After many infectious disease experts, business and political circles called for "customs clearance" with overseas, the government decided that the entry quarantine for overseas and Taiwan will be changed to "0+3" from Monday (26th), and the nucleic acid test before boarding will be replaced by rapid test , Hong Kong residents who have not been vaccinated can board the plane and return to Hong Kong, and the entry limit for the Mainland and Macau will also be cancelled.
Compared with the widely rumored "0+7", the measures announced by Chief Executive Li Jiachao are more aggressive than expected, and the pace of implementation is also quite fast, which is quite unexpected.
The government's decision to relax entry quarantine measures is partly because the epidemic is under control.
Although the number of confirmed cases is still in the thousands and Hong Kong's epidemic prevention has fallen into disrepair, the number of cases has not increased significantly.
Considering that the resilience of the medical system is relatively stable, the director of the Medical and Health Bureau, Lu Yongmao, agrees that there are conditions for further opening up in medicine.
On the other hand, more people are focusing on the fact that the epidemic has affected the economy for nearly three years. In addition, the global economy has faced numerous problems in recent years, and the Hong Kong economy is not optimistic.
The strict quarantine policy not only directly affects the tourism and aviation industries, but also because many international financial institutions and exhibitions are reluctant to accept quarantine, and the functions of Hong Kong's financial and exhibition centers are also harmed. Some people even worry that Hong Kong's status will gradually be equalized. District of Singapore replaced.
Singapore overtook Hong Kong as the world's third-largest financial centre this year, according to the Global Financial Centres Index compiled last week by a British think tank and the China Development Institute.
In order to balance the economy and epidemic prevention and control, Hong Kong can only try to relax entry restrictions.
In addition to Singapore, Japan and Taiwan, two other regions in East Asia that still maintain relatively strict entry restrictions, have recently announced that they will relax entry restrictions. Japan will resume visa-free travel and cancel the number of entries from October 11, while Taiwan The entry limit will also be relaxed in the first phase this Thursday (29th), and the second phase will begin on October 13th to open visa-free travel and implement the "0+7" home quarantine-free policy.
Both places have a high degree of cooperation and competition with Hong Kong in tourism, and they eased entry restrictions at almost the same time, putting Hong Kong under great pressure.
Chief Executive Li Jiachao announced on September 23 that the entry quarantine policy will be relaxed, from the current "3+4" to "0+3" on September 26.
(Photo by Liao Yanxiong)
The epidemic is not the only problem in Hong Kong
Whether from the perspective of the epidemic or the economy, the relaxation of entry restrictions is also a helpless step for Hong Kong at the moment.
Many people hope that Hong Kong will return to normal from the epidemic, thinking that the economic problems can be solved.
Financial Secretary Chen Maobo pointed out last month that as long as the epidemic is under control, he is cautiously optimistic about Hong Kong's economy in the second half of the year.
However, the economic problems faced by Hong Kong are quite complex, and the troubles caused by the epidemic are only one of the more urgent issues at the moment.
The global economy is experiencing a "perfect storm", such as the Fed's interest rate hike, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the Sino-US wrestling, all of which continue to bring heavy blows to the economy.
Even if all quarantine measures in Hong Kong are now lifted, economic activity cannot return to pre-epidemic levels immediately, and the return of the epidemic alone will not solve Hong Kong's economic problems.
Due to the severe economic difficulties, the government has pushed forward the measures to return to normal while maintaining strict control of public health conditions.
There is still a lot of work to be done in order for Hong Kong's economy to bottom out and to prepare for how we should respond if the epidemic changes again and the situation gets out of control.
Government officials have often pointed out that Hong Kong is an export-oriented and open economy, and will inevitably be more vulnerable to the impact of the macroeconomic environment. mention this.
But they tend to only stress that the government will continue to pay attention to risks, without specifying how Hong Kong will respond to these external events.
At first glance, one might think that Hong Kong can only wait in silence for these economic woes to pass.
Facing a severe environment for Hong Kong's economy, it is necessary to support innovation and development. In addition to relying on the invisible hand of an efficient market, it is also necessary to extend the visible hand of a promising government.
(Photo by Liang Pengwei)
In fact, precisely because Hong Kong is an economy that is more vulnerable to external factors, we should take precautions and take the initiative to mitigate the negative impact of these factors as much as possible.
There are many examples in history that tell us that sitting idle on changes in the macro environment will not lead to good results.
Due to its unique political status and geographical location, the Port of Venice in Italy was the main trading port of the Mediterranean in the Middle Ages, especially from the beginning of the Crusades to the Renaissance, when it mastered the trade routes between Europe and the East.
However, after Portugal and Spain discovered the Cape of Good Hope and the New World after the 16th century, the importance of the Mediterranean route declined, and eventually even Venice fell.
Facing global problems should not lie flat
In the past, Hong Kong's success was due to the timing, location, and people. But now, facing the unprecedented changes in a century, there should be a policy response and an offense as a defense, not just "laying down".
We cannot change many external problems, but Hong Kong is not helpless.
Take the epidemic as an example. Although we have relaxed entry arrangements in order to open up to the outside world, Hong Kong still has to control the epidemic through internal policies, including maintaining the "vaccine passport" and enhancing the response capacity of the medical system.
Economically, Hong Kong has more to do.
In the face of rising interest rates and weakening global demand, many people think that Hong Kong, which wants to maintain a linked exchange rate, has little room to respond to US interest rate hikes.
However, even if Hong Kong does not change its linked exchange rate in the short term, it can more actively diversify its trade focus from Europe and the United States to the Greater Bay Area and Southeast Asia.
Opening up more shipping routes to ports related to Southeast Asia and the "Belt and Road" initiative, as well as proactively joining major supply chains, can cushion the impact of weakening demand in Europe and the United States.
In terms of finance, the global economic layout has also changed.
The U.S. stock market’s initial public offerings (IPOs) raised nearly 95 percent less than the same period last year, but China’s IPOs increased by more than 40 percent, and Asia’s overall IPOs accounted for 68 percent of the world’s total, surpassing the U.S. for the first time.
Chinese and emerging Asian companies turn back to Asia to raise capital, which is naturally an opportunity for Hong Kong's financial industry.
Even if Hong Kong cannot change the global economic downturn, it can attract more high-quality Chinese companies and emerging Asian market companies to list in Hong Kong to consolidate its status as a financial center and reduce the flow of capital due to US dollar interest rate hikes.
However, Hong Kong does not seem to have seized the opportunity. "Bloomberg" recently pointed out that Hong Kong's IPOs this year have fallen by 78% compared with the same period last year.
The IPO cost of Chinese-funded companies in the United States is getting higher and higher, and it is believed that Chinese new economy companies listing in Hong Kong will become a more mainstream choice.
(Reuters)
In May 2020, the central government put forward the theory of domestic and international dual circulation, advocating the "internal circulation" with the national unified market as the main body and the "external circulation" of international opening to support China's economic development.
Under the concept of "One Country, Two Systems", Hong Kong has a special status in this dual-circulation system.
In his speech on July 1 this year, President Xi Jinping clearly pointed out that Hong Kong must maintain its unique status and advantages, and the central government supports Hong Kong in expanding smooth and convenient international ties.
And Li Jiachao also often emphasizes that Hong Kong should act as a bridge between China and foreign countries and play the role of connecting overseas channels.
As an important hub connecting the internal circulation of the country and the external circulation of the world, even in the face of external headwinds, Hong Kong should actively plan how to integrate into the overall situation of national development to cope with the unprecedented changes in a century, and play a more important role, not just Waiting for fate or someone else's arrangement.
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