Prime Minister Yair Lapid's visit to the UN General Assembly was supposed to be the high point in the political election campaign of the one who sees himself as the leader of the center-left camp. This produced the campaign team aimed for. Lapid took pictures with soldiers, met with leaders, threatened Nasrallah , attributed the delay in the nuclear agreement to his success, and everything is designed to converge on this moment when he will appear on the stage of the UN.
Lapid's point of reference at the beginning of the campaign was, of course, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Whether it was trying to imitate him, do the opposite of him or attack him, Netanyahu was and remains the catalyst.
The axis around which everything revolves.
Yesh Atid party campaign too.
And not only hers.
But as the campaign progressed, Lapid discovered that another player was clouding his plans.
The same Tardan also clouded his visit to the United Nations and stood in the background of his speech and meetings in New York, which were supposed to establish his leadership in the camp. However, while the right-wing camp has one leader, Lapid also had to contend with Benny Gantz, who insists on filling the country with signs crowning him as the next prime minister.
A coalition alternative does not exist.
Gantz,
Lapid was convinced that the numbers in the polls would speak for themselves.
That a player with a single digit number will not be able to claim the crown against the one who comes close to Netanyahu in the number of mandates.
But Gantz does not go down.
The connection with Gideon Sa'ar, and later with Gadi Eisenkot, did not yield success for the time being, but the message - Gantz has a higher chance of forming a coalition than Lapid - managed to get through.
The need for a stable government, without further elections, was identified as an important need among the parties.
Even in Likud they are running on the same message.
However, unlike the Likud, which if it obtains 61 mandates or more for the right-wing bloc will indeed be able to form a homogeneous and probably also stable government, Gantz is spreading promises without cover.
The truth is that he has no government.
Not stable and not at all.
The 61 that might be for the left, if not for the right, are not really at his disposal.
And despite the giant signs heralding Gantz as Prime Minister with Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, the ultra-Orthodox factions, Havoda and Meretz at his side, there is no such coalition in reality.
The paper can endure anything.
In the real world this is a fictional scenario.
Netanyahu will try in the coming weeks to disprove Gantz's non-existent coalition alternative, but Lapid is left with this message unanswered.
His condition is no better.
Gantz's delusional coalition is also his own only option.
Except for one change - Lapid is the prime minister of the transitional government.
If no government is formed and there are elections again, he will continue to be prime minister.
Unlike the last time, when Lapid could afford to stay small and make sure that all the parties of his bloc pass the percentage of the block, this time this privilege does not really exist.
There is little future, and a two-headed race on the left does not guarantee the transfer of the mandate to form a government to him if Netanyahu fails.
That is why he is caught.
He wants to grow, but not at the expense of Labor and Meretz, which may not pass, but at the expense of Gantz, who is not declining because he managed to convince that he has a coalition.
If he had managed to unite the work and Meretz, the job would have been much easier for Lapid.
But this attempt failed and if that wasn't enough, just before the closing of the lists the shared list also broke up.
Currently, Balad does not pass the percentage of blocking in all polls. It is even very far from it. The burning of votes it will bring with it is very bad news for Lapid, who together with other left-wing bodies made great efforts in an attempt to increase the voting rate among Israeli Arabs.
The dissolution of the joint venture will probably not lead to an increase in the number of participants in the elections among the Arab population.
On top of that, the withdrawal of Balad does not lead to the qualification of what remains of the joint venture - Hadash and Tal - as legitimate partners in the government. If Lapid wants to qualify them, he can do so with or without Balad, and with the full backing of all party leaders "just not Bibi", as well as the mainstream media.
Balad's withdrawal from the joint forces Lapid away from the 61, and this is a very negative development for his campaign.
So why doesn't Likud open champagne?
Because this is a reversible event.
It is conditional on Balad running to the end, and it is not at all certain that this will be the case. If at the last minute Balad decides to withdraw, its votes will be spread between the two remaining parties and no vote will be lost.
All Lapid needs to do to overcome the incident is to see to it that Balad retires. That will be enough to overcome the shame of the failure of the Labor-Meretz union and the failure to prevent the split of the joint venture.
In fact, the preparation of the hearts for partnership with the partner has already begun.
Despite the statement of Ofer Kasif and the problematic history of the leaders of the list Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi, even in the joint they realized, much later after Mansor Abbas, that there is a demand for the goods of the partnership with the Zionist government among the Arabs of Israel.
Of the four Arab parties, only one remains separatist and hostile.
This fact, by the way, can end up playing in her favor.
Sources in the Arab sector firmly claim that even though Balad is now very far from the blocking percentage, the possibility of a reversal should not be ruled out. Balad is getting stronger and eventually passing, while Hadash-Ta'al is collapsing.
They attribute the potential success not only to the separatist and militant approach, but also to the conquering leadership of the head of the party, MK Sami Abu Shahada.
The chairman of Balad is young, energetic and charismatic.
Exactly what the Arab public needs now, and exactly what the existing leadership in the Hadash-Ta'al and Ram are unable to provide. The approach of reconciliation and civil issues first is indeed in demand among the Arab public, but this niche has already been seized by Ram and Abbas.
On the other hand, Odeh and Tibi are only seen as imitations.
The crowd of believers (Levan Barak)
It is Lapid's desire to distinguish himself from Gantz and to seize a gap at any cost that has led to the estimations that a deliberate hand is behind the defamation of Likud on the party's website in Russian and behind Ram Ben Barak's distasteful and outrageous statement against the religious.
Apparently these are two unfortunate incidents.
In practice, there are those who firmly claim that they serve the Yesh Atid campaign with perfect accuracy.
The party's voters do not want bickering and foul language on the one hand, but on the other hand they certainly agree with the statement that Likud is a party of Sephardim, and also shy away from religion and tradition, just like Ben Barak.
The ability to say the things and then apologize and clarify, already looks like a method and not like a collection of mistakes.
These statements strengthen him.
Mainly against Benny Gantz.
And this, as mentioned, is the main goal of the campaign at this stage.
As much as Ben Barak's words about the television presenters and the head covering are seen as far-fetched and delusional, there are many who are indeed very afraid of religion, of religious women's head coverings in prime time and of a religious and religious messiah in the IDF and in the public sphere in general. Ben Barak also did not apologize for his words, and in his convoluted explanations It is quite evident in the media that he does believe what he said, that the scenario of religious people in the coalition passing a law that would force TV presenters to wear a head covering is very plausible for him.
This makes it clear that Lapid has given up trying to convince him that he has a coalition no less than that of Gantz, and is addressing his anti-religious voters directly, some of whom are unfortunately also anti-Mizrahi.
No sympathy from Netanyahu
Ayelet Shaked's forgiveness speech was delivered this week as part of the central message of the Jewish Home: Returning home, to the right.
Shaked apologized to those who were hurt by her joining a government that relies on Rem, but not for the move itself. Even now, after the forgiveness and regret, it is important for her to emphasize that in real time, and even a year later, she made the right decision to enter the government, to maintain it and prevent the her fall, as long as she existed.
Shaked knows that quite a few members of religious Zionism did not find a home in these elections and find an address in it.
At least half of them think she was wrong, but will be ready to put their trust in her again, and that's exactly who she turned to.
This is the audience where you will also want to focus the party's campaign in the coming weeks.
Massive advertising in the Shabbat bulletins and in the sector newspapers, and emphasizing the words Bayit Yehudi, Hampdal, as well as the ballot bearing the mythological letter B of the knitted caps.
But Shaked also knows that this audience has a glass ceiling.
Three mandates at most, and that too under pressure.
Even if you get them through strenuous and arduous work, where will you get the additional mandate she lacks to pass the blocking percentage?
At the moment there are more questions than answers.
Shaked will try with all her might to scoop up the three mandates, and after that she will puzzle over how to get the fourth mandate.
She would have been very happy, what is happy - happy - if Netanyahu had not gone over her head, but that is not the case.
Netanyahu does not believe that she is able to pass the blocking percentage, and every vote that goes to her is deducted directly from the right-wing bloc.
Added to the sediments of the past and a dynamic family that is pressing on the issue - the obvious conclusion is that Netanyahu will try to crush the Jewish home, without giving Shaked even the slightest opportunity to grow and perhaps pass and give the right the 61 mandates they need.
awful.
Tibi's sign covers an almond, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Shaked must broadcast that she ran to the end and stick to the belief that in the end she will pass.
If you blink or some report appears that she is considering retirement - the whole campaign will go down the drain in an instant.
The address is on the sign
Greg Roman founded the "Israeli Victory Project" organization with the goal of emphasizing that the Arab representatives in the Knesset do not recognize the State of Israel, and that no political solution, from the right or the left, can be advanced without the Arab recognition that the State of Israel is an existing fact.
In recent days, the organization has launched a large campaign, which includes billboards in several central locations, in which Ahmed Tibi is seen wearing the Israeli flag on his body and with a broad smile on his face.
"This is what the image of victory will look like," claims the sign in an attempt to convey the engraved message about the organization's goal.
As fate would have it, the new sign was hung in Jerusalem exactly where Ayelet Shaked had chosen to launch her homecoming campaign a week earlier.
In front of the hotel facing the central square of Begin road at the exit to Givat Shaul.
Shaked led the political crisis of the last three years, when she and Naftali Bennett founded the new right and overthrew the right-wing camp.
The Arab factions may now overthrow the left camp and give the right the victory.
One sign, two politicians, and one story.
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