Is Putin calculable?

CDU man and historian agree on "Anne Will" – "Often takes a step back"

Created: 2022-09-20 05:06

Is the war in Ukraine at a turning point?

And what about the threats from Kremlin chief Putin?

Voices from the ARD talk.

Berlin – Germany's position on the delivery of military aid to Kyiv has been controversial not only abroad since the beginning of the war.

In Germany, too, opinions are divided on the question: is caution and restraint still the right tactic in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with many thousands of dead and injured?

In her talk and in view of the successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in recent days, Anne Will puts the current situation in order.

The talk show at “Anne Will” on September 18th, 2022.

© NDR/Wolfgang Borrs

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who joined Will for the first 15 minutes, never tires of emphasizing that Germany still doesn't want to go it alone.

In the interview with the moderator, "together" is Baerbock's most common word.

"That's why it's so important for us that we can only take this step together with our international partners," she says.

Instead of direct main battle tank deliveries, Baerbock continues to prioritize the "ring swap" of weapons material and emphasizes the complexity of state-of-the-art weapon systems, admitting not understanding their functionality itself.

"A delivery alone doesn't make a difference," said the minister, "the entire logistics chain behind it has to work." She doesn't want to completely rule out the delivery of the highly technical tanks from the Leopard series in particular , she puts it at the end of the switch.

Ex-General Egon Ramms points out that the ring exchange model is finite.

It is true that it has recently been possible to "dig up" Soviet-style tanks "somewhere in Greece".

But at some point there won't be any more.

Ramms does not accept that modern technology was the reason for the refusal to deliver tanks.

The systems that have already been delivered are much more complicated to operate than those that are now being discussed, said the retired general

"Anne Will" - these guests discussed with:

• Annalena Baerbock (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen)

  - Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, connected

• Michael Müller (SPD) -

  MdB, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee

• Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU) -

  MdB, Colonel aD

• Egon Ramms -

  former Supreme Commander NATO Allied Joint Force Command

• Anne Applebaum -

  American-Polish historian and publicist, connected

But MP Michael Müller, who is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and represents the SPD camp in the talks

staunchly defends the policies of Chancellor Olaf Scholz - a convinced pacifist in his early political years.

Müller makes it clear that despite the current recaptures by the Ukrainian army, no turnaround in German foreign policy is to be expected.

Müller announces that he will "continue the deliberative course of the last six months."

US expert Applebaum criticizes Germany's lack of leadership in the "Will" talk

The fact that Germany is insisting on the "common" path instead of taking the lead and making itself dependent on the decisions of other countries, above all the USA, is met with incomprehension by the historian and publicist Anne Applebaum: "US President Biden said clearly that that each country could sovereignly decide on deliveries".

According to the expert, it is also surprising that the German government allows itself to be intimidated by Putin's "language of terror".

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Instead, according to Applebaum, Germany should listen to the “Ukrainians who know best how to wage this war”.

"Only when Putin is convinced that the western alliance is stable and continues to supply weapons will he stop waging this war," Applebaum is certain.

In Russia there is already a fear “that this war could be lost”.

A withdrawal from the conquered areas was "not something the Russians ever expected".

Müller explains to Will where the government's focus on the Ukraine question lies: "Missiles and tanks will never be able to replace diplomacy and foreign policy in the long run!".

The SPD politician makes it clear that it is about "winning allies" in order to set "further diplomatic initiatives" in motion: "Those who did not vote against Putin in the UN General Assembly" should now be looked at whether "there might be mediation opportunities through third parties" to strengthen the diplomatic front against Putin.

Müller speaks of "mediation platforms" with which one can achieve this goal.

The looks of the other guests speak volumes: there is no sign of enthusiasm here.

CDU man Kieswetter calls for committed support: put an end to the murders!

The former colonel and CDU member of parliament Roderich Kiesewetter, like Müller a member of the foreign affairs committee, demonstrates his expertise in "Anne Will" and scores points in the discussion against Müller, who obviously seems uninformed about military affairs.

Kiesewetter quotes the Chancellor who, at a special meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, warned of a “terrible escalation” with regard to the delivery of the Marder infantry fighting vehicle, but also denied the question of a concrete threat to Germany or himself.

According to Kiesewetter, the marten is not modern technology, but 40 to 50 years old in terms of the technical standard.

Kiesewetter also points to the fact that Germany used its customs sovereignty to prevent Spanish tank deliveries to the Ukraine and calls for dedicated action in the war zone to prevent the "murder, the destruction of the Ukrainian language, the kidnapping of children to bring an end to it."

Annalena Baerbock (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) - Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, connected to "Anne Will".

© NDR/Wolfgang Borrs

Even Anne Will does not seem to be entirely logical about the government's course and she asks Müller directly: "What does the chancellor fear if Germany goes ahead with the delivery?" Scaredy-cats” but later admits elsewhere that he would find it “questionable” if a German politician said “he’s not afraid of escalation”.

"Prudence is part of being a leader," says Müller.

Ramms disagrees: Putin sees Germany's actions as a weakness that he uses to split the Western alliance.

Kiesewetter also views the situation from a completely different perspective than Müller.

The war has "already escalated," he points out.

And analyzes that Putin only knows how to cater to “typical German fear”.

American-Polish historian and publicist Anne Applebaum agrees: Putin is playing tactically.

The possibility of using chemical and nuclear weapons has been in the air since the beginning of the war, but Putin has not resorted to these means despite the Scandinavian countries joining NATO and the delivery of western weapons.

The expert sees the Russian ruler as calculable: "We know from Putin that - if his back is against the wall - he withdraws." Putin, Applebaum continues, "takes as much as he can".

But when he's "pushed in the other direction, he often takes a step back," says the American.

Conclusion of the "Anne Will" talk

The debate still does not seem to have progressed further.

Or to put it another way: the course of the federal government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set.

The question is more: does the topic have explosive power for a serious dispute within the traffic light?

This is not (yet) evident.

Baerbock was loyal to Will Kanzler.