Just before the closing of the lists of candidates in the Central Election Commission, a survey by "Israel Hayom" and the "Mindpool" institute under the management of Prof. Yitzhak Katz, reveals that if the elections were held today, Netanyahu's bloc would have won 60 mandates.
The survey also shows that Ayelet Shaked's race in the elections as part of a party she leads reduces the mandate from the right to 59, while she herself does not pass the percentage of obstruction.
Quite a few events were recorded this week, in the last news before the closing of the lists on Thursday: the Zionist spirit of Ayelet Shaked and Yoaz Handel disintegrated, Yair Lapid failed - at least for now - in his attempt to unite the Labor Party and Meretz into one list, and the factions in Torah Judaism agreed to run together.
As of writing these lines, it is still unclear who Netanyahu intends to reserve in the places reserved for him on the Likud list.
Netanyahu and the leaders of Torah Judaism.
Another successful reunion,
The survey, which was conducted this week using 503 respondents who are a representative sample of those with the right to vote in Israel, with a sampling error of 4.4%, tested several possible scenarios before the lists are closed: the survey shows that if the elections were held today, the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu would be the largest party in the Knesset with 33 mandates, and in second place is Atid led by Yair Lapid with 23 mandates.
The title of the third largest party is held by two: Religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, and the state camp led by Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa'ar, with 12 mandates each.
They are followed by Shas, Torah Judaism and Labor with 7 mandates each, Meretz with 5 mandates, while Yisrael Beitenu receives only 4 mandates. The joint list with 6 mandates, and Ra'am led by Mansor Abbas receives 4 mandates.
A party led by Shaked does not pass the threshold and receives 0.9%, as does the Burning Youth party led by Hadar Mokhtar, which receives 0.8%.
It should be emphasized that Shaked is running alone without connection with the Jewish Home party led by Yossi Brodani.
Bennett does not insult Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett, who serves today as the alternate prime minister, has indeed announced that he will not run in these elections, but by Thursday he can repent and present his candidacy.
The survey also looked at this possibility, and the results show that Bennett's running does not decrease mandates for the Netanyahu bloc, and it remains at 60. Bennett himself will, according to the survey, receive five mandates, mainly at the expense of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz.
Netanyahu and Bennett, photo: Mark Israel Salem
And what happens if Labor and Meretz do unite in the end at the last moment?
The survey shows that in such a case the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and their united list will receive 13 mandates, one more than in a separate run.
Apparently this is an imperceptible change, but in fact it is a drastic turn and in this scenario the Netanyahu bloc wins 61 mandates.
On the question of suitability for the prime ministership, Netanyahu continues to lead by a large margin: 44% said that he is the most suitable, 24% think that Lapid is better, while 11% think that the suitable man is Benny Gantz.
21% answered that they do not know or other answers.
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