What if Putin loses?

This is how experts assess the danger of a nuclear strike

Created: 09/17/2022, 06:03

By: Andreas Schmid

Does Vladimir Putin stick to the nuclear taboo in the Ukraine war?

© Russian Defense Ministry/afp/Bruckmann/Litzka (montage)

Concerns about Russian nuclear weapons have been smoldering since the start of the Ukraine war.

According to military experts, there is currently no threat of a nuclear strike.

But not all of them gave the all-clear.

Moscow – It is still unclear whether the current Ukrainian counter-offensive is a turning point in the war.

But it may be, military experts believe.

Since the beginning of September, Russian troops have been retreating in several areas of Ukraine, primarily in eastern Kharkiv.

An end to the war is of course not yet in sight.

The military situation is too ambiguous and the positions of the warring parties differ too far for possible negotiations.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin seems to be getting restless.

Also because of arms deliveries from the West.

A quick war is long gone, morale is apparently dwindling and even Putin's strict propaganda language rules are crumbling.

How is Russia reacting?

Again and again, in the event of a further escalation of nuclear or chemical weapons.

The Kremlin is stoking this scenario itself – but as things stand at present, it is unlikely to turn it into reality.

Ukraine war: Russia threatens nuclear weapons

On Thursday, Russia warned the US against supplying longer-range missiles to Ukraine.

This would cross a "red line" and make the United States a party to the conflict, said Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

In this case, the nuclear power Russia reserves the right to defend itself with “all possible means”.

Shortly after the start of the Ukraine war, Russia had put its nuclear weapons on increased standby.

In the course of the Ukraine war, Russia repeatedly threatened it, more or less openly, with its nuclear arsenal.

On Russian television, talk show guests calculated how long it would take for a nuclear weapon to reach Berlin.

It should be 106 seconds.

But is this threat real?

Experts give the all-clear.

Is Russia Using Nuclear Weapons?

"Currently very unlikely"

Military expert Gustav Gressel does not currently see this danger.

"I think that's relatively unlikely," he says in an interview with our editors.

"A tactical nuclear weapon would change little at the front, if only because the Ukrainian military is organized in a relatively decentralized manner." Gressel believes that Putin would not have stopped the recent Kharkiv offensive with a nuclear weapon.

"It would have taken ten or twenty such bombs for that."

Carlo Masala from the University of the Bundeswehr does not fear the use of nuclear weapons either.: "Of course there is always this theoretical option of using chemical or nuclear weapons in the background," said the military expert to the

portal .

"At the moment I think that's very unlikely."

According to Masala, the use of nuclear weapons is currently unimaginable for strategic reasons alone.

The costs for Russia are too high.

"Where should Vladimir Putin use these weapons," asks Masala.

“In Kyiv, so that the Ukrainians surrender?

They wouldn't do that, which even Putin has probably recognized in the meantime." The deployment on the front line also makes no sense.

"Here he would risk contaminating his own people."

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Use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

"That would be Putin's end and he knows it"

Peter Neumann from London's Kings College takes a similar view.

"I currently consider the use of nuclear weapons to be out of the question." This is due to the threat of a reaction from the West, especially the USA.

“Putin is aware that in such a case the US would immediately actively intervene in the war.

That would be Putin's end and he knows it."

The same applies to chemical weapons, says Neumann.

“It is hard to imagine that the US and Europe would stand by and see Ukrainian civilians being injured and killed with mustard or chlorine gas. 

Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov said in early May: "It is our country that in recent years has repeatedly suggested to its American counterparts to reiterate that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and that, therefore, must never take place.”

Will Russia use nuclear weapons next year?

“We have to take that into account”

However, other experts assess the situation somewhat differently.

Russia expert Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck recently said on ORF television that the danger of using nuclear weapons would increase if Russia lost areas in Kharkiv and Crimea.

At first there could be a kind of warning explosion.

If the Ukrainians don't give in then, he believes, a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine would also be possible.

For the

, too, the counteroffensive is not only "an important turning point in the war," but also a "danger" in Putin's hands.

The US newspaper writes: "Western heads of state and government must be prepared for the fact that he will use nuclear weapons or try to drag NATO directly into the conflict."

British ex-general Sir Richard Barrons said in an interview with

that the use of Russian nuclear weapons should be expected if the war escalated further.

"If there were signs next year that Ukraine was winning the war and Russia was faced with a defeat that was perceived to threaten the country's security, Russian military doctrine would use small, tactical nuclear weapons.

We have to take that into account.”

Nuclear weapons: Putin would be internationally isolated if taboos were broken

The consequences of using nuclear weapons would be devastating.

For the people affected, but also for Vladimir Putin.

The use of nuclear weapons is currently a worldwide taboo.

Putin would probably have to pay for this break with increasing international isolation.

Even pro-Russian states like Brazil, India or China would probably condemn the action, says Masala.

"The reactions would be devastating," says Gressel.

Conclusion

: According to experts, the use of nuclear weapons is currently not an acute threat.

Still, the risk of Putin using a nuclear weapon is not zero.

The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk could become.