In recent days, a number of experts and government officials have exchanged fires over whether the death rate of the new crown is similar to or lower than that of the flu.
According to a study published earlier by Harbin Engineering University in China, data from South Africa, the United States and Canada were used to simulate the spread of new coronary pneumonia, and the difference between Omicron and influenza was estimated, and Omicron was described as an "exaggerated version of seasonal influenza", although it was higher than influenza. It has a lower transmission rate but a lower death rate than the flu, and the study suggests that previous public health measures against seasonal flu have been effective against Omicron, and the findings have been accepted for publication in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.
However, Leung Chi-chao, a local respiratory specialist, believes that the relevant research is only calculated by mathematical models, and believes that it is more appropriate to discuss with real-world data, but agrees that the current epidemic prevention measures need to be relaxed.
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The study collected data on outbreaks in South Africa, the United States and Canada over the past two years, including vaccinations, daily new confirmed cases and new deaths.
The study used a data model to simulate the spread of new coronary pneumonia, and calculated the transmission rate and mortality of Omicron.
The study used data from the past two years of epidemics to compare the transmission rate and mortality rate of seasonal influenza settled from August 6, 2017 to December 22, 2019, and found that the transmission rate of Omicron in the United States was 0.407, four times that of seasonal influenza. , while the Omicron mortality rate is only 0.0001, which is lower than the influenza 0.0064.
Canada has a similar situation. The average transmission rate of seasonal influenza and Omicron is 0.158 and 0.360, while the mortality rate of Omicron is only 0.0001, which is lower than that of influenza 0.0064.
The study described Omicron as an "exaggerated version of seasonal influenza", which has a higher transmission rate than influenza, but a lower mortality rate than influenza. The situation is contrary to other mutated strains of new coronary pneumonia. It is believed to be based on previous responses to seasonal influenza. Public health measures are effective against Omicron.
Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao believes that relevant research is only calculated from mathematical models and discussed using real-world data.
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Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao believes that the relevant research is only calculated by mathematical models, and most people in the United States and Canada have not reported their own infection, and believes that this may affect the fatality rate.
He also pointed out that many factors will affect the fatality rate, such as the fall of hospitals, etc., so he believes that real-world data should be used for discussion.
He pointed out that the WHO announced that the death rate of BA1, BA2 and BA5 was 0.3 to 0.4%, which was slightly higher than that of influenza, and the mortality rate of the new wave of epidemics in Singapore and Taiwan was 0.1% and 0.2%.
He agrees that there is a gap in the current epidemic prevention for one old and one young, but the relevant population is less than 10%. In addition, the current epidemic prevention measures such as vaccination, etc., cannot attract them to get injections. He believes that the vaccination and external prevention measures should be relaxed. There is no vaccine anywhere.”
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