"Putin's reserve mobilization did not surprise anyone - and it is doubtful that it will succeed"

According to Arkady Mil-Man, former Israeli ambassador to Russia, Putin's biggest problem is the low morale at home towards the war.

"Motivation is very poor, although everyone in Russia expresses support for the war, and the vast majority - 80%, support the 'military operation'. But when it comes to tactical measures, the situation is completely different"

Tali Goldstein

09/21/2022

Wednesday, September 21, 2022, 3:19 p.m. Updated: Thursday, September 22, 2022, 5:30 a.m.

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Russian President Putin announced his support for referendums in separatist districts in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)

Russian President Vladimir Putin last night (Wednesday) ordered the first call-up of reserve troops since World War II and warned that Moscow may defend itself with its vast stockpile of ammunition if it is forced to face a nuclear threat from the West.

According to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, about 300,000 soldiers will be recruited out of two million reserve soldiers.

More than 1,000 citizens were arrested in protests against the draft, and many hurried to flee the country.

The speech was an attempt to reassert Putin's authority over an out-of-control war that has undermined his leadership at home and on the global stage.

It is also a way to recognize Russians who support the war but criticize the Kremlin for not devoting enough resources and manpower.

In response, Kiev and the West said that this is proof that the war is not going according to the Kremlin's plan.

The opposition in Russia called for demonstrations against the president following the dramatic announcement.

Imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny said the recruitment was a sign that Putin had failed in the criminal war.

"He (Putin) wants to smear hundreds of thousands of people with the blood he sheds," he said.

Groups in Russia opposed to the war in Ukraine called on people to take to the streets in protest against the draft.

"This means that thousands of Russian men - our fathers, brothers and husbands - will be ground in the meat grinder of war," said Vesna, an anti-war coalition.

"Now the war reaches every home and every family."

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The first speech to the nation since the invasion (Photo: Reuters)

The world was quick to condemn Putin's move at a time when the UN General Assembly is being held, which is also focused on the war in Ukraine. "The war is not being conducted according to the Russian scenario, and therefore Putin is required to make extremely unpopular decisions in order to recruit soldiers and limit the people's rights," he tweeted. Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolek.

The United States ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, said that "the mobilization of the reserves and the announcement of holding referendums in separatist territories in Ukraine in favor of annexation to Russia show Russian weakness and failure.

The United States will never recognize the Russian justification for the alleged annexation of Ukrainian territory," she tweeted, adding that "Ukraine is winning the war, and the international community is united.

Russia has become a global outcast."

British Foreign Secretary Gillian Keegan told "Sky News" that "Putin's words should be taken seriously because we are not the ones in control - I am not sure if he is in control. This is an escalation."

The Chancellor of Germany stated that this was a wrong and mistaken step by Putin.

The Polish government promised "to do everything we can with our allies, so that NATO's support for Ukraine is strengthened so that it can defend itself." Dutch Prime Minister William Ruto, however, said that "we have heard all these statements before.

I suggest you stay calm." Finland said it was monitoring the situation, while Lithuania announced it had increased its military alertness.

Pro-Russian citizens in the Donbass (Photo: Reuters, REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko/File Photo)

Even before Putin's belligerent speech, the war in Ukraine entered a dangerous phase for Putin.

The counterattack of the Ukrainian army in the east of the country was more successful than expected and Ukraine regained control of an area of ​​about 8,000 km previously occupied by Russia. The Russian army retreated quickly, soldiers fled, equipment, ammunition and many weapons were left behind due to the experience and fell into Ukrainian hands.

The surprise success of the Ukrainian military has raised concerns in Moscow and hastened plans by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region to hold referendums on annexation to the neighbor. Those referendums, seen in the West as fake, are expected to lead Moscow to declare that the entire Donbass region, such as Zaporizhia and Kherson in the south, is Part of sovereign Russia. The fact that the rest of the world won't recognize the annexation doesn't really matter to Putin.

For the Kremlin, annexation means that Ukraine is not fighting to liberate its territory, but, according to Russia, the aggressor using NATO-supplied weapons to threaten Russia. This is to feed Putin's narrative that extreme measures are now necessary to protect For the homeland against Ukraine's evil cabal and its allies in the West, the call-up of an estimated 300,000 reserve troops will not be the last step Putin will take to try and avoid a humiliating defeat.

On video: Fighting in the Donetsk region in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)

According to Arkady Mil-Man, head of the Russia program at INSS, and a former ambassador to Russia, what he said did not surprise those who closely follow what is happening in the war in Ukraine.

"It was clear that after the failures of the Russian army on the eastern front in Ukraine and the victories of the Ukrainian army in the counterattack, that the Russians would have to announce a general or partial mobilization. During the last two months, they have a shortage of personnel and SDF on the battlefield," he told Walla.

"The Russian government tried to recruit people , launched a propaganda operation all over Russia, appealed to everyone possible, but managed to recruit soldiers only through Wagner - a Russian military organization, sometimes described as a private military company - 6,000 prisoners, most of whom are serving long prison terms related to crimes, that is, not a particularly high-quality army," he added Mil-Man.

The main problem for Russia now, Mil-Man emphasized, is the low morale at home regarding the war: "In light of the failure to recruit manpower, it is not at all certain that 300,000 people will actually be recruited. The motivation is very low, even though everyone in Russia expresses support for the war, and the overwhelming majority - 80 % support the 'military operation' - but when it comes to tactical measures, the army has a problem. Even in areas that are in economic distress, there were difficulties in recruiting people for much higher salaries than they are currently earning."

Russian tanks in Donetsk (Photo: Reuters)

The second problem that arises as a result of the recruitment in question is that most of the reservists have not fought for a long time and need training.

According to Mil-Man, "It takes a long time to train those soldiers to fight on the front. Until now, they have received only a week's training and have been sent on. In addition, it is not clear whether the bureaucratic recruitment process will be conducted properly: how will the recruitment orders reach the right people, who will manage to evade or to be exempted from conscription, who will pay not to fight, and so on," he added.

Putin mentioned in his speech the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

Mil-Man believes that even if we witnessed irrational decisions by Putin and the Russian army during the war - and therefore we must take into account the scenario of using nuclear weapons - "the likelihood of this is low now, because everyone understands the meanings and consequences of a nuclear strike."

In the near term, following the speech, Mil-Man believes that the Russian army will manage to recruit 30-40 thousand people and after a short training, they will be sent to the front.

"In the next month or month and a half until the rains, snow and the infamous severe cold in the region, we will probably see an escalation in fighting and severe battles. During the frozen winter, both sides will take the opportunity to reorganize and if there is a relatively mild winter, in February-March the fighting will resume again," he said.

The war, according to Mil-Man, is not expected to end soon, and not because of the formidable Russian army, but because of the strong determination of the Ukrainians not to surrender and not to give up any territory in their homeland.

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