in the coalition, A few days ago, they questioned that the damage of Western sanctions to the West is more serious than that to Russia, and called on all parties to re-examine the sanctions against Russia.
After the elections, Italy could become another hole in the EU's aid-Ukrainian front against Russia.
The leader of the Fraternal Party (FdI), Giorgia Meloni, is expected to be the next Italian prime minister.
(AP)
It has long been estimated that this winter will be the biggest test of EU unity under the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Judging from the current situation, this test will probably come earlier than winter.
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