What the polls say about the elections in Italy: the extreme right as the probable winner

Today I tell you about the polls in Italy.

Italians vote on Sunday to configure the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, from which a new government will emerge.

Although polls have not been published for days, they have left two clear forecasts: (1) the majority will probably be for the right-wing coalition;

and (2) the first party in the bloc —and surely also the first national force— will be the Brothers of Italy, the far-right party led by Giorgia Meloni.

The chart shows the latest seat projections:

• The center-right coalition has around 250 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, according to the polls, well above the 200 that mark the majority.

  The group includes, in addition to Meloni's party, Matteo Salvini's League and Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi's brand.

• In second position, with some 85 or 90 seats, appears the left-wing coalition, led by the Social Democrats of the Democratic Party;

  and in third place, with 35 seats, the 5 Star Movement, the anti-system party of a complex nature, as described by Daniel Verdú.

  Another 18 seats would go to the centrist coalition of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and former Minister Carlo Calenda.

In view of these data, the likely outcome of the elections is a right-wing government led by Meloni and Brothers of Italy.

According to Gianmarco Di Lella's calculations, based on the polls and their historical precision, the right will have a majority of seats 19 out of 20 times (that is, with a 95% probability), both in the Chamber of Deputies and in the the Senate.

There are more doubts with the formation of the subsequent government, which will have to be negotiated, but Good Judgment forecasters give Meloni a 78% chance to be the next prime minister.

In addition, if the sum of the right achieves a two-thirds majority, it could even reform the Italian Constitution.

The votes of each party

Although the coalitions seem clear, it is relevant to measure the exact strength of each party to understand the Italian electorate and to anticipate the balance of power within each bloc.

According to the latest polls, the Brothers of Italy will be the first force, with about 25% of the votes, followed by the PD (21% or 22%), the 5 Star Movement (13%-14%), the League (12 %) and Forza Italia (8%).

The trends before the blackout of polls were a relative growth of Brothers of Italy and a fall of the PD.

In August, the two formations were almost tied, but now the former appear four points above.

A result like the one anticipated by the polls will mean a reconfiguration of the Italian right.

In 2018, the League got 17% of the vote and will now drop to 11%, while Forza Italia will drop from 14% to 8%.

In return, Meloni's build will skyrocket, increasing her supports fivefold, from 4.4% to 25%.

Finally, there is a warning before interpreting the first results of next Sunday's vote: the Italian electoral system continues to have a clear majority bias.

Votes and seats are not distributed proportionally, but the seats will tend to concentrate on the forces with the most votes.

This explains why the right-wing coalition has 45% of the vote in the polls and close to 60% of the seats in most projections.

The details are complicated, but, in essence, Italians cast two votes for the Chamber of Deputies: they vote for a person who will represent their single-member district, and also for a multi-member closed list.

Each of the 147 single-member seats goes to the winner of the district, and therefore these will tend to be concentrated in the dominant forces.

Another 245 deputies come out of the second vote, distributed proportionally to the national vote, but it is done with thresholds and in small constituencies (some with only three or four seats), so that a majority bias is also introduced there.

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