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"It creaks violently in the beams": military expert sees Putin facing major problems and believes in Ukraine's victory

2022-09-20T03:09:53.020Z


"It creaks violently in the beams": military expert sees Putin facing major problems and believes in Ukraine's victory Created: 2022-09-20 04:56 By: Marcus Mäckler Can Ukraine win the war? Expert Gustav Gressel affirms this in the Merkur interview. He sees Vladimir Putin under pressure. Munich – Six and a half months after the start of the Ukraine war, the wind has turned: Kyiv is pushing back


"It creaks violently in the beams": military expert sees Putin facing major problems and believes in Ukraine's victory

Created: 2022-09-20 04:56

By: Marcus Mäckler

Can Ukraine win the war?

Expert Gustav Gressel affirms this in the Merkur interview.

He sees Vladimir Putin under pressure.

Munich – Six and a half months after the start of the Ukraine war, the wind has turned: Kyiv is pushing back the Russian invaders.

Gustav Gressel, military expert at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, is optimistic: Vladimir Putin, he says, remains only one option.

Ukraine war: Expert Gustav Gressel explains Putin's situation - "There is a personnel problem"

Mr. Gressel, do you share the thesis that the Ukraine war has reached a turning point?

Absolutely.

Ukraine now has the initiative.

This is not yet a victory, but it is an important condition for achieving victory.

The question of when the initiative would pass from the Russians to the Ukrainians had been around for some time.

But now it went faster than expected. 

Is it conceivable that the Kremlin troops will regain the initiative?

I do not think so.

There has been a personnel problem on the Russian side for a long time: Ukraine is fighting with significantly more soldiers, the ratio is about 3 to 1. In return, the Russians have had more firepower, tanks and artillery.

But now two things have happened: First, the Ukrainians have long announced an offensive on Cherson in the south.

The Russians responded by moving troops to the north bank of the Dnieper River in defense – which Ukraine in turn used to destroy the bridges behind the enemy.

A ruse...

Tactically very smart.

20,000 to 30,000 men are cut off from supplies, including many paratroopers and elite units.

Part of the Russian artillery is also tied up there and cannot get out.

Secondly, the Ukrainians then used this weakness in personnel and material of the Russians for the offensive in north-eastern Kharkiv.

Russia: Putin opponents are being subjected to repression, but want to remain steadfast.

(Archive image) © Uncredited/dpa

Ukraine has the initiative: "If nothing grossly unforeseen happens, she will win this war"

Which was surprisingly successful.

Kiev's troops were able to regain much territory.

And greatly weaken the Russians.

We're talking about 5,000 POWs, possibly more.

Many others fled, leaving behind heavy equipment that is now in Ukrainian hands.

The Russian front in the east is now so thin that it is difficult to defend.

The Russians are only partially defensive.

There are also no operational reserves in the hinterland.

Ukraine needs to take advantage now and needs continued support from the West.

Barring anything grossly unforeseen, I'd say she's winning this war.

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How could the Russians allow themselves to be so outwitted?

The offensive in the northeast was very well prepared.

Interestingly, Russian war bloggers warned about this early on, but the military leadership didn't draw the right conclusions from it.

It's possible that the reconnaissance was very incomplete and you didn't notice the whole deployment.

But it could also be that the chain of command simply overslept.

What role did Western weapons play?

A big.

The German Gepard tanks, for example, of which the Ukrainians have 12 to 15, really close a capability gap in the military.

It's all-terrain, has good anti-fragmentation, and strong, repeatable firepower that's particularly useful against Russian scout drones.

It's a good system and the Ukrainians quickly learned how to use it.

Ukraine war before the turn?

"Then the soldiers make off"

Berlin is reluctant to deliver more, such as Marder tanks.

Would you help Ukraine in the current situation?

Of course they would help.

Armored transport of infantry is an important issue for Ukraine.

The marten can do that and it is also so safe that it can also be used on the front line.

In general, every replacement of material is important for Kiev's troops.

Germany should deliver.

How powerful are Moscow's troops?

The army is in very bad shape.

Many forces are simply exhausted.

There are no rotations, they have little free time, which is an enormous psychological burden.

Over time you get tired.

That is part of the explanation for the rapid collapse.

In addition, the motivation is different.

When I'm defending my own country, I fight differently than when I'm an occupier and therefore not welcome.

And then there's the military leadership... 

... which is often criticized as weak...

The Russian commanders always follow the situation, they make decisions far too slowly.

This has been the case throughout the war, from the battle for Kyiv to the current offensive.

The Ukrainian officers are better than the Russians, they are more flexible, faster, more aggressive and use their chances better.

When the front is no longer static, as it is now, but is moving, that is what counts. The cumbersome Russian chain of command is enormously ineffective.

When the soldiers see that their commanders cannot cope with the situation, people flee. 

Putin has a problem: "It creaks violently in the beams"

The pressure from the weekend is just out.

What is Ukraine's next step?

At the moment she is busy supplying, reorganizing and refueling the forces that have recently penetrated every possible gap.

That takes a while.

On the other hand, we are already seeing new fighting in the south of Kharkiv, including heavy partisan activity behind the Russians on the Oskil, a river in eastern Kharkiv.

It is difficult to say whether these are systematic attacks, where exactly the Ukrainians stand. 

Kiev's ultimate goal is to reconquer Donbass and Crimea.

Until recently, that was unthinkable.

And now?

That depends very much on how Ukraine proceeds.

But it doesn't look bad, I think the Donbass is quite possible now.

If another attack came, the old contact line from 2014 would be the last stable position that the Russians could retreat to, and which could be defended well even with few troops.

Then the Ukrainians would have to consider whether they want to take the risk of high losses and many deaths in order to take this line.

If I look at the mood right now, I would say yes.

But it won't be easy.

The bad news is also reaching Russia, and criticism is growing.

Is that noise or is there a growing danger for Vladimir Putin?

Lost wars in Russia have always harbored the danger of revolutionary upheavals.

It's certainly not that far yet, but the woodwork is creaking violently.

Even before this war there was dissatisfaction with Putin, above all because of his inability to organize a successor for himself.

He has sidelined all capable people, those around him - Sergej Shoigu or Dmitry Medvedev - are not accepted in Russia because everyone knows that they are Punch and Judy.

Putin thought that with a quick victory and the restoration of the Soviet empire, he could preserve his power.

Now the pressure is increasing and there is a basic mood in the country that something has to change.

But how fast that will happen is another question.

Ukraine War: Military Expert Gustav Gressel Explains Putin's Last Options

But isn't a pressured Putin particularly unpredictable?

Some fear that he could use tactical, i.e. small, nuclear weapons...

I think that's relatively unlikely.

A tactical nuclear weapon would change little at the front, if only because the Ukrainian military is relatively decentralized.

Putin wouldn't have stopped the recent Kharkiv offensive with a nuclear weapon, it would have taken ten or twenty such bombs.

But the reactions to something like that would be devastating, including in India, China and other pro-Moscow states. 

Only the general mobilization remains...

There is now a time window for this, which is why the army leadership is pushing for it.

But Putin is a secret service agent, not a general - he always sees the domestic political risk first.

And sending large sections of the urban elite to war would be a huge risk.

In order to still have a chance of defeating Ukraine, it would need about one and a half million additional soldiers.

Putin only gets that if he mobilizes completely and recruits reservists.

But they would have to be trained first and the Ukrainians could prepare themselves in the meantime.

Mobilization is therefore not an option at the push of a button, it involves great risks.

So what's left for him?

He might try to sell defeat as victory and say something like: We stopped Ukraine's nuclear weapons program.

In his view, this is the most likely option.

Would you oracle?

When will this war end?

This year will be difficult.

Some Ukrainian military officials rumor that it could be as late as March.

The conditions for that would be there.

If you look back at how grandiose the Russians' imperial ambitions were, you have to say that what the Ukrainians have achieved is the greatest gain for European security since Schabowski accidentally opened the wall.

We can't count ourselves lucky enough that the Ukrainians did so well and bravely.

Interview: Marcus Maeckler

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-09-20

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