Following last month's visit to Taiwan that stirred up tensions across the Taiwan Strait, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi once again bypassed the US State Department on September 18 and took the initiative to intervene in US diplomacy as the US "third plastic chair". Armenia, which recently fought with Azerbaijan with nearly 200 dead.
Pelosi's support for Armenia is far higher than that of the US State Department. During her visit, she strongly condemned Azerbaijan's "illegal and deadly attacks", saying that people must recognize the fact that the exchange of fire was caused by Azerbaijan, and put Armenia and Azerbaijan's The conflict escalated to the level of a "battle of democracy and dictatorship".
Abandoned by Russia?
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have revolved around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, inhabited by Armenian Christians and sovereignly belonging to Azerbaijan.
Six weeks of fighting between the two sides in 2020 left more than 6,000 dead and Armenia lost control of most of the Naqqa region.
Russia was the last to intervene in peacekeeping.
But last week, the fighting resumed. 135 Armenians and 77 Azerbaijanis were killed. The two sides entered into a ceasefire after two days of fighting, and they kept accusing each other that the fighting was caused by the other side.
In the conflict between Asia and Afghanistan, both sides rely on the support of major powers in the region behind them.
Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Organization (CSTO) and has Russian military bases in the country.
In 2013, when it almost negotiated a free trade agreement with the EU, Armenia's decision to join the "Eurasian Economic Union" (EAEU) was seen as a clear choice between Europe and Russia.
Although the Armenian Revolution in 2018 overthrew the original government, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan who came to power is still pro-Russian.
In contrast, Azerbaijan relies on Turkey, which is closely connected culturally and religiously. The Naqqa conflict in 2020 has become the best “battlefield advertisement” for Turkish drones.
Pelosi meets Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan.
(AP)
However, as Russia's relationship with Turkey has grown closer, the fact that Armenia is a member of the Russian camp has become less and less an effective guarantee for its national security.
During the Naqqa War in 2020, the Russian-led CSTO has provided no military assistance to Armenia, believing that the war will only occur in the Naqqa region, which theoretically belongs to Azerbaijan.
In the end, only after Armenia's failures, the Russian army intervened in peacekeeping.
However, Armenia had lost control of a large area of Naka land at that time; Pashinyan was later accused of losing his power and humiliating the country. Under the demonstrations and protests, he finally had to resign for an early election, and finally managed to save the prime minister.
The latest war is different from 2020.
At that time, the Naka region was in dispute, but today's conflict is obviously Azerbaijan's military pressure on Armenia, hoping to force the latter to make concessions in the peace talks between the two sides.
In addition to the sovereignty of the Naka region, a major point of the dispute between the two sides is that Azerbaijan requires Armenia to "truly cede" its southern border area with Iran, so that Azerbaijan and its enclave Nakhchivan can pass through Armenia Territories establish land transport links.
According to multiple sources, the main point of fire this time is no longer in the Naka region, but in Armenia.
Pashinyan said on the day of the ceasefire that Armenia lost 10 square cents of territory after the exchange of fire.
This situation, which is different from 2020, allows Pashinyan to ask the CSTO to intervene more confidently.
However, Russia is still indifferent to this, and is only willing to send personnel to conduct fact-finding. The foreign minister of Kazakh, another member of the CSTO, has publicly stated that he will not send peacekeeping troops to Armenia.
The battle map released by "Naka Observer".
(Twitter @NKobserver)
All-round Azerbaijan
Under the weight of the war in Ukraine, in addition to Russia taking care of Armenia, the Putin authorities also intend to actively improve relations with Azerbaijan.
Just two days before Russia entered Ukraine, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Putin in Moscow, and the two sides signed a broad cooperation agreement, including claiming that the two sides have common or similar positions on hot international issues, avoiding any Actions that either party believes will undermine the partnership between the two parties, and promises not to do any economic activities that directly or indirectly damage the interests of either party.
Aliyev said at the time that the relationship between Russia and Afghanistan had risen to the level of an alliance.
In the future, this situation may make Azerbaijan "not the right person" when the interests of Russia and Turkey are at odds.
At the SCO summit that just passed, people even saw the scene of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Aliyev, Putin and other people talking happily, and the exchange of fire between Asia and Afghanistan had just been suspended.
In addition to improving relations with Russia, Azerbaijan is on the one hand increasing its natural gas output to the EU, making it an indispensable non-Russian alternative source of natural gas for Europe, and on the other hand helping to maintain neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict Kazakhs bypass the Russian pipeline to export oil.
It can be said that in the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan has put itself on the friendly list of major forces.
Earlier today. Just a few dictators hanging out… Erdogan and Aliyev, enjoying the company of Putin and Lukashenko. But, don't forget, the problem is that Armenia is Russia's ally… pic.twitter.com/C3KnKSjjC8
— Diogo Pinto (@joaodiogopinto) September 15, 2022
In contrast, Armenia is surrounded by Turkey and Azerbaijan on the left and right, respectively. Russia has no intention of helping, and Iran’s support only stays in politics. Georgia is even more difficult to protect itself. The EU is getting closer and closer to Azerbaijan due to energy needs.
Armenia in this situation has probably become an orphan in the Caucasus, which is more embarrassing than Georgia, which has already started the process of joining the European Union.
Pelosi's visit at this moment, for Armenians, symbolizes a timely rain from the United States.
Pelosi is the most senior U.S. official to visit Armenia since independence from the Soviet Union.
During the visit, thousands of people gathered in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, tore down the portrait of Putin and chanted Pelosi's name.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan also expressed gratitude for the clear stance from the United States after meeting Pelosi.
During Pelosi's visit, large crowds gathered on the streets of Yerevan to show their support.
(AP)
However, like Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the diplomatic activities of congressional leaders are symbolic rather than practical.
Pelosi herself said that when it comes to defense, "instead of coming here and telling people what we're going to do, we're listening to what (Armenia's) needs are."
In other words, the US has no intention of doing anything to support Armenia.
Judging from the fact that Pelosi's trip was almost accompanied by lawmakers who "have a soft spot" for Armenia issues, there is still a long way to go before Congress's focus on Armenia is turned into actual policy.
Unlike Taiwan, which is extremely important in geopolitics and high-tech industrial chains, Armenia does not currently offer the United States any benefits, so initiatives like the Taiwan Policy Act are completely inapplicable to Armenia.
Armenia after Pelosi's visit, like before her visit, can only find a way to accept the political reality that there is no way to turn to Azerbaijan's military pressure.
The Naka conflict has been suspended: Ukraine lost the battlefield and countries under the Russian umbrella are eager to move. Russia denounced the Azerbaijani military for violating the ceasefire agreement in the Naka region. Why did China and Russia "disagree" after President Naka asked Putin for the SCO summit?
Will the "Taiwan Policy Act" become "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan 2.0" through the Senate committee?