China expert sees Putin on "diplomatic egg dance" with Xi - and far from "eye level".

Created: 09/17/2022, 06:03

By: Marc Beyer

Xi and Putin meet in Samarkand.

In an interview, political scientist and author Alexander Görlach analyzes what the meeting means for the West.

Munich – The presidents of China and Russia met in Samarkand on Thursday.

In an interview, China expert Alexander Görlach assesses the relationship between the two countries and explains why Beijing only supports its neighbor with rhetorical means, but not materially.

The political scientist and author ("Red Alert") lives in New York.

China's President Xi Jinping (left) and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin: What does the meeting in Samarkand mean?

© Alexandr Demyanchuk/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP/dpa

For Xi Jinping, it is the first trip abroad since the outbreak of the corona pandemic.

What does it mean that he meets Vladimir Putin on this trip?

He wants to show internally that he has the situation under control before the party congress in October.

Externally, it is the confirmation of the alliance with Russia, which is above all an alliance against the free world and specifically the USA.

The declared goal is to create a new world order together.

What is the current balance of power between Beijing and Moscow?

This is not a relationship of equals.

Russia needs China.

Beijing gets gas at a significantly reduced price.

Vladimir Putin needs buyers, he can no longer sell his gas in the West.

That's why he's also urging Xi to build another pipeline.

Are the Russians far from even remotely equal?

I don't even know if this level of equality ever existed.

You can support each other because Russia has no interest in Taiwan and China has no interest in Ukraine.

So the two have no conflict of interest.

But at eye level?

I don't think Beijing sees it that way.

Russia is almost ostracized in the West.

Could there come a moment for China when it is no longer wise to stand with Moscow?

This is already a diplomatic dance ball.

On the one hand, Xi is looking for the big stage to show his people at home that he is talking to the powerful.

At the same time, you don't want to be friends with a loser in the war.

The Chinese Ambassador here in the US recently emphasized that the principles of the UN Charter and international relations should be respected.

That is also a rhetorical move away from the Russian war of aggression.

The People's Republic doesn't think that's a great idea because, from Beijing's point of view, the violation of national sovereignty could quickly become an own goal, especially with regard to Taiwan.

Beijing also maintains diplomatic relations with Ukraine.

At the same time, they are practicing solidarity with Moscow.

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What conclusions does China draw regarding its own trade relations with the West?

I don't think Putin fundamentally misjudged West's dependence, because we are indeed dependent on Russian gas.

However, he thought that because of this dependency, he would be given a free pass in Ukraine.

China does not want to be caught in the line of sanctions.

This is shown by the fact that no arms are supplied to Russia.

Beijing is also keeping a low profile when it comes to delivering goods that could be interpreted as partisanship.

However, there are also voices saying that the situation is now accelerating China's decoupling efforts.

Because if you want to take over Taiwan, you can no longer stay integrated into the world economy.

You have to be more independent in order not to be forced to give up by sanctions.

In view of its ambitions in Taiwan, what does China learn from Russia's military problems?

One must take into account that the Russian army supports the Chinese in its modernization.

She tries to teach her urban warfare or guerrilla tactics.

In China, of course, you can now see that it didn't work out in Ukraine.

Strategies that could lead to a possible conquest of Taiwan will now be reconsidered.

But I don't think that has blown the light out of the general goal of so-called reunification with Taiwan.

There is no change of direction in China.

Is there a red line for China that Russia must not cross in Ukraine?

It could be a nuclear strike.

I don't think Beijing would have any interest in the countries in its immediate vicinity striving for their own nuclear weapons after a nuclear strike carried out by Russia with impunity, on the grounds that all the UN resolutions are useless anyway.

That would be a super meltdown for China.

Interview: Marc Beyer