A new European country with a government supported by the far right, or a third term for the left?
Sweden finishes voting on Sunday September 11 after a campaign with maximum suspense and an unprecedented scenario, dominated by crime and inflation.
Never until these legislative elections had the traditional Swedish right considered governing with the direct or indirect support of the Democrats of Sweden (SD).
Long pariah, the nationalist and anti-immigration party is on the way according to the polls to grab a second place never reached and to become the first formation of a new right-wing bloc.
“
We want to be part of the government, we will see tonight if it will be possible
,” their leader Jimmie Åkesson told reporters, waiting in a long queue on Sunday afternoon to vote in Stockholm.
Read alsoIn Sweden, the radical right at the gates of power
The outgoing Prime Minister, the Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, hopes to stay in power based on a “
red-green
” package, for a third term of four years in a row for the left.
The campaign was dominated by themes likely to favor the right-wing opposition: criminality and deadly gang settling, soaring fuel and electricity prices, integration problems... But Magdalena's solid popularity Andersson, whose trust rating exceeds that of his conservative rival Ulf Kristersson, as well as the bogeyman of the far right, are making the case for the left.
The two camps neck and neck
The five polling institutes give a very slight lead to the red-green camp in their last bursts (49.6% to 51.6%), against 47.6 to 49.4% for the total right/extreme right, but all are within the margin of error.
"
It's very, very tight
," noted Prime Minister Andersson as she left the polling station late Sunday morning.
The day before, on her last day of campaigning, the 55-year-old leader said she was "
worried about a government completely dependent on the Democrats of Sweden
".
The last two weeks of the campaign have seen the SD, led for the fifth election by Jimmie Åkesson, overtake the Moderates in the polls, around 19-21%, a new record.
Significant immigration in recent years and serious nagging problems with criminal gangs have fueled the party.
349 seats to be filled
The post of Prime Minister traditionally returns in Sweden to the first party of the victorious alliance.
If SD hopes for ministries, the other right-wing parties are reluctant to have him in government, preferring to have him in support of Parliament.
On the left too, the exact form of an executive coming out of the polls remains marked by uncertainty, with disagreements between parties of the Left and the Center.
But political scientists say a political crisis similar to that which followed the 2018 elections - four months to form a government - is unlikely, as the camps are better delineated.
The victory of the right supported by the extreme right would open a new political era for Sweden, which must take the rotating presidency of the European Union on January 1 and finalize its historic candidacy for NATO - also supported by the rights.
A total of 349 seats are allocated proportionally to parties achieving at least 4%.
To be invested, a Prime Minister must not have 175 votes or more against him, but not necessarily an absolute majority in his favour.