Brazil elections on October 2nd: How Bolsonaro uses the military for his purposes

Created: 09/23/2022, 16:30

By: Lisa Kuner

Shake hands: Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro with soldiers at a military exercise in 2021. © Evaristo Sa/afp

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro is already casting doubts about the electoral system and wants to actively involve the military in the election process.

It is unclear whether the soldiers really support him.

Brazil – "If necessary, we will go to war," said Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in a speech a few months ago.

The Brazilian president's tone in the election campaign is aggressive.

Again and again he hints that he would not accept an election defeat.

The presidential elections in Brazil will take place on October 2nd.

If none of the candidates achieve a majority of more than 50 percent, there will be runoff elections on October 30th.

Favorites are incumbent, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and Social Democrat Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva from the Labor Party.

Both candidates polarize.

Lula is ahead in polls.

And Bolsonaro is doing everything to discredit his opponent.

The elections and their outcome will not only decide Brazil's future.

They are also a stress test for the stability of the world's fourth-largest democracy.

There is a risk that Bolsonaro will not leave office peacefully.

He counts on powerful supporters – including from the army.  

Brazil election: Bolsonaro's fairy tale of the unreliable electoral system

At the moment, the president is already busy sowing doubts about the elections and the reliability of the vote count.

Bolsonaro repeatedly claims that the electronic voting system is insecure, prone to errors and electoral fraud.

Electronic ballot boxes have been in use in Brazil since 1996.

On the whole, nothing indicates their unreliability.

On the contrary, various surveys this year concluded that the electoral system is safe and that there were no irregularities in past elections.

However, Bolsonaro's seed has long since germinated among the population.

Scientific studies show that the proportion of people in Brazil who distrust the electronic voting system has increased in recent months.

"With such claims, the President delegitimizes our electoral system and our democracy," says Carolina Botelho to the Munich newspaper IPPEN.MEDIA.

She is a political scientist and researcher at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro on elections and public opinion.

For a few months, there has also been support from powerful military figures for Bolsonaro's assumption of the electoral system.

For Botelho, the president's claims are an improper military intervention in politics.  

Bolsonaro's military past: possible involvement in the electoral process

Bolsonaro himself has a military background.

Before going into politics, he was a captain in the paratroopers.

It is undisputed that, among other things, the sympathies in the army helped him to win the 2018 election.

During his reign, Jair Bolsonaro never tired of emphasizing this connection - and involving those responsible.

"Many members of the army now have civilian posts in the government," explains Carolina Botelho.

This means that the Brazilian government and the military are closer than they have been since the military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985.

In the event of an election victory, Bolsonaro wants to make Walter Braga Netto his vice president.

The general has served as defense minister in recent years and is one of the president's closest confidants.

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Bolsonaro is currently trying to involve the army far more in the processes surrounding the election than usual.

For example, in April he proposed parallel counting of votes by the military.

"The current government is trying to use the soldiers for their purposes," explains political scientist Botelho.

"Bolsonaro wants to see the military in roles that it's not really intended for," she added.

This includes in particular the counting of the votes.

The constitution does not provide for any such influence on the part of the servicewomen and men.

The role of the military in elections is limited to providing logistical support and preventing potential conflicts.

Reactions to these statements from within the military have been mixed.

While military personnel declined to conduct a second vote count, they feel invited to play a more active role in the election process.

For the political scientist Carolina Botelho it is clear that the army should distance itself from such invitations and processes.

"The military is a support of the state, not the government," she says.

Brazil: No full military support

It is uncertain to what extent the Brazilian military actually supports Bolsonaro and how far the generals are willing to deviate from basic democratic values.

"It is not clear how large the proportion of military personnel who really support Bolsonaro is," says political scientist Botelho.

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How Jair Bolsonaro would react to a possible election defeat is also completely open.

Only God can remove him from office is just a statement by Bolsonaro, which suggests that he will not be democratically voted out.

However, most experts tend to rule out a classic coup by the armed forces as a possible scenario.

The president's institutional backing is probably not big enough for that.

Unlike in 1964, most of the population is clearly against a putsch.

Parallels to the storming of the Capitol in the United States

However, other forms of unrest are entirely within the realm of possibility.

As a comparison, the riots at the US Capitol in early 2021 come to mind again and again.

Similar to Donald Trump's supporters, Bolsonaro's fans have also shown themselves to be quite violent in the past.

And just like the former US President, Bolsonaro repeatedly incites his supporters to violence through hate speech.

Riots after the elections could therefore also come from citizens.

Which poses a serious risk: thanks to relaxed gun laws, around ten times as many Brazilians now own a gun as five years ago.

The situation before the elections is correspondingly tense.

There are also many people who actively support Brazilian democracy.

In August, more than a million people signed an open letter defending the electronic voting system.

At the same time, the Brazilian President is organizing a huge military parade for September 7th.

Brazil then celebrates its 200-year independence – and demonstrates military strength.