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Power supply in winter: how likely is the blackout? Expert explains "riskiest scenario"

2022-09-25T04:28:50.057Z


Power supply in winter: how likely is the blackout? Expert explains "riskiest scenario" Created: 09/25/2022, 06:16 By: Matthew Schneider How secure is the German power supply in winter? A precise analysis of the network operators shows that things could get tight. But there are developments that give hope. Munich – In the shadow of the gas crisis, the situation on the European electricity mark


Power supply in winter: how likely is the blackout?

Expert explains "riskiest scenario"

Created: 09/25/2022, 06:16

By: Matthew Schneider

How secure is the German power supply in winter?

A precise analysis of the network operators shows that things could get tight.

But there are developments that give hope.

Munich – In the shadow of the gas crisis, the situation on the European electricity market has gradually escalated.

Winter is now approaching and the political warnings of a large-scale network failure – colloquially known as a blackout – are getting louder.

But with the calls, a lot gets mixed up.

We analyzed the stress test - and show where the problems really lie.

Fear of blackout in Germany: what was analyzed?

stress test is available

On behalf of the Green Federal Ministry of Economics, the four German transmission system operators undertook a more stringent stress test, which is available to our editorial team.

The aim was to clarify whether the German power grid can withstand various hypothetical crisis scenarios.

For this purpose, the failure of various power plants and the massive operation of electronic fan heaters were simulated to the hour.

Detlef Fischer, General Manager of the Bavarian Energy and Water Industry Association, explains: “One of the biggest problems at the moment is that France currently has just under half of its nuclear power plant fleet connected to the grid due to repairs, maintenance work and low river levels.

Germany, among others, must now compensate for this.”

But the Federal Republic would like to forego exports in order to protect its gas-fired power plants.

In the worst scenario, France only manages to keep two-thirds of its nuclear capacity connected to the grid by winter.

"In addition, a drought situation was simulated, which makes it difficult to transport coal via the rivers," Fischer continues.

"These scenarios were embedded in February 2012, the coldest month in ten years." According to the German weather service, temperatures there were sometimes a good minus 30 degrees.

An extreme scenario in which gas consumption would increase significantly.

"That's why a physical gas shortage was also included in the worst scenario, which estimates 50 percent of the remaining gas power plant output in southern Germany and Austria as unavailable," says Fischer.

Meanwhile, Robert Habeck would like to fight the crisis with a series of energy saving regulations.

As of October 1st, new rules will therefore come into force.

Supply situation in Germany: What is really the problem?

"The problem would not be the amount of electricity, but much more the transport," explains Detlef Fischer.

What is meant is that even in the worst scenario, there is not enough electricity in the European grid for a maximum of twelve hours to fully cover Germany's needs everywhere (see box).

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The transport is more critical: "In order to transport electricity over long distances, you need special high-voltage lines," explains a spokeswoman for the transmission system operator Amprion, who helped design the stress test study.

If production in one region fails, it cannot always be compensated for by overproduction from other regions.

How likely is a power failure in Germany?

(symbol photo) © Federico Gambarini/dpa

Energy expert: "The most risky scenario is a dry, cold and windy winter"

"So the question is not only how much electricity a power plant generates, but also where it feeds the electricity into the grid and how much transport capacity there is," summarizes the Amprion spokeswoman.

"The riskiest scenario is therefore a dry, cold and windy winter," explains Detlef Fischer.

"Southern Germany would be particularly affected: Here, the demand from industry is high and generation from wind power is low.

If the worst framework conditions come together in the stress test, things will get very tight.” Because in the north there are 30 gigawatts of wind power available at peak – 20 times the capacity of Isar 2. But that is far more than the grid can handle.

Originally, the Südlink line was supposed to connect the north German wind turbines with the south German industrial centers from 2022.

Bavaria's ex-Prime Minister Horst Seehofer had rejected the construction in 2014.

In the meantime, the lines are being laid underground – experts now only expect their use at the end of the 1920s.

If the scenario described above were to occur, the additional output of around eight large gas-fired power plants from abroad would be needed to fully supply all regions of Germany during the most critical hours.

How realistic is the blackout?

shortage "unlikely"

The result of the stress test: In some scenarios, regional power outages could occur within a few hours.

But the situation is currently easing somewhat, explains Detlef Fischer: "It's raining more again, which is causing the levels in the rivers to rise.

As a result, coal freighters can operate again and French nuclear power plants are going back online.” Almost all plants are expected over the winter.

In addition, the gas storage tanks are filling up at record speed: "We have reached 90 percent filling level well ahead of schedule - that makes a gas shortage less likely," says Fischer.

An expectation shared by the market: the gas price has almost halved since the end of August.

"How gas consumption actually develops depends on the temperatures in winter and the behavior of consumers," explains Fischer.

In the best-case scenario, the reservoirs should still be 40 percent full in February.

"If the situation continues to develop positively, the most severe shortage scenarios will become much less likely."

Blackout: What needs to be done in Germany?

"This is the most important tool"

But it is still too early to breathe a sigh of relief: "Even in more harmless scenarios, both a gas and a local power shortage cannot be ruled out," explains Fischer.

"We have to save what we can, because less demand prevents failures, lowers prices and thus energy costs for consumers." In addition, all generation capacities, including coal-fired power plants, would have to be connected to the grid.

“And we need the remaining nuclear power plants for the time being: their additional supply lowers electricity prices and calms the industry.

They also make a non-negligible contribution to grid stability.”

In the end, however, a large gap would remain: “In the rather improbable extreme scenario, we are missing more than eight gigawatts, which we could not replace with any German power plant because of the missing lines.

We already have to buy the required power in our neighboring countries, not everything has been contracted by a long shot,” says Detlef Fischer.

In case of doubt, however, they have the same problems as in Germany, so there could be delivery failures: “Saving energy is therefore by far the most important tool we have to get through this winter safely.”

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-09-25

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