Ukraine uses 'element of surprise': Map shows which territories will be recaptured from Russia
Created: 09/13/2022, 11:23 am
By: Tobias Utz
A map of the ISW on the occupied territories by Russia in Ukraine (colored red).
In addition, regions that are being recaptured by Ukrainian forces can be seen (colored blue).
(Screenshot) © Institute for the Study of War / ISW
According to the intelligence service, Ukraine's recapture of territories is a "turning point" in the war.
One expert sees a “moment of surprise” above all.
Kyiv – The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian troops is in full swing.
The military operations that have been carried out for weeks are currently reaching their peak.
Progress has been made in several areas, including the Kharkiv region in the east and the Kherson region in the south.
The think tank "Institute for the Study of War", which regularly comments on the Ukraine war, has analyzed the current situation and states in a situation report: "The Ukrainian counter-offensive [...] has a significant impact on Russian morale and the military capabilities.” Accordingly, satellite images show that Russian troops have cleared several known command posts in the Kherson region, for example.
News about the Ukraine war: counter-offensive seems to have been successful
According to military expert Andreas Flocken, the Ukrainian army is playing their cards with careful drone surveillance and an "element of surprise".
He told
the
Tagesschau that the Russian army had probably been confused.
"There was always talk of a major counter-offensive being launched in the south in the Cherson area.
That's why the Russian armed forces have even moved some of their troops from the east to the south," said Flocken, editor for security policy at
NDR
, in an interview.
Western military support for Ukraine remains central to the counteroffensive.
Flocken referred to weapon systems and multiple rocket launchers.
The falling morale in the Russian army, as mentioned by the ISW, is also a factor: “It is obvious that the Ukrainians who are defending their country have very different motivations than the attackers.
We keep hearing that the Russians refused to obey orders, that the Russian troops are not properly motivated.” For months there have been reports of declining morale in the Russian military, and revolts and refusals to fight have been reported time and again.
An insider also calculated that the conditions in the army were "miserable".
News on the Ukraine war: US intelligence sees "turning point" in counteroffensive
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the declining morale of the troops could also affect the deployment of newly mobilized reserve units.
Most recently, the Kremlin launched a covert mobilization.
"The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian military command has suspended the deployment of new, already formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian casualties and widespread distrust of the Russian military command, factors that have prompted a large number of volunteers who To categorically refuse to take part in combat operations," the situation report says, referring to information from the Ukrainian army.
The US secret service sees the "turning point" in the Ukraine war in the withdrawal of Russian troops, including in the Kharkiv region.
Although Russia's next steps are currently unclear, the "weaknesses have been revealed".
There is a "lack of manpower or equipment," an official told The
Washington Post
.
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The information mentioned comes partly from warring factions in the Ukraine conflict and cannot be independently verified directly.
Therefore, they should be evaluated with reservations.
However, the consistency of information from various sources shows that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is actually taking place as described.
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