Energy expert expects gas prices to rise further

Created: 09/21/2022, 13:59

By: Inga Schoenfeldt

Energy economist Claudia Kemfert warns consumers, despite well-stocked storage facilities in Germany, to continue saving gas in order to get through the winter well.

In view of the rising gas costs as a result of the Ukraine war and the autumn that has just begun, many Germans are wondering what is in store for them.

The scientist Claudia Kemfert researches economic and energy issues and thinks there is no need to panic.

Expert Claudia Kemfert: No player benefits from gas prices

You are a scientist and work at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin.

Can you make a forecast of how gas prices will develop in the coming weeks and months?

Nobody knows at the moment how gas prices will develop because we are currently in a serious energy crisis - triggered by the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

Gas prices have risen sharply on the stock exchange.

At the moment they are falling again, but I think that the trend is that we have to assume that

gas prices will increase, and substantially so.

The economy is already noticing this, and

consumers are also noticing it with a time lag.

Who actually benefits from the high prices?

Actually, it is the gas companies who could benefit if they had low procurement costs.

This is not the case for most of them at the moment, because they have to buy additional gas on the market, which is expensive.

In this respect, there is also a need to massively help the corporations with tax money, so that this bridging can take place.

There are few beneficiaries at the moment, at least on the gas supply side.

Is there also a speculative factor behind these high prices?

Shouldn't the prices

be as high as they are at the moment?

The gas price is formed on the exchange, also based on market data.

Due to Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine and because Russia is massively restricting supply, we definitely have scarcity signals.

Prices react to this market.

I would say that this market data gives reason to justify these price jumps.

But we never know how high the percentage of speculation actually is because there is a lot of opacity.

A speculative instrument or interest in it cannot be excluded.

265627324.jpg © dpa/Kay Nietfeld

"Germany's gas storage facilities are quite full"

Germany has been trying for a long time now to get more gas from other countries to prepare for the winter.

What's the status at the moment?

As of now, Germany is quite well prepared for the coming months and has done a lot of things right.

Getting gas from different countries was the first thing that is important.

That has also been largely successful.

In winter, the floating liquefied gas terminals will be added, which will also supply us with liquefied gas from other countries.

Then the reservoirs are quite well filled, well above plan.

Savings are also being made, at least on the part of the economy.

Consumption has fallen here, but not yet in households.

I hope that comes, at least in winter.

All gas customers are in the same boat so that we can get through the winter well in the long term.

also read

Putin's gas plan about to end: Russia's blackmail is unlikely to work

Pension: These cohorts are allowed to retire before the age of 67

Is there still a risk that gas could be rationed?

Gas rationing is never out of the question, but I always warn against scaremongering.

We have to

prepare for all eventualities, no question about it, but with such statements we cause extreme panic among a large part of the population.

That's why I don't want to join.

What we can certainly say is that we still have to be very careful and do everything we can to further strengthen the supply side by trying to use less gas.

We are all part of the solution.

Interview: Inga Schoenfeldt