The successes announced by the Ukrainian army and the Western sanctions are certainly a blow for Russia, but President Vladimir Putin can still count on a weighty ally: China, which has just reaffirmed its support.
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In his first overseas trip since the pandemic began, Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet his Russian counterpart this week at a regional summit in Uzbekistan, a show of unity that thwarts US plans to isolate Moscow .
If Beijing never explicitly supported the Russian invasion, it did not condemn it and on the other hand denounced Western sanctions and arms sales to kyiv.
And, for China, Moscow is a key partner to counterbalance Washington on the international stage.
"
Reasonable
"
On Monday, Yang Jiechi, the Communist Party's head of diplomacy, told Russia's ambassador to China that the two countries could together "
promote the development of the international order in a more just and reasonable direction
." ".
On the trade side, China has increased its purchases of Russian oil in recent months.
Between May and July, Moscow was its main supplier of crude, helping to mitigate the economic impact of the sanctions.
Last week, the Communist regime's number three, Li Zhanshu, became the most senior Chinese leader to visit Russia since the Russian military intervention began.
During his visit, he praised the "
unprecedented level
" of trust and cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.
hopes
On closer inspection, Li Zhanshu's trip also reveals that Beijing wants to avoid being the target of Western sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine.
While, according to the Russian transcription of its statements, China says it “
fully understands the necessity of all measures taken by Russia to protect its interests
” and “
provides (its) assistance
”, not a word about it appears in the Chinese version.
“
As Russia's position deteriorates, Putin will seek stronger support from China
,” assumes Hal Brands, professor of international relations at the Johns Hopkins Institute in Washington.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin had last seen each other in early February in Beijing, on the occasion of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, less than three weeks before the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
Moscow and Beijing then signed a joint declaration calling for a “
new era
” in international relations, reaffirming that “
the friendship between the two countries has no limits
”.
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Their new meeting comes "
at a time of great movements on the battlefield, which means that Russia places its many hopes in the help of China
", underlines Joseph Torigian, expert in international policy at the American University in Washington.
It remains to be seen whether Russia will not “
ask too much and to what extent China thinks it can help (Moscow) without sacrificing its own economic interests,
” Joseph Torigian told AFP.
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