Benjamin Morel is a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas. He published
The Senate and its legitimacy, the institution interprets a constitutional role
, Paris: Dalloz, coll.
"Constitutional and Parliamentary Library", 2018.
LE FIGARO. - Could the recent Adrien Quatennens or Thomas Portes cases break the union of the left which was formed during the legislative elections?
Benjamin Morel. -
These cases do not call into question today the two main factors that hold the left within the Nupes.
The first is a strong demand for union in a substantial part of the electorate.
The last Ifop survey for
L'Humanité
on September 12, 2022 showed that the radicalism of the Nupes could worry 4 out of 10 left-wing voters, but for the rest, the strategy remains acclaimed, and the useful vote effect likely.
This leads to the second pillar which holds together the parties of the left…
In the event of dissolution, if the LFI candidates were to oppose those of the PC, the PS and the EELV, it is likely that the number of left-wing deputies would be reduced to a trickle and that many parties would no longer have the means, if only to form a group in the Assembly.
In the face of these fundamental political imperatives, conflicts are possible, but have their limits.
The weakening is paradoxically not so much that of Nupes as of LFI.
First, because Adrien Quatennens embodies a line within it, and he was undoubtedly one of those who can reassure an electorate more from the first historical left, in line with the 2012 campaigns and 2017 by Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Then, LFI seems weakened because beyond the feeling of a bloc, the ideological and personal differences that run through this party are deep.
The latter is only held by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but also for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
It is the charisma and political identity of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, built by several successive campaigns, not the apparatus, which makes the success of LFI.
However, this case marks the weakening of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Benjamin Morel
If he were to be replaced by Mathilde Panot, Clémentine Autain or Éric Coquerel, it is likely that the score in the presidential elections will not exceed one figure.
It is the charisma and the political identity of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, built by several successive campaigns, not the apparatus, which makes the success of LFI.
However, this affair marks the weakening of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has been marginalized by his own troops, and who no longer seems capable of imposing a line on the apparatus.
Can they drive away the urban electorate, particularly sensitive to societal issues, who had voted strongly for Nupes in the legislative elections?
It is rare for sex scandals to influence electoral behavior.
Even François Fillon in 2017, whose affair had nevertheless been the only audible campaign theme, scored more than honourably.
Voters who hate LFI will see their revulsion confirmed, those who support it will judge either that it is a police plot;
or that the affair made it possible to purge the party of a member whom they will have decided overnight to no longer love… More deeply, we are witnessing a new episode of this strange dance between politics and morality.
Becoming a paragon of virtue has never won voters, and denouncing the other camp's lack of virtue has never made it lose any... On the other hand, when one adopts this type of posture and one does not doesn't have an irreproachable behavior himself, a sword of Damocles swings above your head.
And even if we stick to a monastic ethic;
in a world where the slightest complaint, the slightest handrail, the slightest confession in Sandrine Rousseau's living room is worth a presumption of guilt… No father of virtue is immune to the purge.
With a relative majority, will Renaissance be quick to dispense with each of its deputies affected by a case?
However, Aurore Bergé's request to Adrien Quatennens to no longer appear in the Assembly will have emerged from her.
Benjamin Morel
It is amusing to see the opposition, such as Aurore Bergé, using this case and asking Adrien Quatennens to no longer appear in the Assembly.
With a relative majority, will Renaissance be quick to dispense with each of its deputies affected by a case?
However, these remarks will have come out to him as we exhume those of Adrien Quatennens today, and the machine will start again.
Adrien Quatennens seemed to be the designated successor to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Does this case mark the end of his political ambitions?
“One dies once in war and many times in politics
,” said Churchill.
It is objectively difficult to predict the political future of Adrien Quatennens.
What is certain is that its future seems difficult to envisage within the framework of Nupes and LFI as currently composed.
Then, it seems obvious that the longer this affair lasts, the more difficult it will be for him to overcome it.
The press release which was his was rather intelligent, because it gave hope that the affair would no longer be covered;
the same goes for the withdrawal of his partisan mandate.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon's tweet resulted in putting a coin back in the machine.
It remains to be seen how long the sequence will last.
Like François Ruffin, Adrien Quatennens seemed to want to defend a more secular left. With his withdrawal, does LFI definitively abandon the so-called "republican" line carried by Mélenchon in 2017?
This line is abused within LFI.
Ruffin is isolated;
outside, Roussel is taunted.
There remains Alexis Corbière, who can still embody the old Republican Jacobin line, but it is certain that, whatever Jean-Luc Mélenchon thinks in his heart of hearts, the composition of LFI and the orientation of its executives leave little doubt. hope for the return of a line from the great heritage of the first left.
Even if he wanted to, he is no longer sure today that Jean-Luc Mélenchon could repeat a campaign on the line that was his in 2017 without the camera kicking back.
As such, François Ruffin has undoubtedly understood the limits of LFI's electoral tactics, but the composition of the apparatus no longer allows for strategic reorientation.
