Affected by the epidemic prevention measures, Hong Kong's customs clearance is still indefinite, and the economy continues to be weak.
Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said in his blog today (18th) that it is estimated that the 2022/23 financial year will record a deficit of more than 100 billion yuan, nearly double the estimate in this year's budget.
He bluntly said that this will be the second-highest fiscal deficit on record, after the previous year's record deficit of 232.5 billion yuan, and the government's fiscal reserves may further fall to the edge of 800 billion yuan.
Chen Maobo said that with the decrease in income and the increase in expenditure, and the complex and volatile external political and economic environment, the economic outlook of Hong Kong is still full of challenges, and the outlook for the economy in the next few quarters is still grim.
He continued to point out that although the second phase of consumer coupons issued in October will inject more than 15 billion yuan of consumption power into the consumer market and play a boosting role, the key to economic improvement is that the epidemic is more controlled, and reiterated that the cross-border The environment is often at the heart of restoring economic momentum.
Hong Kong's streets are frozen under the epidemic:
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Chen Maobo published a blog with the title of "Progress and Retreat with Steady and Prudent Financial Management".
He said that under the economic downturn, it can be expected that the government's revenue will not be as good as expected, but the expenditure has increased, and the fiscal situation this year will be worse than expected. The estimated 56.3 billion yuan in the budget at the beginning of this year will also be the second-highest fiscal deficit in history, second only to the historical record of 232.5 billion yuan in the previous year. The government's fiscal reserves may fall to the edge of 800 billion yuan by then. If the 35 billion yuan of green bonds to be issued are not counted, the deficit will be even worse.
Stamp duty may be cut by a third than expected
Chen Maobo continued to point out that this year's income is lower than expected. In terms of stamp duty, the average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks from April to August this year was 117 billion yuan, 26% less than the same period last year; the transaction volume of residential buildings in the first four months of this year also decreased by 37%. %.
Stamp duty revenue is likely to be about a third lower than expected due to weakness in the stock and housing markets.
In addition, the land price income for the first five months of this year was 17.2 billion yuan, which is far from the estimated income of 120 billion yuan for the whole year. In April, there was even a failed bid for residential land.
Hong Kong Airport under the epidemic
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In terms of expenditure, he pointed out that there has been a significant increase. Taking into account the counter-cyclical measures totaling more than $170 billion in the Budget at the beginning of the year, an estimated deficit of more than $56 billion has been recorded for the fiscal year, but this has not yet included the subsequent introduction, investment-related The 43 billion "2022 Job Support" plan and the sixth round of measures of the "Anti-epidemic Fund".
Chen Maobo said that it is expected to record a deficit of more than 100 billion yuan.
(Photo from Chen Maobo's blog)
Chen Maobo said that the economic outlook is still full of challenges, and the economic environment for the next few quarters is still grim.
However, he also pointed out that the current situation has stabilized slightly compared with the first half of the year. The unemployment rate has gradually dropped from a high of 5.4% this year from February to April to 4.3% from May to July; the total number of unemployed has also gradually dropped from 200,000 to 17%. Below 10,000 people, the momentum of improvement is expected to continue.
He continued to point out that the second phase of consumer coupons issued on October 1 will inject more than 15 billion yuan of consumption power into the consumer market, playing a boosting and multiplier effect, but the key to economic improvement is that the epidemic is more severe Under control, the convenience of cross-border travel will be the core of restoring economic momentum.
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