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The EU awaits the prospect of a far-right government in Rome

2022-09-25T10:40:42.996Z


Keys to understanding what a possible victory by Giorgia Meloni and her coalition could trigger in Europe


Italian citizens are summoned to the polls this Sunday in legislative elections that, according to the polls, will bring to power a right-wing coalition with the radical Brothers of Italy party as the protagonist and its leader, Giorgia Meloni, as the probable next Prime Minister. .

If the forecasts are confirmed, it would be the first Executive led by the extreme right in Western Europe in recent history.

The European institutions and the big players in the EU are preparing for a relationship with premises that can lead to friction or even conflict.

Statements made on Friday by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gave a glimpse of the tension underlying the political transition in Italy.

“My attitude is that we collaborate with any democratic government that wants to collaborate with us.

If things go in a difficult direction, as I said with respect to Hungary and Poland, we have tools, "said the president, referring to the prospect of a government led by the extreme right in Rome during a conference in Princeton.

Matteo Salvini, leader of La Liga and an ally of Meloni, was quick to respond via Twitter: “What is it?

A threat?

Shameful arrogance.

Respect the free, democratic and sovereign vote of the Italian people!

Friends of all, servants of no one”.

The episode has shaken the mirage of scrupulous restraint with which the community institutions and the main capitals have generally officially followed the Italian campaign.

But it is obvious that both Brussels and other big players —Berlin, Paris— are preparing for a much more complicated relationship with Rome than the one they had with the Mario Draghi government and, in a certain sense, for sailing in uncharted waters.

The approaches of Meloni's extreme right and those of his main partners —Forza Italia, of Silvio Berlusconi, in addition to the League— configure a broad scenario of possible clashes: the management of the war in Ukraine, immigration, European funds and the reforms and projects linked to them, the fiscal path or the reform of the euro zone.

Taking into account statements, programs or underlying ideology, the potential for strong discrepancies is evident.

However, this does not imply that a stark confrontation will necessarily take place.

The possible future Government of Meloni will embark on its path bridled by a double order of containment networks.

At a European level, the Commission, as Von der Leyen pointed out, has several tools at its disposal, among them the powerful lever of control over the enormous aid funds that Rome has yet to receive and needs.

The willingness of the European Central Bank to intervene in any turbulence in the debt market, on the other hand, is another fundamental key.

At the internal level there are also counterweights, among them, the important figure of the President of the Republic and the Constitutional Court —both respected institutions— or the intangible but relevant influence of the world of industry and finance, reluctant to radical experiences.

Time will tell.

Below are keys to understanding what a possible victory by Meloni and his coalition could unleash in Europe.

Ukraine.

The coalition has wanted to shield this issue to avoid attacks from the opposition and the possibility that it would serve as an argument for not allowing them to govern.

Meloni has been the one who has most firmly defended Italy's adherence to Atlanticist values.

The problem comes from the other two flanks, as has been starkly evident in the final stretch of the campaign.

Silvio Berlusconi has starred in a controversial episode with an appearance on a televised program in which he offered an interpretation of the invasion of Ukraine substantially exculpatory of Vladimir Putin - who would have been forced by different actors on the Russian scene to undertake the offensive - and when describing his goal as "replacing the government of [Volodymyr] Zelensky with a government of decent people."

Berlusconi, it is notorious, has long had a close relationship with Putin, and saw no problem in visiting the annexed Crimea with him against the standards of international law.

But Berlusconi is not the only factor in possible turmoil.

Salvini has maintained an extremely promiscuous relationship with Moscow in recent years, to the point of being investigated for alleged illegal financing on behalf of a Russian gas operation.

The outbursts of him glossing the Russian president as one of the best leaders in the world and his trips to Moscow to pose in front of the Kremlin with a T-shirt with the effigy of the Russian leader are well known.

That is his past, and in the present he advocates withdrawing the sanctions that the EU is imposing on Russia.

"They are ineffective and have not served to stop the war," he told this newspaper just a week ago.

Meloni, and also Berlusconi, despite their vision of the war, are in favor of maintaining the sanctions.

But it is not unreasonable to think that the confrontation with Russia will continue to require difficult, even painful, actions for the EU in the future, and that problematic negotiations will arise along the way.

The club is already working on a new round of sanctions.

Some of those approved were controversial, and others could be.

It cannot be ruled out that, based on a new interpretation of the national interest, the coalition led by Meloni will end up adopting a less constructive stance than the one that the Draghi government has always maintained.

Two attendees at the closing rally of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party in Rome on September 22.

DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)

Immigration.

The first government of the last legislature, formed by the 5-Star Movement and La Liga, has already dealt a very harsh blow to the European Union on account of immigration.

Italy was facing a wave of migration from North Africa (from Libya and Tunisia, mainly) that had undermined the electoral power of the left.

Matteo Salvini turned the issue into his main battle horse, managing to build an entire electoral artifact from the idea of ​​ports closed to immigrants.

As Minister of the Interior, he signed two decrees that prevented NGO boats that had just rescued migrants at sea from entering Italian ports to disembark them.

The move was an end in itself.

But also a form of pressure to reform the Dublin Regulation and increase the solidarity of the rest of the countries with the States that served as gateways for irregular immigration.

If they entered through Italy, Salvini demanded, it did not mean that it was only an Italian problem.

Until he managed to get the passage of each ship distributed among different European countries, he did not let them dock.

Brothers of Italy is aligned with La Liga in terms of the heavy hand in this matter.

His program also provides for the blocking of landings and the creation of application processing centers managed by the EU in extra-European territory.

Today, irregular immigration is once again reaching its maximum (the month of August registered 61% more arrivals than the same month of the previous year), while the broad package of immigration reform remains stuck in Brussels, amid serious discrepancies between countries of first line, second recipients for their high standards of welcome and prosperity, and those who try to wash their hands.

It can be one of the great sources of conflict.

European funds.

One of the great challenges that may come from Rome in the coming months will be the request to rewrite the Recovery Plan presented by Italy, the main recipient of recovery funds (more than 200,000 million euros between loans and non-refundable capital). ).

The potential conflict can occur in both pillars of that great program: about the projects in which to invest the funds, and the internal reforms required to unlock them.

Giorgia Meloni is the main defender of modifying the document drafted by the Executive of Mario Draghi.

The leader of the Brothers of Italy maintains that priorities have changed with the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.

And that the prices and costs assigned to the projects must be updated and, if they are out of the market, discarded.

Meloni is committed to sacrificing a large part of the plan's efforts dedicated to the ecological transition.

The other pending fringe of the Recovery Plan are the structural reforms demanded by Brussels for the collection of funds (Italy has already received the second payment).

The plan outlined by Draghi launched a transformation postponed for decades that basically hung by four threads.

The reform of the Administration, which was completed.

That of Justice, which was practically finished.

And that of the tax system and competition, which are still pending compliance.

It is not clear what the idea of ​​the right-wing coalition is, but the hypotheses of reducing taxes or the implementation of a flat rate of personal income tax have nothing to do with what Brussels expected.

Two men preparing one of Rome's polling offices for this Sunday's election.

GIUSEPPE LAMI (EFE)

Economic policy.

Another sector of potential conflict is that concerning national fiscal management and the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Meloni has tried to convey messages of caution during the campaign, and the Italian risk premium has not suffered major changes in a final stretch in which the polls clearly point to his victory.

But Salvini has traditionally shown opposition to the fiscal corsets of Brussels, and it remains to be seen that this time he ends up accepting the prudent path that the Commission calls for.

Italy has a public debt that is around 150% of GDP.

On the other hand, the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, a pillar of the euro zone, about which the European partners have been discussing for a long time, could be another area in which the Meloni government could play an agitating role.

Although previously, out of clear national interest, Italy was aligned on the side that presses for the pact to be rigid, it is not unreasonable to think that its position under the leadership of Draghi's national unity government would have been more fluid in management. Brussels than that of a new right-wing Executive.

Institutions.

The democratic quality of a Meloni government, like that of any other, will have to be judged on the basis of the facts.

As context, it is useful to note that the Commission has acquired an increasingly vigorous role in its role as guardian of respect for the Treaties, with an interpretation and instruments that have been expanded over time, such as the possibility of withholding funds.

In a seminal speech delivered in Prague, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was very much in favor of continuing on this path and that the Commission be able to block funds for reasons linked to respect for democratic values.

On the other hand, it is also useful to note that Meloni is declared an admirer of Viktor Orbán, whose Government Brussels criticizes for various problematic actions, and has pointed out the enabling value of his electoral victories, paying rather little attention to the conclusions of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to which in the last legislative elections the vote was free, but not fair, due to the serious distortions of public life perpetrated by the Budapest Executive.

Finally, it can be pointed out that Meloni has forcefully declared his will to proceed with a far-reaching reform of the Constitution that would change the model of the Republic from parliamentary to presidential.

Although the government program of his party and of the coalition are not specific in this regard - referring only to the introduction of a system of direct election of the President of the Republic, who is now appointed by parliamentarians and representatives of the regions -, Brothers of Italy in the past expressed their desire to build a presidential model similar to the French one.

In the electoral campaign, Meloni has made it clear that, if he has enough votes in Parliament, he will proceed with the reform, even if the main opposition party disagrees.

The constitutional reform can be achieved with the support of both Houses expressed in two different voting sessions for each one, the second three months away from the first and requiring an absolute majority and subsequent confirmation in a referendum.

Or, in the event of a two-thirds qualified majority, without a referendum.

A road that could be another source of concern.

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Source: elparis

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