Good news amid so much catastrophism: China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions — the world's largest emitter of this gas that causes climate change (in global figures, not
per capita
)—, fell by 8% in the second quarter of 2022. The data represents a reduction of 230 million tons of CO₂, the largest drop in at least a decade.
The decline is in part related to phenomena with little or no connection to the fight against climate change, such as the country's strict zero covid policy, liquidity shortages in the construction sector (which amounts to around a third of the Chinese economy) and low growth in electricity demand.
But the cut has also been influenced by the increase in energy from renewable technologies, according to a study published in September in
Carbon Brief
, a UK-based digital media specialized in climate policy.
The report, which is based on official figures and commercial data, shows that China's emissions have decreased in annual terms for four consecutive quarters.
And breaks down in detail the components of that fall.
Among others: "Oil consumption for transportation was significantly reduced due to covid control measures," says the article, signed by Lauri Myllyvirta, principal analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
In spring, with the arrival of the omicron variant in China, Beijing decreed the closure of megacities such as Shanghai, paralyzing movements and also the economy.
The confinement in this city lasted more than two months, and spread to other towns and provinces, causing, among other things, that the performance of oil refineries fell by 11% between April and June and contributing to a reduction in the demand for 5% gas, a "remarkable" snip, the report notes, "because the demand for this fuel has been increasing steadily since the beginning of the last decade."
While much of the world has decided to live with the virus, China remains the only one of the great powers that persists in the policy of keeping positive cases of coronavirus to zero,
In addition, the real estate crisis that shakes the Asian giant and keeps numerous works paralyzed caused an 18% drop in the production of steel and cement.
“Real estate construction starts and completions fell 44% and 33% in the second quarter, to the lowest level since 2009, as the sector's financial difficulties intensified,” the article states.
And the use of coal in energy production also fell by 6%, as a result of the slow growth in electricity consumption and the strong increase in generation using renewable technologies.
But it was only a mirage: it rebounded in the summer, when China faced the worst heat wave in six decades, causing a harsh drought in the southeast of the country.
The supply of water and hydroelectric power was interrupted, forcing the authorities to burn more coal to guarantee the supply of electricity.
This drought, the article suggests, could revive interest in non-renewable generation sources, such as coal and gas, whose supply does not run the same risk in the face of similar phenomena.
China aims, in any case, for a quarter of its energy consumption to come from non-fossil sources by 2030, according to the climate commitments presented by this country in October before the last UN climate summit in Glasgow.
By then, Beijing aims to have wind and solar capacity of 1,200 gigawatts, nearly double the figure at the end of 2021 (306 gigawatts of solar power capacity and 328 gigawatts of wind capacity, according to Reuters).
The country plans to achieve climate neutrality in 2060.
The second largest economy on the planet and the most populous country is also the largest investor in clean energy on the globe.
Its green bet reached 380,000 million dollars in 2021 (an amount almost equivalent to euros), followed by the European Union (260,000 million dollars) and the United States (215,000 million dollars), according to the International Energy Agency.
This organization also predicts Beijing's world leadership in the expansion of "renewable capacity" in its projections to 2026, with a contribution of 43% to the global growth of energy production through clean technologies;
that is to say: more than the US, the EU, India and the countries of Southeast Asia combined.
Coal is one of their Achilles heels in this race.
Despite the fact that Beijing has set that its consumption peak should be reached before 2030, in the first six months of this 2022 it has already granted permits to start up projects of this fuel equivalent to 21 gigawatts, the most since 2016, according to
Carbon .
Brief.
This apparently contradictory measure follows a usual logic of the country's government, says Christoph Nedopil Wang, director of the Center for Finance and Green Development at Fudan University in Shanghai: "China invests heavily in renewables, but also in coal", points out.
"Try to balance both things."
The recent heat wave is an example of the paradox, which this analyst usually attributes to the two faces of China, "the panda and the dragon", he calls it.
On the one hand, the extreme weather phenomenon, which has caused droughts, drained water reserves, damaged crops and caused power outages and rationing, is associated with climate change and is a call for the authorities to invest in green technologies;
on the other, supply cuts suggest that some renewable technologies, such as hydroelectricity, are not as reliable.
The result, summarizes the
Carbon Brief article:
"The response to these outages is likely to involve more coal power projects in central China and could pave the way for nuclear power projects in the interior, stalled for more than a decade."
The atomic bet is another of the tiles with which China projects the path to decarbonization: the country has 53 nuclear reactors in operation and another 23 under construction.
Since 2021, five new nuclear power units have been commissioned and the construction of another nine has begun, according to an article in the official
China Daily
newspaper on Friday .
By 2022, Beijing has given the green light to five projects, powered by 10 nuclear reactors, a record since 2011. Beijing plans to raise nuclear generating capacity from 51 gigawatts in 2020 to 70 gigawatts in 2025.
The Fudan University analyst also warns that the growing geopolitical tension could hinder the climate agenda.
In August, following a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Beijing responded angrily by pulling the People's Liberation Army out of the Formosa Strait and suspending collaboration with Washington on key issues, such as fighting against climate change.
Much of the reduction in global emissions, Nedopil Wang points out, has a lot to do with a rather routine dialogue, in which standards are agreed in fields such as green finance or electric car chargers.
That cooperation has been blown up and could mean "a step backwards in the negotiations" between the two powers.
