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Putin escalates the war: Can the public investment in Russia and mobilization of 300,000 people to participate in the war reverse the war in Ukraine?

2022-09-21T09:21:20.149Z


Anticipation is being given to Russian President Vladimir Putin after Ukrainian forces recaptured swathes of land in northeastern Kharkiv earlier and seized a large number of weapons left by the Russian army's hasty retreat.


After Ukrainian troops recaptured swathes of land in northeastern Kharkiv earlier and seized a large number of weapons left by the Russian army in a hasty retreat, expectations were being raised about how Russian President Vladimir Putin would respond.


On September 20, the mystery was finally revealed in half: Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, now almost completely occupied by Russian forces, The pro-Russian leaders of each Ukrainian state have confirmed that they will hold a referendum on membership in Russia from the 23rd to the 27th.

The next morning, Putin also gave a timely televised speech, expressing his support for the four districts' public participation in Russia, announcing that Russia will immediately enter "partial mobilization", and it is expected that 300,000 reservists will be mobilized into the battlefield, and the Russian-Ukrainian war will soon enter another stage.


From rumor to fact

In the four regions of Ukraine partially occupied by Russia, voices of public investment in Russia have been heard in the past few months. It seems that the local pro-Russian forces put pressure on the Putin authority, but it has not been successful.

After Ukraine officially launched its counterattack against Kherson last month and repeated reports of a nuclear crisis at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, some pro-Russian leaders also said they would postpone the referendum.

In fact, this year's national voting day in Russia has just passed on September 11, and people are even more unanticipated that the pro-Russian leaders in these Ukrainian regions will suddenly launch a referendum.

But this time, the pro-Russian leaders' referendum announcement has clearly been approved by the Kremlin.

On the one hand, the Russian news agency Tass first reported on the 19th that the non-governmental organizations of the "Luhansk People's Republic" asked the local leaders to hold a referendum on joining Russia immediately.

Subsequently, the referendum initiative was followed by the pro-Russian leaders of the three regions of Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, and the same referendum schedule was announced at almost the same time.

And it seems that in order to escalate the current situation of "special military operations" in response to the future "occupation" of new Russian "territory" by the Ukrainian army, the Russian State Duma also quickly passed legislation on the 20th, strengthening "general mobilization, military law or war" During the period”, the criminal penalties are especially aimed at soldiers surrendering, looting, disobeying orders, fleeing, etc., as well as reservists not responding to mobilization orders, etc.

The Ukrainian army recaptured the key city of Izyum on the front line of Russian north-south land transport.

(AP)

In the early morning of Moscow time on the 21st, Putin delivered a televised speech, accusing the West of trying to weaken, divide and destroy Russia, declaring that the vast majority of the people in the Russian-controlled areas want to join Russia, expressing support for the four districts to go into Russia, and Re-emphasize the war goal of conquering the Udon Donbass.

For these four areas that are about to become Russian territory, Putin stated that "in order to ensure the safety of the people in the liberated areas and our people", "local mobilization" must be carried out, and at the same time stressed that the mobilization order only involves reserve soldiers, not ordinary civilians.

He also warned that "if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people" - the word "all" seems to include nuclear weapons.

Whether it is public investment in Russia or mobilization to escalate the war, now it has changed from rumors to facts.

Front-line troops not enough to mobilize for referendum

Previously, Russia was only conducting "special military operations" against Ukraine and had not yet escalated to the level of "general mobilization, military law or war", resulting in a shortage of front-line personnel: According to estimates from Ukraine and the United States, the total number of Russian troops after the war started to invest about There are 200,000 to 250,000 people, of which 70,000 to 80,000 have left the battlefield due to injury or death; one of the reasons for Russia's loss in Kharkov is also due to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson in the south, resulting in "Tiaohu Lishan". ", so that the main force of the Russian army was concentrated in the area of ​​Kherson.

Putin's "partial mobilization" is precisely to solve the difficulty of the shortage of front-line personnel.

A tank left behind by the withdrawal of Russian troops in Kharkiv.

(AP)

The Russian right wing of course applauds the decision to hold a referendum and local mobilization.

For example, after the announcement of the referendum, Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of Rossiya Segodnya, said that the referendum would be Russia's "instant victory" or the eve of a "nuclear war" - meaning, Russia's turning the four regions into territories is a "bet everything". If Ukraine and the West do not actively accept the fact that these Ukrainian regions have become Russian territories, they will risk going to NATO to start a full-scale war with Russia.

On the other hand, the response of the countries around the world to the "Four-regional mobilization into Russia" was almost unanimous, and there was also a scolding of local mobilization.

The Ukrainian side has already indicated that the referendum will not hinder the Ukrainian army's "liberation of its territory".

A few days ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has remained neutral, has said that Putin will return all Ukrainian territory.

And "referendum for self-determination" is also a political logic that China, which is facing the issue of Taiwan independence, cannot accept.

For these neutral countries, of course, whether or not Russia will increase its troops can only be seen on the wall.

Objectively speaking, the legitimacy of the referendum in these regions is not as good as that of the Crimea in 2014.

On the one hand, the pro-Russian forces in the four regions have not yet mastered the whole territory. Kherson in the south is being counterattacked. Zaporozhye, the capital of Zaporozhye Oblast, is still in the hands of Ukraine. Luhansk, which fell in early July, is now A small area has been recaptured by the Ukrainian army, and only 60% of the land in Donetsk is in the hands of the Russian army.

On the other hand, in the context of the massive exodus of indigenous residents due to the war, the ongoing war, and the extremely short preparation time for the referendum, the referendum is hardly representative.

But no matter how acceptable the referendum is, judging from its "partial mobilization" decision, Putin has decided to formally annex these Ukrainian regions, creating an established fact and using it as a stepping stone to escalate the war and increase the investment of troops.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the town of Izyum on September 14, during which he took a selfie with a police officer.

(AP)

Why not general mobilization?

However, there is still room for Putin's war to escalate at this moment.

In his speech, he emphasized that this mobilization is only "partial" and only affects people who have served in the military and have military expertise and related experience, not ordinary civilians.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also said that his preset mobilization figure of 300,000 people is only 1% of Russia's mobilizable number.

The reason why Putin emphasized this is "partial mobilization" is because the political risk of "general mobilization to participate in the war" is actually very high.

According to the observation of Russian political scientist Grigory Yudin, regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian people are divided into three factions, one is the radicals (15-25%) who enthusiastically support the war and support the general mobilization to start the war, and the other is the opposition that firmly opposes the war ( 20-25%), and the third is the average person (50-65%) who does not care about politics and does not concern himself or herself.

Since the start of the war, Putin's popularity has been high, and polls show that the majority of people support "special military operations", largely because of the verbal support of ordinary people.

But there is a premise for the support of ordinary people that the war does not affect their daily life of eating, drinking, and entertainment. When the Russian state media started the war propaganda machine, its ratings dropped significantly.

This kind of public sentiment is the reason why Putin has been reluctant to mobilize, and it also explains why since the war, Putin has emphasized the existential threat of the West to Russia on the one hand, and on the other hand, he has also promoted the life of the Russian people under the "special military operation". As usual (Putin cut the ribbon for Europe's tallest Ferris wheel in Moscow on the day of the Ukrainian Kharkov counteroffensive).

Facing the shortage of troops in the past few months, the Putin administration has relied on people to participate voluntarily, including recruiting volunteers with high bonuses in various places, and even using the private organization of the "Wagner Group" (Wagner Group) to recruit troops to prisons, etc.; and In the legislation of the Duma on the 20th, Russia also shortened the time for foreigners to join the army and obtain Russian citizenship.

In contrast, general mobilization or a formal declaration of war will seriously affect the lives of ordinary people in Russia.

This kind of impact on people's livelihood may, like the retirement age reform in 2018, cause Putin's popularity to plummet by nearly 30 percentage points.

In peacetime, such a reversal of public opinion can still be eased through policy concessions, but in wartime, the same degree of decline in public opinion may lead to political instability.

If Putin does announce a general mobilization or a formal war, it will be a desperate gamble, placing his personal political fortunes entirely on the success or failure of the Ukraine war.

At this moment, the upgrade from "special military operation" to "partial mobilization" rather than "general mobilization" or "official declaration of war" can be regarded as gradualism under Putin's pragmatic consideration, and he did not make a desperate attempt on the Ukraine battlefield.

The question is, can "partial mobilization" achieve the results Putin wants?

Different from the goals of "demilitarization" and "denazification" at the beginning of the war, Putin's recent military goals expressed at the SCO summit and his speech on the 21st seem to have changed to "recover the Donbass" (i.e. Lugan). Sk and Donetsk regions).

Before the fall of Kharkov, the Russian side had controlled the entire territory of Luhansk and was attacking about 40% of the Ukraine-controlled areas in Donetsk, but it has almost stagnated for two months.

After the fall of Kharkov, the Russian army lost the north-south land supply line connecting to Donetsk, and in the Luhansk area, it was even pushed forward by the Ukrainian army.

The war situation on the Kharkov and Luhansk fronts as of September 20.

The blue part in the picture is the land recaptured by the Ukrainian army.

(ISW)

In line with the fact that the Ukrainian army is counterattacking Kherson, the Russian army really has no troops to support the Donbas front line. Therefore, when other methods cannot significantly increase the number of troops in the short term, "local mobilization" is inevitable.

However, "partial mobilization" seems to be difficult to achieve immediate results.

Although the reservists with military experience are being mobilized at this moment, in order to become an effective army, retraining in response to the Ukrainian battlefield is necessary, and it is also necessary to take care of the needs of equipment reorganization and command system reorganization.

Therefore, the distance between the mobilization order and the effective release of the recruits on the battlefield is likely to be measured in months.

As Ukraine is about to enter a cold winter, Russia must now decide whether to rapidly speed up its attack in the midst of ice and snow, or to use the winter to slowly regroup and play the energy card with Europe, waiting for a large-scale advance in the coming year.

At the same time, the failure of the Russian side to take the Donbass quickly was not just due to a lack of personnel.

Russia has the absolute advantage of traditional artillery on the battlefield, but it has not been able to seize air superiority, and it has not been able to effectively counter the artillery of Western precision strikes.

At a time when the Russian army is increasing its troops to take on the challenge, if the West continues to supply Uzbekistan with a steady stream of armaments, it will still be difficult for the Russian side to drastically reverse the situation and quickly counterattack.

The effect of "local mobilization" is likely to stop at preventing the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive, and to restore the previous situation of the slow advance of the Russian army and the slow retreat of the Ukrainian army.

This is an extremely positive development for the now-depressing Russian military situation.

Putin's mobilization︱The number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers is compared to Russia. Nearly 6,000 soldiers died far lower than Western estimates Ukraine | Turkish President: Putin is willing to end the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-09-21

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