Poll crash: traffic light loses the majority – Union is far ahead of the SPD

Created: 09/16/2022, 10:10 am

By: Andreas Schmid

According to a recent survey, threatened to lose the majority of seats in the Bundestag: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Robert Habeck (Greens).

The FDP is also struggling.

© Kay Nietfeld/dpa

No traffic light party can grow in the new "Germany trend" - on the contrary.

SPD, Greens and FDP would no longer have a majority with the current approval ratings.

Berlin – Forming a “progress coalition” was the declared goal of the traffic light at the end of 2021.

Almost a year after the federal elections and in the midst of crises from Corona to the Ukraine war, however, the euphoria has evaporated.

Opposition leader and CDU boss Friedrich Merz even spoke of "one of the weakest federal governments of all time" - now the traffic light is losing its majority in a recent survey.

ARD “Germany trend”: Traffic light crashes in survey

According to the current “Germany trend” by ARD, the SPD, Greens and FDP together only get 45 percent.

If the federal elections were to be held on Sunday, the alliance would miss a majority in parliament.

The strongest force would be the Union with 28 percent;

one percentage point more than in the last “Germany trend” from September 1st.

The Greens lose one percentage point and come to 21 percent.

This means that the eco-party is still the second strongest force, ahead of the chancellor's party SPD.

The Social Democrats remain unchanged at 17 percent.

14 percent of those surveyed would opt for the AfD, which would increase by one percentage point.

The right-wing populists had also increased slightly in other recent surveys.

In the current “Germany trend”, the FDP has seven percent (-1), the left has five percent of the vote.

People worry about the energy crisis: Why the traffic light is so bad in surveys

Why is the federal government doing so poorly?

One aspect seems to be the dwindling trust in individual traffic light ministers such as Robert Habeck (Greens), head of the economics department.

The most popular minister for a long time is currently in the mood low that other cabinet members such as Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) have been in for a long time.

Traffic light coalition: The Scholz cabinet at a glance

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Another aspect seems to be the currently tense supply situation due to rising energy prices and inflation.

It would be wrong to blame the traffic light alone for this.

Nevertheless, it is inevitably associated with the current situation.

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Survey on energy costs: more than one in three expects problems

According to “Deutschlandtrend”, more than every third adult in Germany (39 percent) expects not to be able to pay energy bills next winter or only with considerable difficulty.

Above all, people with lower incomes and younger people were worried.

58 percent of those who have a low monthly net household income (less than 1,500 euros) expect payment difficulties.

According to the survey, the significant increase in gas and electricity costs means that Germans are looking to the future with negative economic expectations.

More than eight out of ten respondents (83 percent) expected jobs to be lost.

Only 13 percent did not expect this.

However, most people in Germany (59 percent) believe that there will be no power and gas supply failures in the winter months.

Note on the survey

According to its own statements, the Infratest Dimap institute interviewed a total of 1,224 eligible voters in Germany from September 13th to 14th for the survey.

The error tolerance is between two and three percentage points.

ARD "Germany trend": Majority for coalition of CDU/CSU and Greens

Incidentally, the result is very interesting for coalition building.

Goodbye traffic light, hello black and green?

In contrast to the traffic light, an alliance of the Union and the Greens would achieve the required majority.

This model already exists at state level.

For years, Winfried Kretschmann, a green prime minister, has governed Baden-Württemberg together with the CDU.

At the same time, the CDU has repeatedly relied on the Greens as a junior partner, for example in Hesse, Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia.

After the upcoming state elections in Lower Saxony (October 9th), black and green could also become interesting.