From time immemorial, the "middle-of-the-road elections" for all the members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the members of the Senate have been considered for the current president and his party.
The reason: in two years from the day of his election to the White House, at least some of the solemn promises, which he scattered on the eve of the elections, will fade away and shatter on the ground of the rebellious reality, its challenges and illusion.
Until recently, it seemed that this entrenched pattern was also reflected in the "mid-term elections", which will take place in exactly two months, on November 8, 2022. Indeed, President Biden has faltered in the polls for a long time (mainly due to the panicked withdrawal from Afghanistan) and found himself below the threshold 40 percent support for his leadership and policies.
The economic and energy consequences of the war in Ukraine and his inability (until recently) to pass in the Senate the groundbreaking legislative packages he promised his voters - only accelerated the trend.
And here, precisely against this gloomy and threatening background, Biden suddenly appears as someone who has begun to come back from the frost and the electoral depression, and to gradually strengthen his position and the rate of support for him.
Today it is at about 44 percent and continues to rise.
Paradoxically, the initial catalyst for the rise was not anchored in the president's political moves, but came as a direct result of the Supreme Court's ruling, where the strictly conservative wing today enjoys a solid majority.
An American helicopter arrives to rescue embassy workers from Kabul, August 2021, photo: GettyImages
At the end of June 2022, the Supreme Judicial Authority overturned the 1973 decision in the "Roe v. Wade" case, which gave US women the constitutional basis to have an abortion. The fact that the 45th president, Donald Trump, made a decisive contribution to shaping the image of the current Supreme Court by appointing No fewer than three ultra-conservative judges, whose opposition to this ruling was and still is a central pillar of their worldview, drew in its wake a wave of sharp public criticism towards him. the woman
This criticism soon went beyond the boundaries of gender and swept wide layers of American society with it, 62 percent of which continue to support the basic principles, according to which the historical law was formulated in the "Roe v. Wade" case.
The elimination of the al-Qaeda leader - a significant milestone
This affair did not remain a single event, but was integrated into a mask of events, which became milestones in Biden's journey back from the abyss.
One of the milestones in this recovery path was the decision of the rebel Democratic Senator, Joe Manchin from West Virginia, to "repent" and return to the bosom of the establishment in his party.
Until recently, Manchin thwarted most of the reforms initiated by the president in environmental, climate, education and welfare issues.
However, the U-turn he performed paved the way for the approval of most of the bills, and thus also allowed the person sitting in the Oval Office to market himself as someone who manages to fulfill, in practice, at least some of his key promises to his constituents.
Another significant landmark can be seen in the killing, on July 31, of al-Qaeda leader and co-planner of the September 11 attacks, Ayman al-Zawahiri, on Afghan soil.
This helped to position the liberal president as a fearless fighter against global terrorism, and at the same time it was possible for the US president to slightly obscure the consequences of its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, photo: AFP
The certain signs of improvement in the American economy, which surfaced in recent months, and which came to be expressed in encouraging employment figures and a high growth rate (despite the inflationary spiral that has not yet been curbed), contributed their part to the strengthening.
And finally, the fact that Biden's sworn political enemy, aka Trump, recently finds himself entangled and entangled up to his neck in a host of legal and ethical problems, could lead to devastating results for his party - especially regarding the cumulative effect of Trump's affairs on the "soft right" and the group of independent voters.
The overall result of this trend may help the Democratic faction in the Senate to maintain, and perhaps even strengthen, its position as the majority faction in the House.
In the House of Representatives, on the other hand, a Republican revolution is still expected, albeit with a narrow and fragile majority.
All that remains is to wait and see if these preferences on the national level and in the race for a third of the Senate seats will also permeate most constituencies in the House of Representatives and thus give a renewed impetus to the presidency and legacy of Joe Biden.
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