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Energy: prices will rise by 15% next year

2022-09-14T18:15:23.424Z


The tariff shield will be less protective from January, announced Elisabeth Borne. Power cuts could occur this winter.


Public opinion has been preparing for this unpopular announcement for weeks.

Public finances will not be able to continue, in 2023, to absorb almost all the gas and electricity price increases.

Especially since these increases promise to be spectacular if we rely on the market forecasts presented by the Prime Minister: due to the risk of shortages linked to the war in Ukraine, gas prices would be multiplied by five in 2023 compared at the level of 2021, and those of electricity by ten.

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Only a small part of this surge will be passed on to individuals, small businesses, condominiums, social housing, villages... In 2023, their bills will increase by 15%, from January for gas and February for electricity.

The 2023 increases will lead to an average increase in bills of around 25 euros per month for households that heat with gas, instead of around 200 euros per month without a tariff shield

, explains Élisabeth Borne

.

And an average increase of around 20 euros per month for households that heat with electricity, instead of 180 euros per month, without a price shield

.

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These increases are not trivial for many French people

”, recognizes the Prime Minister, announcing specific support for the most modest.

Energy vouchers of 100 to 200 euros, depending on the composition of the household, will then be paid before the end of the year to 12 million households, “

i.e. one in four households

” for a total cost of 1.8 billion euros. , already provided for in the 2022 budget, according to Bruno Le Maire.

Soaring bills

This year, the French have only been marginally affected by soaring energy prices, with gas prices frozen since last October and an increase in electricity prices limited to 4%.

The tariff shield largely explains the lower inflation in France: 6.5%, against a European average of 9.1%.

The head of government thus has it easy to recall that during the same period the gas bills of the Germans or the Dutch had tripled, and those of electricity more than doubled.

In the United Kingdom, where a popular protest movement is gaining ground, the energy regulator has announced a mechanical increase in tariffs of 80% on October 1 for gas and electricity.

Without government action, the average bill for a British household would then reach more than 700 pounds (811 euros) for the month of January alone, according to the think-tank Resolution Foundation.

The portfolio of the French is not threatened by such an earthquake.

The following generations, on the other hand, will perceive the note.

Bercy estimates that the new 2023 tariff shield will cost public finances 45 billion euros.

A gross cost, however, revised to 16 billion euros net, taking into account the market mechanisms which force energy companies, and in particular producers of renewable electricity, to pay part of their earnings to the State.

The French will be protected from an uncontrolled explosion of their gas and electricity bills.

But they may not be spared targeted cuts this winter.

If energy prices are soaring, it is largely because Europe tends to run out of gas, and France of electricity to get through the winter.

"Only sobriety and European solidarity will allow us to avoid cuts"

in the event of a particularly cold winter, warns Elisabeth Borne.

"

In the most likely scenarios, if everyone takes responsibility and shows the necessary sobriety, there will be no cuts,"

she continues.

In the most likely scenarios, if everyone takes their responsibilities and shows the necessary sobriety, there will be no cuts.

Elisabeth Borne, Prime Minister

The electricity network manager, RTE, which published its scenarios for the passage of winter on Wednesday, does not say anything else.

The nuclear fleet, which generates 70% of French electricity, risks being at its lowest.

Only 45 gigawatts of power, maximum, will be available in the heart of winter, according to RTE's median scenario.

Last winter, which was already tense, RTE was able to count on 50 gigawatts.

At best, if EDF sticks to its provisional schedule, France will have 50 gigawatts.

But this assumes the timely return to service of 5 reactors per month in September and October, then 7 in November and finally 3 per month in January and February.

That is 25 reactors to be restarted on schedule.

But EDF has not proven that it could be punctual every time.

To further complicate the passage of winter, the filling of hydroelectric dams will be at a historically low level at the start of winter, due to the historic drought that has raged this summer.

In this context, a

“risk of cuts cannot be completely excluded”

, but

“it could be avoided by lowering national consumption by 1 to 5% in the majority of cases, and up to 15% in the worst weather situations. more extreme”

, figures its president, Xavier Piechaczyk.

"If the winter is mild, you won't hear from us,"

he says.

But if it is harder, then the French risk repeatedly receiving a red Ecowatt signal if they have registered for this alert service (www.monecowatt.fr).

It should be taken as a warning: if households do not reduce their consumption, then RTE will be forced to activate

"rotating cuts"

.

Unprecedentedly, only voluntary action on the part of French people and companies will make it possible to avoid this mechanism of last resort.

“The vast majority of situations that we anticipate only envisage a few red Ecowatt signals for this winter

,” insists Xavier Piechaczyk.

At worst, in the event of a cold winter and a shortage of gas, RTE anticipates between 20 and 30 red Ecowatt signals, which would concern 5% of the time this winter.

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To convince the French that their small gestures can make a big difference, RTE has quantified their impacts.

A drop of one degree in the temperature of housing and tertiary buildings would save 2.2 gigawatts (the equivalent of the power of 2 nuclear reactors).

In the event of a red Ecowatt alert, turning off public lighting, neon signs and reducing lighting in buildings and at home would reduce consumption by 1.5 gigawatts in the evening (equivalent to a nuclear reactor).

Another example.

Consumption peaks are generated, between noon and 2 p.m. as well as in the evening, by cooking appliances up to 6 gigawatts.

"In the case of red Ecowatt, this use must be moderated, avoid turning on the oven and long cooking times"

, says Jean-Paul Roubin, director of operations at RTE.

If half of the households apply these eco-gestures to the kitchen, it would save up to 0.6 gigawatts in the evening.

The good passage of winter is decidedly in the hands of the French.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2022-09-14

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