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Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in the Kremlin: Attempt to seize the initiative again
Photo: IMAGO/Pavel Bednyakov / IMAGO/ITAR-TASS
The citizens of Russia eagerly awaited an appearance by their President this Tuesday evening.
Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin had promised, would make a "declaration" on the news that had been circulating hours earlier - that immediate pseudo-votes would be held in Moscow-controlled areas of Ukraine on union with Russia .
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may also appear.
The Russians have waited in vain.
But in fact: there would be a lot to explain.
One thing is clear: two weeks after the Russian army had to accept significant losses of territory in northern Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has apparently drawn the consequences of the defeat.
And the consequence is: It escalates.
Putin has seized the initiative again, and in two ways.
Not only did he surprise his neighbors, he also took his own people by surprise.
On the one hand, he wants to annex four occupied regions in Ukraine in an expedited procedure, using fake referendums.
On the other hand, he is preparing at least a partial mobilization.
To this end, Russia's parliament pressed through appropriate legislative changes, also on Tuesday, in an urgent procedure.
Both steps belong together.
They are, each in their own way, warnings to Germany and abroad.
Postponed appointments
As for the pseudo-votes, the idea has been in the air for a long time.
Just as the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was annexed after a “referendum” in 2014, corresponding “votes” were repeatedly discussed in the Donbass.
Only: The dates that were mentioned were repeatedly postponed: First there was talk of summer because of rumors, then of mid-September, and most recently of November 4th.
The reasons for the postponements were Russia's military difficulties: Contrary to what was originally expected, Moscow does not even fully control the Donbass six months after the attack on Ukraine.
Now, of all things, after a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive and severe Russian territorial losses, things are suddenly supposed to happen surprisingly quickly: As early as Friday, the people in the self-proclaimed "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk are to vote on joining the Russian Federation.
Immediate sham votes were also announced in the Zaporizhia and Cherson regions occupied by Moscow.
"Come Forever"
This puts the Russian leadership on the offensive.
After the severe setback in north-eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin wants to demonstrate its strength and prevent its power in Ukraine from crumbling.
Because the Ukrainian offensive has not only shifted the front.
It raised the question for the population in the occupied territories of how loyal they should be to the occupiers.
Whether Russia came to them "forever," as Moscow had promised, is increasingly in doubt.
After the successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv, thousands of disappointed people who had backed Russia had to flee.
While the "referendum" in Crimea in 2015 was highly controversial, the planned referendums in the occupied Donbass are downright bizarre.
Because voting is done on territories that are either contested or not under Moscow's control at all.
Of the four areas in question, only the "Luhansk People's Republic" is largely in Russian hands - and that too could change if Ukrainian troops advance further.
Talking about nuclear war
By holding such »referendums«, Vladimir Putin is looking for a new escalation in order to be able to stop the advancing Ukrainian troops.
After all, once the areas in Ukraine are declared part of Russia, Moscow's logic is that Ukrainian troops would directly attack Russian territory.
Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya speaks of an “absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West.
Either Ukraine withdraws or there will be a nuclear war.”
"This week is the gateway to our imminent victory, or to a nuclear war," wrote Margarita Simonian, head of the propaganda channel RT.
Finally, Russia's hands are "no longer tied" in the fight against the West.
No dissenting votes
On the same Tuesday that the self-proclaimed "people's republics" in Donbass announced their pseudo-votes, something strange happened in Russia's lower house, the Duma.
In a kind of cloak-and-dagger parliamentary operation, an already existing draft law on reduced penalties was repurposed in order to prepare for military mobilization and to deter potential deserters and those who would refuse to obey orders in the Russian army.
Amendments to the Penal Code were passed in less than two hours without discussion, dissenting votes or abstentions.
Now there is about the new criminal offense »voluntary arrest«.
Removal from the military unit and disobeying orders will be penalized more heavily.
In the list of aggravating circumstances, times of »mobilization« are explicitly listed for the first time.
Not enough staff
While the pseudo-referendums in the Donbass and other occupied areas of Ukraine are a warning to foreign countries, this tightening of criminal law is a warning to our own society.
Until now, Putin had always insisted that the "special military operation" in Ukraine should only be conducted by professional or temporary soldiers and volunteers and that no one would be forced to take part.
Instead of calling up Russian conscripts, alternative solutions were used - for example by recruiting prisoners or forcibly mobilizing residents of the Ukrainian Donbass.
But Russia's failures have apparently caused a rethink.
It has long been evident that there is a lack of staff or that they are running away.
Many contract soldiers (»Kontraktniki«) refused to be deployed in Ukraine and asked to be released.
So far, they could only be prosecuted with disciplinary sanctions.
Now the exit from the army service is more difficult.
"The law serves to intimidate," says a Moscow lawyer who campaigns for the rights of conscientious objectors.
It is still unlikely that Putin will order a general mobilization.
It is true that he needs more personnel against the numerically strong army in Ukraine, where mobilization has long been announced.
And nationalist circles in particular have long wanted him to adopt a tougher approach.
On the other hand, the political costs are high.
Many Russians support the war only as long as it takes place on television and does not require any specific victims of their own.
Putin knows that. A partial mobilization - which would only affect certain regions or certain categories of reservists - is considered more likely.
Many Russians would have known more about this on Tuesday evening.
Now they have to wait a bit for the statements by Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu.
