Are the separatist republics panicking in the face of the advance of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
Monday, September 19, the leaders of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk urgently called for the organization of a referendum of attachment to Russia.
The head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, Denis Pushilin, has called on his Luhansk counterpart, Leonid Passechnik, for joint action in this direction.
"
I think we have to prepare some things together, that some of our actions have to be synchronized: I propose that we combine the efforts of our respective administrations and parliaments to start solving the problems of preparing for a referendum
," he explains. he in a largely staged video.
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On Tuesday, the Vice-President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev in person, supported the organization of these referendums on Telegram, considering that they were “
essential
”.
The date of November 4 would have been set by Donetsk, as reported by Paul Gogo, correspondent in Moscow for several French media.
A highly symbolic date, since it corresponds in Russia to the day of National Unity, which commemorates a popular revolt of the 17th century which expelled the Polish occupying forces from Moscow.
Ukraine is gaining ground in the East
The Kherson region, which has been heavily attacked since the beginning of September by Ukrainian troops, has also joined in this appeal.
On September 5, the Russian occupation administration announced that it was suspending preparations for an annexation referendum because of Ukrainian military movements in the region.
Read alsoHow the Ukrainians are pushing back the Russian army
This joint appeal could be a sign of general nervousness in these three regions, targets of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.
The kyiv army announced on Monday that it had regained control of a village just a few kilometers from the city of Lisichansk, a stronghold in the Luhansk oblast taken by the Russians in July.
“
There will be fighting for every centimeter
, warned on Telegram Sergueï Gaïdaï, governor of the province of Luhansk commissioned by Volodymyr Zelensky.
The enemy prepares his defence.
So we're not just going to just walk in
."
Protection and legitimacy
Primary objectives of the Russian "
special military operation
", the separatist provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk are not entirely controlled by Kremlin troops.
A referendum in each of these provinces therefore promises to be undecided, at least if it is carried out in a democratic manner, which currently seems highly improbable.
But on the one hand it would allow Russia to legitimize the occupation of the area, by explaining to the international community that its inhabitants have voted for an attachment to the country.
On the other hand, it would grant the two self-proclaimed republics the special protection of Moscow: they would thus become an integral part of Russian territory, and any attack could be considered as an aggression against Russia itself.
Which could, possibly, trigger nuclear fire, since according to its doctrine, Russia "
reserves the right to use its nuclear arsenal (...) in the event of an aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons , since the very existence of the State would be threatened
”.
A disastrous option confirmed by Dmitri Medvedev.
“
The encroachment on the territory of Russia is a crime allowing us to use all our forces in self-defense
, warned the former president on his Telegram channel.
This is why these referendums are so feared by Kiev and the West, and this is why they must be carried out
”.
And to add: “
They will completely change the vector of development of Russia for decades.
(...) After the integration of these new territories into Russia, the geopolitical transformation of the world will become irreversible
”.
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