Military expert explains three ways Putin could deploy his troops after partial mobilization
Created: 09/24/2022, 06:30
By: Kathrin Reikowski
Russian President Putin has repeatedly threatened to use "all available means" to protect his country.
© Mikhail Klimentyev/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP/dpa
Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization will not change the Ukraine war immediately, says an expert on ARD.
One circumstance in particular could lead to delays on the Russian side.
Berlin/Moscow - "It is a quantitative approach to solving a qualitative problem within the Russian armed forces," says military expert Franz-Stefan Gady after Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization in the Ukraine war.
"I don't think that will turn the tide for Russia," Gady estimates to
tagesschau.de
.
He works for the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London.
In the so-called West, the Kremlin chief interpreted Putin's further escalation of the Ukraine war primarily as a sign of weakness.
The Institute for the Study of War in the USA had analyzed that Putin withheld certain things in his speech on partial mobilization.
What he said: 300,000 reservists are to be drafted into the Russian army.
But what will that actually mean for the further course of the war?
How quickly could the reservists intervene in the course of the war?
Military expert sees three options in the ARD: reservists only ready for action after weeks
After a successful counter-offensive by Ukraine, Russia's armed forces are currently only defending areas that have already been conquered and are not advancing any further.
What is Putin's strategy now?
The military expert sees three options:
Putin has completely new units set up.
Putin has existing units "replenished" with new reservists.
Putin's reservists form new battalion groups that work defensively.
The training of completely new units - option one - would take about three to six months, according to Gady.
Option three would also take several months: For this, Putin would have the reservists formed into small, specialized units of up to 1,000 men.
The expert sees option two as the quickest way to have new reservists intervene in the fighting in Ukraine.
However, only if the reservists were given rapid basic training and supplemented the units already in Ukraine.
That could happen within a few weeks, says Gady.
However, if Putin did not relieve the soldiers who had been fighting for a long time and chose this quick route, Gady sees a threat to the combat morale of the units.
Military expert on Russia's war in Ukraine: Putin lacks good generals
The fact that the training can take a long time is therefore due to a structural peculiarity of the Russian army.
"In contrast to many Western armed forces, the Russian army does not have a central training depot; instead, the individual regiments train the so-called reservists," says Gady.
There would also be a problem with generals and officers in the Russian army.
As became known this week, Vladimir Putin, to the displeasure of his generals, is said to be giving front-line orders,
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In addition, the officers responsible for training have just been sent to Ukraine.
"Many died there, were taken prisoner or are missing." However, the Russian reservists need particularly intensive preparation: "We are talking about people who may have completed basic training and completed military service years ago, but then are no longer called up for reserve exercises became."
In any case, the expert sees Putin's step as a sign that Ukraine can also win the war.
"Putin is running out of options and I think this is the first time he has realized or been informed that Russia can lose this war," Gady said.
A spokesman for Putin canceled all negotiations with Ukraine on Friday.
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