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Chen Maobo expects the deficit to exceed 100 billion this year, the fiscal reserve will drop to 800 billion, and stamp duty revenue will be greatly reduced

2022-09-18T04:01:29.529Z


Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said in his blog today (18th) that the financial situation this year will be worse than expected.


Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said in his blog today (18th) that the financial situation this year will be worse than expected, and it is estimated that this financial year will record a deficit of more than 100 billion yuan, much higher than the estimated 56.3 billion yuan in the budget at the beginning of this year. , will be the second-highest fiscal deficit in history, second only to the historical record of 232.5 billion yuan in the previous year, which also means that the government's fiscal reserves may further fall to the edge of 800 billion yuan.

The deficit would be even worse if the $35 billion in green bonds to be issued this year are not counted.


Unemployment expected to continue to improve

Chen Maobo pointed out that Hong Kong's economy is still affected by the repeated epidemics, but the situation has stabilized slightly compared with the first half of the year. The unemployment rate has gradually dropped from a high of 5.4% this year from February to April to 4.3% in May to July, and the total number of unemployed has also increased from The level of 200,000 has gradually dropped to below 170,000. The latest unemployment rate for June to August will be released this week, and it is expected that this improvement will be sustainable.

He mentioned that in a downturn in the economy, it can be expected that government revenue will not be as good as expected, but expenditure has risen. The fiscal situation this year will be worse than expected. It is estimated that the 2022-23 fiscal year will record a deficit of more than 100 billion yuan. Much higher than the $56.3 billion estimated in the Budget earlier this year.

He explained that while the epidemic hit the economy, central banks around the world vigorously tightened monetary policy, which seriously weakened the external economic momentum and also affected the local economic situation. With exports, private consumption and fixed investment all worse than expected and the operating environment difficult, Profits tax and salaries tax this financial year will be lower than estimated at the beginning of the year.

Chen Maobo pointed out that the property market is weak, and the land price income in the first five months of this year was 17.2 billion yuan, which is far from the budgeted income of 120 billion yuan for the whole year.

(file picture)

Stamp duty revenue about a third less than expected

In terms of stamp duty, the average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks from April to August this year was 117 billion yuan, 26% lower than the same period last year. The transaction volume of residential buildings in the first four months of this year also decreased by 37%.

Weakness in the stock and housing markets could cut stamp duty revenue this year by about a third less than expected.

Chen Maobo also pointed out that the current property market is weak, and the land price income in the first five months of this year is 17.2 billion yuan, which is far from the budgeted income of 120 billion yuan for the whole year.

Past experience shows that when the property price is lowered, the adjustment of the land price will be greater. In April, there was a drop in the bid for residential land, and when the economy is weak, the market demand for commercial land is also weak.

He pointed out that while revenue has decreased, expenditure has increased significantly. In the face of the impact of the epidemic and the pressure of economic downturn, the government has been implementing counter-cyclical measures. Taking into account the counter-cyclical measures totaling more than 170 billion yuan in the Budget at the beginning of the year, it has made This financial year is estimated to record a deficit of more than 56 billion yuan, but this figure does not include the "2022 Job Support" plan, which will cost 43 billion yuan, and the sixth round of measures of the "Anti-epidemic Fund".

Said that cross-border convenience is the core of economic recovery

Looking forward to the economic environment in the next few quarters, Chen Maobo pointed out that the second phase of consumer coupons issued on October 1 will inject more than 15 billion yuan of consumption power into the consumer market, but the key to economic improvement is that the epidemic is more controlled. , the convenience of cross-border travel is the core of restoring economic momentum.

Chen Maobo's officials congratulate Mid-Autumn Festival Mai Meijuan to cherish the people in front of him Liang Jiajie posted a poem to recall the past

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-09-18

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