This morning the sting came out of the bag, and about a week after the Kremlin spokesman promised that there would be no conscription, the President of Russia gave a speech to the nation - and announced a partial conscription.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that about 300,000 reservists with relevant military professions will be recruited, with an emphasis on those with combat experience.
However, the recruitment order is worded so that it is possible to expand the scope.
Three reasons for the move
One thing can be certain: if it weren't for the acute need for manpower, Putin would not have dared to go for conscription.
why?
For three main reasons: one - the war has so far been something distant for the majority of Russian residents.
The second concerns the contract between the citizens of Russia and the Putinist regime.
According to this treaty, the regime provides them with a constant image of victory and a sense of greatness - while they refrain from interfering in politics.
And the third reason - historical experience: Russia's rulers have a very bad experience with conscription.
When one was announced in February 1917, the disgruntled armed men in Petrograd preferred to overthrow the Tsar rather than be sent on his behalf to be killed at the front.
Protests in Russia against the war
Russian forces in Ukraine, photo: Reuters
Beyond all these, one should ask what the effect of the recruitment will be.
Let's say that Russia does manage to get 300,000 soldiers on uniforms, what will they use to fight?
A few months ago, Russia began to take 70-year-old tanks out of storage.
Elementary equipment for soldiers is no longer being talked about.
And if these are not enough, significant infantry training is required that lasts at least two months. In other words, the tens of thousands of recruits have a pretty clear perspective: they may simply become cannon fodder, just as happened to the tens of thousands who have already met their deaths in the invasion.
A protester in Moscow after being arrested by Russian security forces during a demonstration against the war in Ukraine, photo: Reuters
Defense Minister Hugo.
A hint that the mobilization is required to protect territories that Russia still holds, photo: AP
What does all this mean?
Defense Minister Shoigu hinted in his words that the mobilization is required to protect the territories that Russia (still) holds, so it is clear that it is moving to the defensive, while the mobilization shows how weak it is now.
If a serious protest will indeed develop around the recruitment - it remains to be seen;
Meanwhile, it can be said that Putin took a small step to contain Ukraine, and a large step to undermine his regime.
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