The 5-Star Movement stands as the last bullet that can stop the Italian right

In 2013, nobody knew how to anticipate what was coming.

Nor in 2018 did analysts imagine the populist gale that would sweep away a political era in Italy.

In both elections, an anti-system party of a complex nature and a horizontal electorate broke the schemes of the polling experts and the rest of the political parties.

The 5 Star Movement (M5S), an artifact created by the comedian Beppe Grillo and Gianroberto Casaleggio, a visionary of digital communication, far exceeded the odds and won both elections.

The first time he did not want to govern.

The second, in 2018, assaulted the palaces of Rome and participated in all the executives of the legislature.

Today, when the extreme right is preparing to do the same, the formation led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has once again become the only hope to stop its rise.

The possibility is very remote, all the sources consulted indicate.

The current electoral law —known as Rosatellum (after its author, Ettore Rosato, a parliamentarian from the Democratic Party when it was drafted) and approved in 2017— is a mixture of a proportional and majority system with which 400 deputies and 200 senators are elected —it has there has been a recent reduction in parliamentarians which further complicates the issue.

Coalitions formed a priori are rewarded.

So the left, unable to give up its fights and form a grand alliance like the right, will be greatly weakened.

The absolute majority of the group formed by the Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia is almost taken for granted.

But if the M5S obtains a huge result in the south, as in the last elections, it could complicate the triumphal ride of Meloni and his associates.

The latest published polls, a little over a week ago, gave the

around 12%-13% support.

But there have been changes.

Meloni has made a manual error discrediting the Citizen Income and announcing its elimination.

This is the star measure of the M5S in the last legislature, an aid for the unemployed that has worked as a counterpoint to the poverty of the south and maintains all its strength as an electoral weapon.

Today 1.05 million households receive it in Italy, with an average amount of 581 euros (according to data from the Italian Social Security).

In some southern regions, such as Campania, it reaches up to 12% of families.

Many are now considering modifying their vote based on this issue.

But Meloni is reluctant to do so, despite the fact that part of the battle is happening there.

Roberto D'Alimonte, a political analyst and pollster, believes that the miracle (for the left) is still possible.

“If they reach 20% of the votes at the national level, it means that in southern areas they have 30% or 35%.

And with that figure the mechanism can jump so that single-member schools win by taking them away from the right

If we were surprised once again, it could put the possible absolute majority in crisis.

It is the only scenario that I see in which the right could suffer, ”he analyzes.

In that case, the right-wing coalition would be forced to form a pact with other parties, such as the centrist group led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and former Minister Enrico Calenda.

The hope for the progressive bloc is that the difficulties will sharpen the discrepancies between the three parties and thus create a deadlock situation that will force them to opt for a third way.

“Sergio Mattarella [the President of the Republic] could play an important role there,” say sources from the Democratic Party.

The company is complicated.

But for Nando Pagnoncelli, author of the

or channel 7 polls, there are three factors that explain the phenomenon.

“First the issues: Citizen Income and minimum wage.

The M5S gives the feeling of being on the side of people who are struggling to get by.

Secondly, the positioning: the party is today in the center-left and is fighting a lonely battle without entering into any coalition.

And that will favor him, especially in the south.

Third: the

Conte might not use Grillo's language, but he plays the people's lawyer.

In my opinion, the final result will not change, but the strength of each party and its size in Parliament will vary”, concludes Pagnoncelli.

The right is fully aware of the situation and has intensified its messages in southern Italy.

In fact, Meloni will close the campaign on Friday in Bagnoli, the Neapolitan working-class neighborhood where the highest percentage of families receive Citizen Income.

The strategy raises doubts in the party, since the subsidy is highly appreciated in those areas and every time the leader of the Brothers of Italy announces that they will eliminate it, she loses some votes.

But the difference with the other bloc in the rest of the country is so pronounced that trust in the party remains total.

05:36

This is Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far right who can govern Italy

Giorgia Meloni at an election campaign event, September 2022Photo: Bloomberg |

Video: EPV

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