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Protests against rising cost of living in Sierra Leone in August: "I fear a conflagration"
Photo: Reuters
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has released a new, broad-based state of the world report, the Human Development Index.
The results are sobering: achievements of the past decades are being wiped out, the world is going downhill.
The effects of the pandemic are only now really becoming apparent, the climate crisis is taking hold and now there is the war in Ukraine.
The head of the UNDP, Achim Steiner, paints a bleak picture in an interview - and explains what needs to be done now.
MIRROR:
Mr
Steiner
,
things have been looking up for the past few years.
Poverty, child mortality and instability have decreased in Africa.
The continent was seen as a beacon of hope.
Now you come to the conclusion that almost everywhere in the world has gone downhill in the past two years.
That sounds pretty alarming.
Steiner:
For the first time in the 30-year history of the Human Development Index, we're seeing two consecutive years of decline, so that's a big red flag.
Usually we see that one country in ten takes a step backwards.
Now it's nine out of ten, and that's never happened before.
The corona crisis with all its social and economic consequences is only now really playing out.
National debt, price explosion, all this is coming together now.
SPIEGEL:
And the war in Ukraine hasn't even been priced in yet?
Steiner:
Exactly.
And that, of course, worries us enormously, because already in the first three months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the consequences on the world markets for food, for gasoline and diesel, were drastic.
This has resulted in over 70 million people falling back into poverty.
And now we may have a global recession just around the corner.
We are witnessing right now that the short-term and crisis management is overshadowing everything long-term, including the fight against climate change.
We are at a point where we are no longer able to act in many respects, neither politically nor economically.
MIRROR:
What do you mean by that?
Steiner:
The world is politically divided.
There are conflicts between Russia and the West, but also between the West and China.
At the same time, many developing countries have experienced during the pandemic that they have been left alone in their most vulnerable and defenseless moments.
This has left deep scars, and many countries are now looking at the international system with a great deal of skepticism.
People have lost trust: in governments, in their neighbors, in the countries that we have traditionally considered partners.
This is a crisis of confidence that is paralyzing us in many ways.
The challenges are huge, people are dying of hunger again in the Horn of Africa.
Caused on the one hand by a very long period of drought in the region, but also due to ongoing conflicts and the effects of the Ukraine crisis on the world market price for grain.
And the rich world is no longer even able to provide enough humanitarian aid.
The World Food Program is cutting rations at the moment simply because the resources are not there to help people in this emergency situation.
SPIEGEL:
In Europe, consumers are worried about rising heating costs.
How devastating are the effects of price escalation in the Global South?
Steiner:
In Africa, households spend up to 40 percent of their average income on having something to eat the next day.
World market prices have an immediate effect.
The crisis is having disastrous effects on poorer countries.
And that is why, at this very moment, the international community is asked to cushion the shock somewhat.
Many countries in Africa were already at the end of their budgets because of the pandemic.
They have got into debt, they can no longer borrow money on the capital markets, they can no longer even repay their interest, and many potential national bankruptcies are on the horizon.
We must prevent part of our global economy from collapsing.
SPIEGEL:
There have just been mass protests in Sierra Leone, also because of the skyrocketing cost of living.
Are we facing such unrest more often now?
Steiner:
In Sierra Leone, old conflicts and tensions are reappearing against the background of rising prices, and that the willingness to take to the streets is growing as a result.
We see that not only in Sierra Leone but also in many other parts of the world.
Of course, political forces also take advantage of this.
We are living through a period in which tensions within countries, but also conflicts between countries, are increasing exponentially.
We have never had as many refugees and internally displaced persons as this year since 1945.
SPIEGEL:
Are you afraid of a wildfire?
Steiner:
Yes, and not only in Africa.
That's a very real risk.
We have over 80 developing countries on our list where we see a huge debt risk.
That means they could become insolvent within a matter of weeks or months.
At that moment there is no more import of petrol, no sufficient food supply.
This triggers violent crises, as recently in Sri Lanka.
In addition, many governments are currently trying to counteract this with subsidies, for example on food prices and oil.
But for many countries this is permanently unaffordable.
When the subsidies run out, as they did recently in Kenya, for example, the residents have to spend twice as much on basic foodstuffs from one day to the next.
It is very difficult for a society to endure that.
SPIEGEL
: That all sounds very gloomy.
Are there ways out of the crisis?
Steiner:
There are thousands of ways out of the crisis.
The more people feel disempowered, the more they feel that others are making decisions for them, the more they move away from a political consensus.
That means we have to focus on people with their acute needs in this crisis.
We need to reinvest in collective action.
We cannot simply ignore the debt problem either; the rich world should, if only out of its own interest, negotiate debt relief for poorer countries.
We also have to focus more on innovation, we have to invest in the technological possibilities of tomorrow, even in poorer countries.
SPIEGEL:
Are you angry that hardly anything is happening?
Steiner:
Anger doesn't help much here, but my concern is growing.
And with it the disappointment about how unreasonably we deal with the opportunities that are given to us.
Gorbachev's death reminded me once again that we ultimately didn't use a peace dividend.
That in 2022 we are at a point where we suddenly say again: Yes, weapons are the most important means of overcoming our great challenges of the 21st century.
I'm not the only one concerned.
The outlook for someone who is 18 today is one of deep concern and uncertainty about the future.
It's up to us now not to just sit back or trudge like sheep in a flock.
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