Just before the closing of the lists of candidates in the Central Election Commission, a survey by "Israel Hayom" and the "Mind Pool" institute under the management of Prof. Yitzhak Katz, reveals that if the elections were held today, the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu would win 60 seats.
The survey also shows that Ayelet Shaked's race in the elections as part of a party she leads reduces the mandate from the right to 59. She herself does not pass the threshold.
The survey also examined what would happen if Naftali Bennett decided at the last minute to run.
Quite a few events were recorded this week, in the last gospel before the closing of the lists on Thursday.
The Zionist spirit of Ayelet Shaked and Yoaz Handel has disintegrated, Yair Lapid has failed, at least for now, in trying to unite the Labor Party and Meretz into one list.
It is still unclear whether the ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi faction will hold together, and also who Netanyahu intends to reserve in the places reserved for him on the Likud list.
The survey, conducted this week using 503 respondents who are a representative sample of those with the right to vote in Israel with a sampling error of 4.4%, tested a number of possible scenarios before the lists are closed.
The survey shows that if the elections were held today, the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu would be the largest party in the Knesset with 33 seats.
Yesh Atid is led by Yair Lapid with 23 mandates.
The title of the third largest party is shared by two: the religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, and the democratic camp led by Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa'ar.
Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
They are followed by Shas with 8 mandates, Torah Judaism with 7, Labor also with 7 mandates. Meretz with 5 mandates while Yisrael Beitenu receives only 4. The joint list with 5 mandates and Ra'am led by Mansor Abbas - 4. The Burning Youth party led by Hadar Mokhtar does not pass the percentage of blocking and receives 1.4%.
From this figure it appears that if Ayelet Shaked does not run in the end - the right-wing bloc will receive 60 mandates.
The embarrassment that was avoided by Handel's daring
If Shaked contests - the right-wing bloc drops to 59 mandates, Shaked itself does not pass the percentage of blocking and receives 0.9%.
It should be emphasized that Shaked is running alone without connection with the Jewish Home party led by Yossi Brodani.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Naftali Bennett, who serves today as the alternate prime minister, has indeed announced that he will not run in these elections, but by Thursday he can repent and present his candidacy.
The survey also examined this possibility.
The results show that Bennett's running does not reduce mandates for the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu, and he remains at 60. Bennett himself, according to the survey, will receive five mandates, mainly at the expense of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz.
Yoaz Handel and Ayelet Shaked at the signing of the agreement, photo: Ariel Zandberg
And what happens if Labor and Meretz do unite in the end at the last moment?
The survey shows that their united list will receive 13 mandates, just like in a separate run.
Seemingly an imperceptible change but actually a drastic change.
The survey shows that a joint run by Meretz and Labor will result in 61 mandates for the right-wing bloc, as religious Zionism increases in mandate to 13.
In recent days there has been a lot of talk about Ayelet Shaked's race and her attempts to reposition herself as belonging to the right-wing bloc, but what is happening with her former partner Yoaz Hendel?
The survey examined the political situation of the Minister of Communications, and reveals that a party led by him receives only 1% and does not pass the blocking percentage.
On the question of suitability for the prime ministership, Netanyahu continues to lead by a large margin.
44% said it was the most suitable.
24% think Shalapid, while 11% think that the right man is Benny Gantz.
Don't know and other answers - 21%.
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