Putin: Is a confidant already sawing at his chair?
"Looks like he's tasted blood"
Created: 09/25/2022, 14:07
By: Marcus Giebel
Men's group: Yevgeny Prigozhin (fourth from left) sits with several military personnel - it is a sequence from a video that is circulating on the Internet.
© Twitter/@christogrozev
During his presidency, Vladimir Putin has so far successfully kept all opponents at bay.
Will he soon be opposed by a longtime ally?
Munich - As President of Russia, Vladimir Putin understood in his own way how to cement his power.
With a heavy hand.
Anyone who publicly rebels against the Kremlin boss must expect the worst.
His best-known critic, Alexey Navalny, is living in one of the country's most feared prison camps.
Many other opponents of the Kremlin are no longer with us at all;
In short, anyone who publicly takes on Putin appears to be playing with their lives.
Citizens who show up at protests against the Ukraine war or the now proclaimed partial mobilization are not squeamishly pulled out of circulation and have probably spent their last minutes at large for a long time.
The goal behind it should be clear: silence all resistance.
This is how the Putin principle works.
And so, within two decades, he has maneuvered himself into a position in which the 69-year-old apparently no longer fears anything or anyone.
Putin and the Ukraine War: Is the Kremlin boss as firmly in the saddle as before the invasion?
Although little seems to be going according to plan militarily and strategically since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, it seems as if Putin is still as firmly in the saddle as before the attack order was given.
Whom would he have to fear?
Possibly Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The entrepreneur may belong to the Putin camp, but that's exactly why he could be dangerous for the president.
Like the latter, originally from St. Petersburg, Prigozhin became known as "Putin's cook".
He runs the only private restaurant in the Duma building.
But he doesn't just know his stuff in the kitchen.
Prigozhin is considered the financier of the Wagner mercenary group, which is feared beyond Europe and is involved in the Ukraine war alongside Putin's
troops
.
Prigozhin acts as commander.
Just a few days ago, a video that allegedly shows Putin's confidante speaking to prisoners and trying to recruit them caused a stir.
Became known as "Putin's cook": Yevgeny Prigozhin leads the Wagner mercenaries.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Putin and the Wagner mercenaries: video-documented recruitment in prison
In it he says that this war is more complicated than the one in Afghanistan or in Chechnya.
And: “Deserting is the first sin.
Nobody falls behind.
Nobody withdraws.
Nobody goes into captivity.” Alcohol and drugs are also frowned upon, and anyone who joins them for six months will spend this time continuously in the war zone.
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However, he also emphasizes: “Looting is the third sin, including sexual contact with local women … flora, fauna, men … everything.” Men between the ages of 22 and 50 are wanted.
He then reports on a previous operation in which three opponents were killed with knives and seven others wounded.
One of those killed served for 30 years.
Should probably mean: before the Wagnern mercenaries all opponents are equal.
Prigozhin conta Putin?
Video from prison would probably emphasize allegiance
His people are selected very conscientiously, so a lie detector test is also planned.
When the speaker comes back to the ban on rape, he lets it be known: "But I understand that mistakes can happen."
According to the Russian news agency Ria Novosti
, Prigozhin's company Konkord said
about the video: "We can confirm that the man in the video looks a lot like Yevgeny Viktorovich." So there is room for speculation.
In a screenshot, the
NZZ
refers to two "Hero of Russia" medals that are emblazoned on the man's jacket in the video - these were awarded to Prigozhin by Putin.
However, it is also emphasized here that the appearance in prison could hardly have taken place without an order from the Kremlin, because only the President can pardon prisoners.
Video: Putin confidante recruits fighters for Ukraine campaign in prisons
Wagner commander is more present: Apparently, prisoners can hope for amnesty
This is consistent with information from Wall Street Journal
's Matthew Luxmoore
that the man in the video promised amnesty to anyone who would join the fight.
This, too, would only be possible with the approval of the very top.
The prisoners had five minutes to decide.
And get these sentences along the way: "I'll take you with me alive.
But I won't bring everyone back alive." There had been rumors before that Russia was now recruiting some of its troops from prisons - in response to the many dead and wounded at the front.
Videos of Prigozhin: Message to Putin and Kremlin?
Another video fueled even more speculation about Prigozhin.
This shows the Wagner commander getting out of a helicopter in the dark and heading towards a car convoy.
In the next scene he is apparently holding a briefing with the military.
What is surprising is that for a long time there was hardly any up-to-date material from Prigozchin, and the mercenary financier seemed to keep more in the background.
Does he now sense his chance, since Putin's attack on Ukraine threatens to fail and the messed up war could possibly herald the end of his reign?
Does he have to resign soon?
Vladimir Putin could have dug his own political grave with the Ukraine war.
© IMAGO / ZUMA Wire
Is Prigozhin sawing at Putin's chair?
"Looks like he's tasted blood"
Hristo Grozev of the international research network
Bellingcat
wrote: “Prigozhin continues to post videos showing him in his role as supreme commander (in this case at a 3am meeting with his commanders).
Wagner people have told me they would choose him over Putin anytime, and it looks like he's tasted blood."
Anders Östlund also believes that a confrontation between the two alpha animals is possible.
The Swede from the Center for European Politics Analysis (CEPA), who lives in Kyiv, says that Prigozhin has his Wagner mercenaries behind him, and Putin has the National Guard.
The question arises as to which side the secret service, foreign intelligence service or military intelligence service would then be on: "It could be an interesting game after Russia's defeat in Ukraine."
It's not that far yet.
But Putin suffered many setbacks in the course of the fighting.
More than he can handle?
In any case, there are some indications that he will not only have to face open opponents of the Kremlin.
His toughest opponent at home could have been behind him for a long time.
(mg)
