The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Putin's tactical one-two punch: How the Kremlin wants to influence the war with the flash referendums

2022-09-22T11:27:48.286Z


Putin's tactical one-two punch: How the Kremlin wants to influence the war with the flash referendums Created: 09/22/2022, 13:17 By: Andreas Schmid Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has announced further military strikes against Ukraine. © Sergei Bobylev/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP/dpa The four referendums on Russia annexation could change the Ukraine war. Reactions to Putin's "Crimea Scenario" are cle


Putin's tactical one-two punch: How the Kremlin wants to influence the war with the flash referendums

Created: 09/22/2022, 13:17

By: Andreas Schmid

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has announced further military strikes against Ukraine.

© Sergei Bobylev/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP/dpa

The four referendums on Russia annexation could change the Ukraine war.

Reactions to Putin's "Crimea Scenario" are clear.

Moscow – Vladimir Putin is planning referendums in several Ukrainian regions.

The partly occupied Donbass regions of Luhansk and Donetsk are soon to belong to Russia, along with Cherson and Zaporizhia.

In September, the people are supposed to vote on an annexation by Russia - whereby the referendum will have nothing to do with free elections according to past experience.

The result is already certain.

Putin referendums in Ukraine: Four areas are to become Russian

It was known that Putin wants to hold referendums.

As early as in the case of the Crimean peninsula, a vote classified by the United Nations as contrary to international law served as a justification for the annexation - and marked a milestone in the escalation of the Ukraine conflict.

The Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief at RT (formerly: Russia Today), therefore also praised the referendums as a "Crimea scenario".

Experts have so far assumed that Putin's separatists and occupation administrations will only hold the new referendums once Russia has conquered the territories.

November 4, Russia's "Day of People's Unity," was considered a possible date for the vote.

However, since the Ukrainian counter-offensive does not look like a quick Russian control of the territory, Putin seems to have changed his plan.

The referendums will take place from September 23rd to 27th.

So it starts this Friday.

The referendums, supported by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass, are intended to detach the regions from Ukraine.

The referendums are not controlled internationally.

So Russia decides the outcome itself, which in 2014 was probably also influenced by the threat of armed force.

"If I put the gun to your head and ask: are you for it or against it?

Then I could imagine that you are in favor of it," said FDP defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann on Tuesday evening in the ARD talk "Maischberger".

It can be assumed that Russia will then declare the four affected regions to be its own territory, in violation of international law.

Although this would probably only be recognized by a few international states, it harbors a new explosiveness as the war progresses.

Russia fuels nuclear weapons fears: Medvedev speaks of "all methods of defense"

Should further hostilities take place in the post-annexation areas, Russia could argue that their state territory is being attacked.

Putin would thus have a reason for the war, which is still called "special operations" in Russia.

The recently announced general mobilization would also be easier.

"Putin's illegal annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory will broaden the domestic legal definition of 'Russian' territory under Russian law," writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Kremlin is also stoking fears of a further escalation: the use of nuclear weapons.

The Russian military doctrine provides for this only for the defense of its own country.

Russia's ex-president Dmitry Medvedev has already announced that Russia will be allowed to use "all methods of self-defense" after the annexation.

“The Kremlin probably intends to increase Ukrainian and world fears of a nuclear escalation with these vague warnings,” write the ISW military experts.

more on the subject

What if Putin loses?

This is how experts assess the danger of a nuclear strike

According to British military experts, the Kremlin wants to forestall a counterattack by Kyiv with the referenda.

This emerges from the daily intelligence update on the Ukraine war from the British Ministry of Defence.

"This rush is likely driven by fears of an imminent attack and greater security after formal incorporation into Russia," the statement said.

War in Ukraine: West condemns "sham referendums" - and does not want to accept them

The West - from Chancellor Olaf Scholz to US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron - spoke unanimously of "sham referendums".

It is "very, very clear that these sham referendums cannot be accepted," Scholz said on the fringes of the UN general debate in New York.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke of a "further escalation" of Putin.

The White House said the US would "never" recognize Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's territories.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) considers the referendums illegal.

"The results would therefore have no legal effect," emphasized the OSCE Chairman and Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has already threatened further sanctions against Russia.

Ukraine referendums: "Russian panic" - this is how Kyiv reacts to the new Putin plans

Putin must have expected this headwind.

The criticism from the West seems to have been taken into account.

According to several military experts, the threats of nuclear weapons are intended to put pressure on the West and also on Kyiv.

So far, Ukraine has reacted comparatively calmly to the developments.

 "Our position does not change with noise or any announcements," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the United Nations.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared the organization of the sham referendums a criminal offence.

Anyone who applies for a Russian passport faces up to 15 years in prison. "Any participation in the "referendums" is considered a violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity," Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podoliak wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening.

Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko described the sham referendums on ntv as a "manifestation of hysteria and panic over the defeats of Russian troops in Ukraine".

As a result, however, peace negotiations that are currently unforeseeable become even more unlikely.

"President Zelenskyy has emphasized several times: holding pseudo-referendums in occupied territory would mean that any negotiations with Russia are completely off the table."

(as)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-09-22

You may like

Trends 24h

News/Politics 2024-03-28T06:04:53.137Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.