Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 21 a partial mobilization of the war in preparation for the Winter Armageddon.
So what about the situation after the decisive battle, does the decisive battle mean the end of the Ukraine war?
The analysis believes that the Ukrainian war will not end after the Winter Showdown. The result of the Winter Showdown may be to shrink the war as soon as possible, but the hot war will remain after that.
The four states of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye will most likely enter Russia smoothly, which will greatly expand Russia’s strategic depth. Putin’s basic goal of responding to NATO’s eastward expansion and reshaping the security line of defense will be achieved. .
The purpose of Russia launching this war is not to be a protracted war, but to achieve strategic goals through war as soon as possible.
The entry of the four states into Russia is the first fruit that can be obtained.
The conscription of 300,000 troops will not be a fueling tactic, but to shrink the war to defend the results as soon as possible.
Russia does not actually have the strength to eat the entire Ukraine.
The failed siege of Kyiv has shown this.
Therefore, Russia's stated goals of demilitarization and denazification at the beginning are actually unattainable, and this goal of Russia needs to be adjusted.
Smoke rises from the explosion site of a Russian army ammunition depot near the village of Mayskoye in Crimea on August 16, 2022.
An explosion and fire at an ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Crimea on the same day forced the evacuation of more than 3,000 people for the second time in more than a week.
(AP)
The long-term hot war in the future may be a continuous contest between the Russian army and Ukraine's stock military power.
If Russia's winter decisive battle is successful, Russia and Ukraine will continue to maintain a certain degree of hot war on the front lines outside the four states in the future, similar to the normalized war in Udong before.
After all, no one in the Ukrainian government dares to admit defeat, let alone admit defeat. It will be absolutely politically correct to maintain a tough and continuous struggle.
The Ukrainian government's option is to keep fighting at a low level.
Even if Ukraine fails, the West will not suddenly stop supporting Ukraine.
It is to be expected that they do not recognize Russia's annexation of the four states and that Ukraine has failed.
If Russia fails to achieve a milestone victory through Armageddon this winter, Moscow will fall into a very passive war quagmire.
What will meet Russia will be a truly protracted war of attrition and a war of attrition between the West and Russia in Ukraine.
This is something that Russia cannot afford. Even if Russia will continue to mobilize the war to win in the future, the price will be too heavy.
After the four states join Russia, it will be a brand new test.
Whether the West dares to continue attacking territory annexed by Russia is the key.
The entry of the four states into Russia and the recruitment of 300,000 troops is a dangerous flag.
If it is well controlled, Russia will replicate the second Crimea incident in Ukraine, if it is not well controlled, it will be a whole new war.
Russia: The picture shows a reactionary demonstration in Moscow on September 21, 2022. The police took away several demonstrators.
(AP)
Many people believe that after the winter decisive battle, it will be a hot battle that maintains a low intensity, rather than an escalating hot battle.
Because the West is not monolithic when dealing with Russia, the differences in the interests of the United States and Europe as well as the differences within Europe make it difficult for them to continue to hope to maintain the war against Russia after a winter.
With two years left in the Biden administration, a regime change is likely to determine an entirely new U.S. stance on Ukraine.
Whether Zelensky's government can stay in power for a long time is also unknown.
Russia's advantage is political stability.
Putin has time, but the leaders of Ukraine and the United States and many European countries do not necessarily have time for a protracted confrontation.
Russia has a good chance of replicating the new Crimea events this winter, forcing the West to accept the truth.
The West uses proxy wars to kill Russia, while Russia uses annexation tactics to continuously push the risk of war to the West.
In the unavoidable final battle, Putin's courage and vision will help Russia win.
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